Assyriska 3Sollentuna FK0

HT 1–0Sun 9 Aug 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Aug 2026, 00:01 · Europe/Bucharest

A draw-heavy H2H and Sollentuna's resilient away form (5 draws in 8) point to a tight contest.

The best value lies in the First-Half Draw (+6pts edge), while Over 2.5 Goals should be avoided due to a negative value gap and recent low-scoring meetings.

Context

Sollentuna away record: W2 D5 L1.
- They have drawn their last two away league games (1-1 at Vasalund, 0-0 at IF Karlstad).
- Only one away loss all season suggests they are resilient but lack a cutting edge.
Assyriska have scored in six of seven home matches (17 goals total).
- They have conceded in six of seven home matches (19 goals total).
- Last five home games: 3-1, 2-2, 4-2, 1-5, 3-4 — all had over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four.
Last five H2H results: 0-0, 2-1, 0-0, 2-0, 1-1.
- Only one of the last five meetings had over 2.5 goals.
- The 0-0 draw in April 2026 shows both teams can cancel each other out.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams consistently score and concede in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely despite a recent 0-0 H2H.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's home attacking output gives them a slight edge, but Sollentuna's resilience away (only 1 loss) and the draw-heavy H2H limit confidence.
- Assyriska home record: 2W-2D-3L, but 17 goals scored in 7 home games (2.43 per game).
- Sollentuna away record: 2W-5D-1L, only 1 loss in 8 away games.
- Assyriska last 5 form: W-W-D-L-L (7 points from 15).
- Sollentuna last 5 form: D-L-L-D-D (3 points from 15).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAssyriskaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna's away draws and Assyriska's home scoring make a home win or draw the most probable double chance outcome.
- Assyriska have lost only 3 of 7 home matches.
- Sollentuna have won only 2 of 8 away matches.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws, 1 Assyriska win, 1 Sollentuna win.
- Sollentuna have drawn 5 of 8 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAssyriska or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sollentuna's tendency to draw at half-time away and the balanced H2H first-half record point to a level score at the break.
- Assyriska home first-half results: 3W-2D-2L.
- Sollentuna away first-half results: 1W-5D-2L.
- H2H last 5 first-half results: 3 draws, 1 Assyriska lead, 1 Sollentuna lead.
- Sollentuna have drawn at half-time in 5 of 8 away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's superior second-half scoring at home gives them a slight edge, but Sollentuna's away resilience keeps confidence low.
- Assyriska home second-half record: 3W-2D-2L.
- Sollentuna away second-half record: 2W-3D-3L.
- Assyriska have scored 1.14 second-half goals per home game vs Sollentuna's 0.63 away.
- H2H last 5 second halves: 2 Assyriska wins, 2 draws, 1 Sollentuna win.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonAssyriskaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While possible given Assyriska's second-half strength, the specific HT/FT combo lacks strong statistical support.
- Assyriska home HT/FT: Draw/Win occurred in 2 of 7 home matches.
- Sollentuna away HT/FT: Draw/Loss occurred in 2 of 8 away matches.
- H2H last 5: no Draw/Assyriska outcome.
- Assyriska have come from behind to win only once at home.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw / AssyriskaEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's home games are consistently high-scoring (avg 5.14 total goals), and their recent form shows a trend for goals, outweighing the low-scoring H2H pattern.
- Assyriska home matches average 5.14 total goals (36 goals in 7 home games).
- Assyriska last 5 matches: 2-0, 2-3, 3-1, 2-2, 0-1 — 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- Sollentuna away matches average 2.13 total goals (17 goals in 8 away games).
- H2H last 5: 0-0, 2-1, 0-0, 2-0, 1-1 — only 2 of 5 over 2.5, but Assyriska home games are high-scoring.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently score and concede in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely despite a recent 0-0 H2H.
- Assyriska have scored in 6 of 7 home matches this season.
- Assyriska have conceded in 6 of 7 home matches.
- Sollentuna have scored in 6 of 8 away matches.
- Sollentuna have conceded in 6 of 8 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show a high frequency of first-half goals, and the H2H pattern supports at least one goal in the opening period.
- Assyriska home first-half goals: 0.9 avg, conceded 0.7 — 71% of home games had a first-half goal.
- Sollentuna away first-half goals: 0.5 avg, conceded 0.7 — 75% of away games had a first-half goal.
- Last 5 H2H: 0-0, 2-1 (1-1 HT), 0-0, 2-0 (1-0 HT), 1-1 (0-0 HT) — 3 of 5 had first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's home second halves are high-scoring, but Sollentuna's away second halves are tighter, making this a marginal call.
- Assyriska home second-half goals: 1.54 avg (scored 1.14, conceded 0.86).
- Sollentuna away second-half goals: 1.13 avg (scored 0.63, conceded 0.50).
- Assyriska last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Sollentuna last 5 away matches: only 2 of 5 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of corner data, the attacking profiles of both teams suggest a reasonable chance of exceeding 8.5 corners, but confidence is low due to missing stats.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided match logs.
- Assyriska's attacking style at home (2.43 goals per game) suggests high corner potential.
- Sollentuna's away matches average 2.13 total goals, indicating moderate corner activity.
- No H2H corner data available.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Assyriska Over 2.5 goals history shows underperformance

Assyriska has seen Over 2.5 goals land in 2 of 5 recent matches (40%). The average estimated probability was 59%, expecting about 3 fulfilled, so actual outcomes fell short. Notably, both home matches hit Over 2.5, while all three away matches missed, suggesting a strong home/away split.

Recent evidence for Assyriska5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Ettan - Norra