Ettan - NorraFull time

Predictions graded

IFK Stocksund2FC Arlanda3

HT 0–2Sat 29 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Edges6–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Aug 2026, 23:28 · Europe/Bucharest

FC Arlanda are favourites, but the best value lies in the double chance (Draw or Arlanda) at 1.38, with a small edge over the implied probability.

Avoid over 2.5 goals and first-half over 0.5 goals, as the odds are significantly higher than our model estimates. Stocksund's loss of midfielder Alexander Johansson further weakens their already poor home form.

Context

IFK Stocksund are 16th in the 16-team Ettan Norra with 11 points, 22 points behind leaders Hammarby Talang.
They have won only two league matches all season and have lost four of their last five, including a 4-3 defeat at Vasalund on 23 August. At home they have one win, four draws and four losses, conceding 27 goals in nine matches. This poor run and low position mean they need points to avoid falling further behind, but their recent form offers little evidence of a turnaround.
- IFK Stocksund are 16th with 11 points from 18 matches, 22 points behind leaders Hammarby Talang.
- They have lost four of their last five league matches, including a 4-3 defeat at Vasalund on 23 August.
- At home they have one win, four draws and four losses, conceding 27 goals in nine matches.
FC Arlanda are fourth in Ettan Norra with 33 points from 18 matches, four points behind leaders Hammarby Talang.
They have won nine league matches and lost only three, and their recent form is positive with a 5-1 home win over FBK Karlstad on 23 August. Away from home they have four wins, two draws and two losses, scoring 15 goals in eight matches. This solid away record and higher league position make them clear favourites against the bottom side.
- FC Arlanda are fourth with 33 points from 18 matches, four points behind leaders Hammarby Talang.
- They won 5-1 at home to FBK Karlstad on 23 August.
- Away from home they have four wins, two draws and two losses, scoring 15 goals in eight matches.
The last two league meetings between these teams were both won by FC Arlanda.
On 18 June 2026, Arlanda won 1-0 at home against Stocksund. In the previous meeting on 23 May 2025, Arlanda won 5-3 at home. These results show Arlanda have had the better of recent encounters, but the sample is small and both matches were at Arlanda's ground, so the away fixture may be different.
- FC Arlanda beat IFK Stocksund 1-0 on 18 June 2026.
- FC Arlanda beat IFK Stocksund 5-3 on 23 May 2025.
IFK Stocksund defender Ben Magnusson is available for this match under the clubs' cooperation agreement with Sirius.
His availability gives Stocksund another defensive option, though it is not confirmed whether he will start. The arrangement could affect their defensive organisation if he is selected.
- IK Sirius announced on 1 August that Ben Magnusson could train and play matches with IFK Stocksund under the clubs’ cooperation agreement.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 09:54 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

FC Arlanda

1.95fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 51.3%

0.0ppshort

Arlanda's superior league position and away record make them favourites, but the odds imply a higher probability than our model estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.43fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high scoring averages and Stocksund's home games are high-scoring, making over 2.5 goals likely.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams regularly score and concede, suggesting both teams to score is probable.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.18fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Arlanda's superior league position, away form, and recent H2H win, combined with Stocksund's key departure, make them favourites.
- FC Arlanda rank 4th with 33 points, while IFK Stocksund rank 16th with 11 points.
- FC Arlanda away record: 4W-2D-2L, IFK Stocksund home record: 1W-4D-4L.
- FC Arlanda won the reverse fixture 1-0 on 18 June 2026.
- IFK Stocksund lost key midfielder Alexander Johansson (5 goals, 5 assists in 14 matches) in July.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFC ArlandaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Stocksund's poor home form and Arlanda's solid away record, Arlanda or draw is highly likely.
- IFK Stocksund have only 1 home win in 9 matches.
- FC Arlanda have lost only 2 of 8 away matches.
- FC Arlanda are 22 points ahead of IFK Stocksund in the table.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FC ArlandaEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half performances are inconsistent, making a draw at half-time a plausible outcome.
- IFK Stocksund led at half-time in 33% of matches, trailed in 47%.
- FC Arlanda led at half-time in 27% of matches, trailed in 13%.
- Both teams have similar first-half goal averages.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an Arlanda win is a possible scenario given their second-half strength.
- FC Arlanda have won 9 of 18 matches, often after a level first half.
- IFK Stocksund have drawn at half-time in 20% of matches.
- FC Arlanda's away matches often see a tight first half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/FC ArlandaEstimated chance20%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring averages and Stocksund's home games are high-scoring, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- IFK Stocksund average 1.8 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per match.
- FC Arlanda average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match.
- Last 3 H2H meetings produced 1, 3, and 8 total goals.
- IFK Stocksund home matches average 5.4 total goals (22 scored, 27 conceded in 9).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly score and concede, suggesting both teams to score is probable.
- IFK Stocksund scored in 13 of 18 league matches.
- FC Arlanda scored in 14 of 18 league matches.
- IFK Stocksund conceded in 15 of 18 league matches.
- FC Arlanda conceded in 12 of 18 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- IFK Stocksund average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
- FC Arlanda average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.35 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be higher scoring for both teams, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- IFK Stocksund average 1.1 second-half goals scored and 1.2 conceded.
- FC Arlanda average 1.0 second-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Combined second-half goal average is 2.1 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without corner data, this is speculative, but attacking play suggests a moderate chance of over 8.5 corners.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams.
- Both teams average high shot counts, which often correlate with corners.
- IFK Stocksund's attacking style may produce corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the stakes and lack of card data, a moderate card count is possible.
- Card data is unavailable for both teams.
- IFK Stocksund's relegation battle may increase intensity.
- FC Arlanda's away matches may see tactical fouls.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 34% vs our estimate 30% leaves no value; Stocksund's home form is poor and they lost a key midfielder.

Prediction history

FC Arlanda has been highly reliable when projected to win

FC Arlanda has fulfilled 4 of 4 win predictions, a 100% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability was 47.5%, with an expected 1.9 fulfilled predictions, indicating strong overperformance. All four wins occurred both home and away, with no missed results.

Recent evidence for FC Arlanda4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jun·Svenska Cupen