Assyriska 1Pitea IF2

HT 0–1Sun 27 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 01:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Assyriska, eighth in Ettan Norra, host a Piteå side sitting 14th, and the season's one meeting went Assyriska's way 2–0 at Piteå.

Assyriska score twice as often per game and are the likelier winner, but four home wins in 11 and 27 home goals conceded keep Piteå in it. Two quoted prices have something: Piteå to draw or win at 2.1 and Piteå to win at 4. The other reviewed selections ask for more than the form behind them justifies.

Context

Assyriska's season splits sharply: their away record is healthier than the one they carry at home.
Assyriska have scored plenty at their own ground but conceded almost as often, so a controlled home performance is not the pattern their season describes. Their away return of 17 scored and 13 conceded in 12 games is the stronger half of the season, and Piteå would need their modest away scoring to hold up for the visitors to take anything.
- Standings fetched 25 September 2026: Assyriska are 8th in Ettan Norra on 32 points from 23 league games (9 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats, 42 scored, 40 conceded).
- Their 2026 league home record is 11 games: 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, 25 goals scored and 27 conceded.
- Their 2026 league away record is 12 games: 5 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, 17 scored and 13 conceded.
Piteå's away statistics describe a side that scores little and concedes steadily on the road.
Piteå were shut out in three of those seven away games and scored in four, so a high-scoring away performance is not what their record suggests. One win and two draws from seven is a thin return, but it is enough to make a share of the points a more plausible away outcome than a win.
- Piteå's tracked away matches: 7 games from 7 June to 13 September 2026, 1 win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game.
- They scored in 4 of those 7 away matches and kept 1 clean sheet.
- Piteå's 2026 league away record is 11 games: 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, 13 scored and 19 conceded.
The clubs' only meeting this season came in April, when Assyriska FF left Piteå with a 2–0 win, and the return fixture now asks Piteå IF to handle the same opponent on the road. It matters because that April afternoon is the single head-to-head reference point between these squads, and Assyriska FF's 5–1 win at Vasalund on 21 September shows a side still capable of the attacking output that produced it. The clear limitation is that one meeting four months ago settles little on its own, since both squads have since moved through very different runs of results, so the April scoreline frames the fixture rather than forecasting it.
- The sides' most recent meeting came on 12 April 2026 in Ettan Norra.
- Assyriska FF won that match 2–0 away at Piteå IF.
ReportedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 01:13 · Europe/BucharestSoccerVital match previewwww.soccervital.com · 12 Apr 2026
Osayi carried Assyriska FF through August, the month that produced the club's run of clean sheets and, on the back of it, his best-goalkeeper recognition for Sweden's August round. It gives the home side a concrete individual story, but it is backward-looking: Assyriska FF conceded five at home to Athletic Eskilstuna on 17 September and one more in the 5–1 win at Vasalund, so the honour describes late-summer form rather than current defensive solidity. The same recognition credits seven clean sheets from five August appearances, a figure that does not reconcile with Assyriska FF's listed August results, so the size of that run should be read loosely.
- K. Osayi took August's best-goalkeeper recognition in Sweden after keeping goal for Assyriska FF.
- That recognition followed five appearances in the month, during which he kept clean sheets for Assyriska FF.
- K. Osayi started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 01:13 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double Chance First HalflostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Assyriska or Draw

