Assyriska 1FC Arlanda3

HT 0–1Sun 25 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–186%

Edges3–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 15:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Fourth-placed Arlanda have the better season and a four-match unbeaten run against Assyriska, but they arrive on two straight defeats.

An Arlanda result, draw or win, is the likelier outcome. The quoted prices do not reward it: 1.33 for draw-or-Arlanda, 1.48 for over 2.5 goals and 1.13 for Arlanda to score are all shorter than the case for them.

Context

Arlanda's away defence has held early and opened up after the interval across the tracked window, with the bulk of the damage arriving late. That makes the second half the likelier route for Assyriska, though the base is only seven matches and the most recent away outing ended 0-3 at IF Karlstad.
- Arlanda's seven tracked away matches span 3 August to 10 October 2026.
- In those seven away games they average 0.43 first-half goals against and 1.86 second-half goals against.
- In the same seven matches they average 0.71 first-half goals for and 0.86 second-half goals for.
The June meeting is the only supplied direct competitive reference between these teams this season. FC Arlanda established the margin through an early penalty before extending it later in the match, which gives the rematch concrete recent context. The return fixture is at Assyriska rather than Midgårdsvallen, so the earlier result does not by itself establish the likely balance here.
- FC Arlanda defeated Assyriska FF 2–0 in Ettan Norra on 7 June 2026.
- Anton Charbachi scored a penalty in the fourth minute and Saifur Rehman scored after an assist from Isac Antholm.
- The June fixture took place at Midgårdsvallen, drew 247 spectators and had Erik Enerholm as referee.
- Christophe Lallet managed FC Arlanda and Tino Katsoulakis managed Assyriska FF in that meeting.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 15:39 · Europe/BucharestMatch recordwww.transfermarkt.com · 7 Jun 2026
Assyriska's 13 home league games have averaged 4.3 goals and Arlanda's 13 away games 3.4, which points to an open game. The four meetings between the clubs pull the other way: 0-0 in April 2025, 1-2 in September 2025, a 0-1 friendly in February 2026 and 2-0 in June 2026. Both readings cannot hold, so the goal expectation is the least settled part of the fixture.
- Assyriska's 2026 Ettan Norra home record: 13 games, 27 goals for and 29 against, a 5W-2D-6L return.
- Arlanda's 2026 Ettan Norra away record: 13 games, 24 goals for and 20 against, a 7W-2D-4L return.
- Across the standings table, the two venue splits account for 100 goals in 26 matches.
The 5-1 at Vasalund is the standout result in Assyriska's recent record and shows they can turn a level game into a rout inside 45 minutes. At home the returns are more mixed: a 1-0 win over FBK Karlstad on 11 October sits beside defeats to Piteå (1-2, 27 September) and AFC Eskilstuna (2-5, 17 September).
- Vasalund 1-5 Assyriska, Ettan Norra, 21 September 2026: 0-0 at half-time and 5-1 after the break.
- It is the only match among Assyriska's six most recent competitive fixtures in which they scored more than twice.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or FC Arlanda

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75.2%

−10.2ppshort

Arlanda have been the stronger side all season and have not lost to Assyriska in any recent meeting.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.48fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 67.6%

−9.6ppshort

Both clubs' home and away splits point to open, high-event games rather than tight ones.

Away Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Arlanda over 0.5

1.13fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 88.5%

−10.5ppshort

Arlanda have scored regularly on the road and face a home defence that concedes most weeks.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Arlanda have been the stronger side all season and have not lost to Assyriska in any recent meeting.
- Arlanda are 4th on 48 points; Assyriska are 9th on 35
- Arlanda away league record 7W-2D-4L, 24 goals for and 20 against in 13 games
- Arlanda are unbeaten in the last four head-to-head meetings, winning three of them
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FC ArlandaEstimated chance65%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Both clubs' home and away splits point to open, high-event games rather than tight ones.
- Assyriska's 13 home league games produced 56 goals (27 for, 29 against)
- Arlanda's 13 away league games produced 44 goals (24 for, 20 against)
- Both teams' most recent match finished 1-3
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither defence has been reliable enough at home or away to expect a clean sheet for either side.
- Assyriska scored in all seven home matches in the tracked window
- Assyriska conceded in five of those seven home matches
- Arlanda saw both teams score in 9 of 14 league matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Arlanda have scored regularly on the road and face a home defence that concedes most weeks.
- Arlanda scored in six of seven away matches in the window
- Arlanda have 24 away league goals in 13 games (1.85 per game)
- Assyriska conceded 29 goals in 13 home league games with two clean sheets in seven
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFC Arlanda over 0.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams do most of their scoring and conceding after the break, especially Arlanda away from home.
- Arlanda's away matches average 1.86 second-half goals against
- Arlanda average 1.5 second-half goals against overall
- Assyriska average 1.21 second-half goals for and Arlanda 0.86 in second halves away
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arlanda start games very solidly, so the chance of both teams scoring before the interval is limited.
- Arlanda concede just 0.36 first-half goals per game (five in 14 matches)
- Assyriska's home first halves average 1.0 goal for and 0.57 against
- Arlanda's away first halves average 0.71 for and 0.43 against
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A narrow Arlanda win with goals at both ends fits the scoring profiles of these two teams.
- Home and away splits imply roughly 1.8 goals for Assyriska and 2.0 for Arlanda
- Arlanda won 2-1 at Assyriska in the 2025 meeting
- Arlanda won the June 2026 reverse fixture 2-0
BetBugs · Correct ScorelostAssyriska 1-2 FC ArlandaEstimated chance9%