Ettan - NorraFull time

Predictions graded

FC Stockholm Internazionale4FC Arlanda1

HT 1–1Sun 16 Aug 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Edges5–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Aug 2026, 23:54 · Europe/Bucharest

FC Stockholm Internazionale are the likely winners based on form and H2H, but the odds offer no value (1.45 implies 69% vs our 55%).

Avoid the match winner and double chance markets; the best angle may be a live bet if Stockholm start slowly, as Arlanda's away resilience could keep the game tight.

Context

Won 4 of last 5 league matches.
- Scored 11 goals in those 5 matches.
- Averaging 2.1 goals per match overall this season.
Away record: W4 D2 L1.
- Only one away defeat all season.
- Conceded just 1.0 goals per away match on average.
Last 3 H2H: 0-0, 0-0, 1-1.
- Only 2 total goals in those 3 matches.
- Stockholm's 4-0 win over Arlanda came in 2021, not recent.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

FC Stockholm Internazionale

1.45fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Home advantage and superior recent form, combined with a strong H2H record, make FC Stockholm Internazionale the likely winner.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Stockholm Internazionale or Draw

1.13fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 88%

−8.0ppshort

FC Stockholm Internazionale's strong home form and H2H dominance make them unlikely to lose, while FC Arlanda's solid away record adds some draw risk.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have strong attacking numbers and recent high-scoring games, but the odds are slightly against us.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability, but the odds are fair with no edge.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, but the odds are far too low to offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and superior recent form, combined with a strong H2H record, make FC Stockholm Internazionale the likely winner.
- FC Stockholm Internazionale have won 4 of their last 5 league matches, scoring 11 goals.
- FC Arlanda have won 3 of their last 5 league matches but lost 1-5 to Hammarby Talang.
- FC Stockholm Internazionale are unbeaten in the last 3 H2H meetings (2 wins, 1 draw).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFC Stockholm InternazionaleEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Stockholm Internazionale's strong home form and H2H dominance make them unlikely to lose, while FC Arlanda's solid away record adds some draw risk.
- FC Stockholm Internazionale have lost only 2 of 8 home matches this season.
- FC Arlanda have lost only 1 of 7 away matches this season.
- The last 3 H2H meetings have ended in 2 FC Stockholm wins and 1 draw.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFC Stockholm Internazionale or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Stockholm's tendency to start strong gives them an edge, but the first-half result is often close, so confidence is low.
- FC Stockholm Internazionale led at half-time in 47% of their matches.
- FC Arlanda led at half-time in 40% of their matches.
- FC Stockholm have scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFC Stockholm InternazionaleEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Stockholm's home dominance could lead to a full-time win, but leading at half-time and maintaining it is less certain.
- FC Stockholm Internazionale have won both halves in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- FC Arlanda have lost both halves in 1 of their last 5 matches.
- FC Stockholm have a strong home record, winning 5 of 8 home games.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostFC Stockholm Internazionale / FC Stockholm InternazionaleEstimated chance30%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong attacking numbers and have been involved in high-scoring games recently, suggesting over 2.5 goals is likely.
- FC Stockholm Internazionale average 2.1 goals per match overall and 1.9 at home.
- FC Arlanda average 1.9 goals per match overall and 2.0 away.
- Both teams have scored in 4 of FC Arlanda's last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability, and FC Stockholm's occasional defensive lapses at home increase the chance of both teams scoring.
- FC Arlanda have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- FC Stockholm Internazionale have conceded in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Both teams scored in the most recent H2H meeting (1-1).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals a strong possibility.
- FC Stockholm Internazionale average 0.8 first-half goals per match.
- FC Arlanda average 0.7 first-half goals per match.
- In 4 of FC Stockholm's last 5 matches, there was at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half often sees more goals as teams push for results, but the probability is only moderate given the limited data.
- FC Stockholm Internazionale average 1.3 second-half goals per match.
- FC Arlanda average 1.2 second-half goals per match.
- Both teams have shown ability to score late, with FC Stockholm scoring 3 second-half goals in their last match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without corner data, this is a speculative pick based on the attacking nature of both teams.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Both teams average over 1.5 goals per game, suggesting attacking play that could produce corners.
- No direct corner stats to support a strong prediction.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Derby-like intensity between closely ranked teams might lead to more cards, but without data this is a low-confidence pick.
- Card data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- The match is between two top-four teams, which could increase intensity and fouls.
- No direct card stats to support a strong prediction.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance40%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 69% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

FC Stockholm Internazionale has been highly reliable when projected to win

FC Stockholm Internazionale has fulfilled 6 of 6 win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 55.7% and expected 3.3 wins. All six matches resulted in wins, with no draws or losses. The current prediction of 55% is within the historical range of 42% to 72%.

Recent evidence for FC Stockholm Internazionale6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Ettan - Norra