1.18fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 84.7%

−4.7ppshort

Assyriska start strongly at home while Piteå rarely score early, making the home side the likelier half-time leader. Neither side scores early often, and Assyriska have not managed a first-half goal in three straight matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Assyriska are the stronger side over the season and score twice as often per game, even though their own home results are only ordinary.
- Assyriska are 8th on 32 points from 23 league games; Piteå are 14th on 18.
- Assyriska average 2.07 goals scored per tracked match (14 games); Piteå 1.13 (15 games).
- Assyriska won the April meeting at Piteå 2–0.
- Assyriska's league home record is 4W 2D 5L with 25 scored and 27 conceded in 11.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAssyriskaEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.15
The read
Assyriska start strongly at home while Piteå rarely score early, making the home side the likelier half-time leader.
- Assyriska average 1.43 first-half goals in tracked home matches, conceding 0.57.
- Piteå average 0.33 first-half goals per tracked match and 0.43 away.
- Assyriska led at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostAssyriskaEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Assyriska score heavily after the break while Piteå's away second-half output is modest.
- Assyriska average 1.21 second-half goals for and 0.86 against per tracked match.
- Assyriska scored 16 second-half goals across their last six matches.
- Piteå average 0.71 second-half goals per tracked away match.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostAssyriskaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Assyriska are the stronger side over the season and score twice as often per game, even though their own home results are only ordinary. Assyriska give up goals regularly at home, so Piteå winning away is a genuine possibility rather than a remote one.
- Assyriska are 8th on 32 points from 23 league games; Piteå are 14th on 18.
- Assyriska average 2.07 goals scored per tracked match (14 games); Piteå 1.13 (15 games).
- Assyriska conceded 27 goals in 11 home league games.
- Piteå's league away record is 2W 3D 6L with 13 scored and 19 conceded.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAssyriska or Pitea IFEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Assyriska start strongly at home while Piteå rarely score early, making the home side the likelier half-time leader. Neither side scores early often, and Assyriska have not managed a first-half goal in three straight matches.
- Assyriska average 1.43 first-half goals in tracked home matches, conceding 0.57.
- Piteå average 0.33 first-half goals per tracked match and 0.43 away.
- Piteå average 0.33 first-half goals and 0.87 first-half goals against per tracked match.
- Assyriska have scored no first-half goal in their last three matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostAssyriska or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals7 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Both clubs' matches have been high-scoring, and Assyriska's home league games in particular have averaged well over three goals.
- Assyriska's tracked matches average 3.43 total goals (2.07 for, 1.36 against).
- Assyriska home league games have produced 25 scored and 27 conceded in 11.
- Piteå's tracked matches average 2.87 total goals.
- Five of Assyriska's last six matches had three goals or more.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Assyriska almost always score and concede at home, while Piteå find the net in more than half their matches.
- Assyriska scored in 12 of 14 tracked matches; Piteå scored in 8 of 15.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Assyriska's 7 tracked home matches.
- Assyriska conceded in 6 of 7 tracked home matches; Piteå scored in 4 of 7 away.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Assyriska score at well above two goals a game at home and Piteå concede regularly on the road.
- Assyriska average 2.43 goals in 7 tracked home matches.
- Assyriska's league home total is 25 goals in 11 games.
- Piteå concede 1.86 goals per tracked away match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostAssyriska over 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Piteå rarely score more than once away from home, making a single goal or none the likelier outcome.
- Piteå average 1.14 goals in 7 tracked away matches.
- Piteå scored one goal or fewer in four of their last six matches.
- Piteå were shut out in 3 of 7 tracked away matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostPitea IF under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Assyriska concede in almost every home game, so Piteå scoring at least once is the more likely outcome.
- Assyriska conceded in 6 of 7 tracked home matches.
- Assyriska conceded 27 goals in 11 league home games.
- Piteå scored in 8 of 15 tracked matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPitea IF to scoreEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Assyriska have scored in all but one tracked home match, making a Piteå shutout unlikely.
- Assyriska scored in 6 of 7 tracked home matches.
- Assyriska's league home total is 25 goals in 11 games.
- Piteå kept only 1 clean sheet in 7 tracked away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAssyriska to scoreEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
The two teams' first-half scoring and conceding rates point to at least one goal before the break in most matches.
- Assyriska home first half: 1.43 goals for, 0.57 against per match.
- Piteå: 0.33 first-half goals for, 0.87 against per match.
- Four of Assyriska's last six matches had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Piteå's very low first-half scoring makes it unlikely that both sides find the net before the break.
- Piteå have scored 5 first-half goals in 15 tracked matches.
- Assyriska's last three matches were goalless at half-time.
- Piteå were goalless at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score and concede after the break, and recent matches have regularly produced multiple second-half goals.
- Assyriska's tracked home matches average 2.29 second-half goals.
- 16 second-half goals were scored across Assyriska's last six matches.
- Piteå's tracked matches average 1.67 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance61%