Karlbergs BK1FC Arlanda0

HT 0–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–1017%

Edges0–40%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 23:35 · Europe/Bucharest

FC Arlanda are the likely winners or at least avoid defeat (72% double chance), but the market offers little value there.

The standout edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.20, with a +9.5pt edge driven by both teams' higher scoring rates after the break.

Context

Karlbergs BK sit 9th with 25 points, while FC Arlanda are 5th with 36 points in Ettan Norra.
Arlanda's away record includes 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 18 goals scored and 15 conceded. Karlberg's home record is 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 11 goals scored and 15 conceded. This contrast suggests Arlanda may be more comfortable away from home than Karlberg is at home, but the sample sizes are small and recent form can shift quickly.
- FC Arlanda away record: 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in 9 matches.
- Karlbergs BK home record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses in 9 matches.
FC Arlanda defender V. Elfstrom has left the club, joining IF Elfsborg on a contract through 2030.
His confirmed departure removes a central-defence option for Arlanda's trip to Karlbergs. The team will need to adjust its back line without him, though the specific replacement is not identified in the available information.
- IF Elfsborg announced an agreement with FC Arlanda for Elfström’s transfer on 1 September.
- Elfsborg confirmed that Elfström signed a contract running through the 2030 season.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 23:33 · Europe/Bucharest
Karlbergs BK are 9th in Ettan Norra with 25 points from 20 matches.
In their last five league matches, Karlberg lost 0-3 to Piteå on 6 September, 0-3 to AFC Eskilstuna on 23 August, and 1-2 to Enköping on 7 August. They did win 2-0 against Stocksund on 15 August and drew 0-0 with Hammarby Talang on 31 August. This mixed form shows inconsistency, but the recent heavy defeats may indicate defensive issues that Arlanda could exploit.
- Lost 0-3 to Piteå on 2026-09-06.
- Lost 0-3 to AFC Eskilstuna on 2026-08-23.
- Lost 1-2 to Enköping on 2026-08-07.
FC Arlanda midfielder M. Gorgos was sent off in the 1-2 home defeat to Umeå FC on 6 September.
No official disciplinary decision has been located for Saturday, so his availability remains uncertain. If the red card leads to a suspension, Arlanda would need to alter its midfield selection, but as of now this is only a watch item.
- Match records list Mark Gorgos as sent off in FC Arlanda’s 1–2 home defeat to Umeå FC on 6 September.
To watchSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 23:33 · Europe/BucharestFotboll.com match reportwww.fotboll.com · 6 Sep 2026Sportstats match recordwww.sportstats.se · 6 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams show attacking intent and defensive vulnerability, supported by recent goal averages and H2H trends.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Arlanda's superior league position and stronger away form give them the edge over Karlbergs BK's inconsistent home performances.
- FC Arlanda sit 5th with 36 points, 11 points ahead of Karlbergs BK (9th, 25 points).
- FC Arlanda away record: 5W 2D 2L, 18 goals scored, 15 conceded in 9 away matches.
- Karlbergs BK home record: 3W 2D 4L, 11 goals scored, 15 conceded in 9 home matches.
- H2H last 5: FC Arlanda won 2, Karlbergs BK won 1, 2 draws.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFC ArlandaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Arlanda's strong away form and Karlbergs BK's home struggles make the away side or draw highly likely.
- FC Arlanda have lost only 2 of 9 away matches this season.
- Karlbergs BK have won only 3 of 9 home matches.
- H2H last 5: FC Arlanda unbeaten in 3 of 5 (2W 1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostFC Arlanda or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into the break level, making a first-half draw plausible.
- Karlbergs BK led at half-time in 53% of matches, trailed in 13%.
- FC Arlanda led at half-time in 33% of matches, trailed in 13%.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Arlanda's stronger second-half scoring suggests they may edge the second period.
- FC Arlanda average 1.0 second-half goals scored vs 1.1 conceded.
- Karlbergs BK average 0.6 second-half goals scored vs 0.8 conceded.
- FC Arlanda have a better overall goal difference (+10 vs -3).
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostFC ArlandaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A level first half followed by an FC Arlanda win is a plausible but low-probability sequence.
- Karlbergs BK drew at half-time in 34% of matches.
- FC Arlanda won 50% of away matches.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half-time, with FC Arlanda winning 2 matches overall.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / FC ArlandaEstimated chance22%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Arlanda winning both halves is possible but unlikely given Karlbergs BK's resilience early on.
- FC Arlanda led at half-time in 33% of matches and won 50% of matches.
- Karlbergs BK trailed at half-time in only 13% of matches.
- FC Arlanda have won both halves in 2 of last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostFC ArlandaEstimated chance18%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlbergs BK's strong first-half record makes them unlikely to be behind at the break.
- Karlbergs BK led at half-time in 53% of matches and drew in 34%.
- FC Arlanda trailed at half-time in only 13% of matches.
- Karlbergs BK have not trailed at half-time in 87% of matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonKarlbergs BK or DrawEstimated chance65%

Goals0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show attacking intent and defensive vulnerability, supported by recent goal averages and H2H trends.
- Karlbergs BK average 1.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match over last 15, with 8 of 15 matches over 2.5 goals.
- FC Arlanda average 1.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match over last 15, with 9 of 15 matches over 2.5 goals.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3 of 5 produced over 2.5 goals, including 3-1 and 3-2 scorelines.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently find the net while also conceding, making BTTS a strong possibility.
- Karlbergs BK have scored in 12 of last 15 matches and conceded in 10 of 15.
- FC Arlanda have scored in 13 of last 15 matches and conceded in 10 of 15.
- H2H last 5 meetings: both teams scored in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, but first-half totals can be volatile, so confidence is low.
- Karlbergs BK average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded per match.
- FC Arlanda average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded per match.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.8 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show higher scoring rates in the second half, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Karlbergs BK average 0.6 second-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match.
- FC Arlanda average 1.0 second-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
- Combined second-half goal average is 1.7 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have first-half scoring ability, but the low conceded averages reduce the likelihood.
- Karlbergs BK average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded.
- FC Arlanda average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Both teams scored in first half in 2 of last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance30%

Prediction history

FC Arlanda has been highly reliable when projected to win

FC Arlanda has fulfilled 4 of 4 win predictions, a 100% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability was 47.5%, yet all four matches ended in FC Arlanda victories. The current prediction of 42% is below the historical range of 45-55%, suggesting the model is less confident than recent evidence would imply.

Recent evidence for FC Arlanda4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jun·Svenska Cupen