Vasalunds IF1FC Arlanda4

HT 0–2Sun 4 Oct 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–285%

Edges6–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 17:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Fourth-placed Arlanda, on a three-match winning run, visit a Vasalund side sitting twelfth and without two suspended players.

Arlanda are the likelier winners, and four reviewed prices carry an edge: Arlanda to win at 2.5, Arlanda to win or draw at 1.5, Arlanda to be ahead at half-time at 2.9, and over 2.5 goals at 1.6. Both teams to score at 1.48 and a first-half goal at 1.25 offer less than the records justify.

Context

Vasalund go into this home fixture without Tobias Westin, who is suspended after accumulating yellow cards, so the defender cannot be selected at Skytteholms IP. Vasalund conceded five at home to Assyriska FF on 21 September, so they lose a body in the part of the side that has been leaking goals. The ban covers this fixture rather than a fitness problem, so it signals nothing beyond the Arlanda game, and who steps in is a selection question the team sheet will answer.
- Vasalunds IF defender Tobias Westin is suspended for the fixture against FC Arlanda after accumulating yellow cards.
- T. Westin started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 17:43 · Europe/BucharestVasalunds IF vs FC Arlanda match pagewww.transfermarkt.com · 2 Oct 2026
Lundström is suspended for the same reason as Tobias Westin, leaving Vasalund without two players for this fixture. The two bans fall on different units, a defender and a midfielder, so a single reshuffle is unlikely to cover both. It is a one-match absence rather than an injury, and its weight depends on whether Lundström would otherwise have started, which is not established here.
- Vasalunds IF midfielder John Lundström is suspended for the fixture against FC Arlanda after accumulating yellow cards.
- J. Lundström started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 17:43 · Europe/BucharestVasalunds IF vs FC Arlanda match pagewww.transfermarkt.com · 2 Oct 2026
The only meeting between these clubs so far this season finished 2-1 to Arlanda on 3 April 2026, so the visitors bring a head-to-head result into Solna. That scoreline predates the summer swing in both clubs' results, and Vasalund have since produced a 4-3 home win over Stocksund as well as a 1-5 home defeat by Assyriska FF. A single April game is thin evidence for the return, but it is the only direct comparison the campaign has produced.
- FC Arlanda beat Vasalunds IF 2-1 on 3 April 2026 in Ettan Norra.
- Anton Charbachi, Muhammad Ali Akbar Khan and Viggo Elfström scored in that match.
ReportedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 17:43 · Europe/BucharestVasalunds IF vs FC Arlanda, 3 April 2026forzafootball.com · 3 Apr 2026
Ali Khan has been named in a national-team camp for the FIFA ASEAN Cup while leading Vasalund's scoring with six goals and seven assists in Ettan Norra. If that commitment overlaps this fixture, the hosts would be without their most productive attacker for a home game against Arlanda. When he is due to join up is not established, so his involvement stays open rather than assumed.
- Ali Khan is included in Pakistan's FIFA ASEAN Cup camp.
- Ali Khan has six goals and seven assists for Vasalunds IF this season.
- A. Khan started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 17:43 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Arlanda have the stronger league record and recent momentum.
- Arlanda are 4th with 45 points; Vasalund are 12th with 27.
- Arlanda have won their last three matches, scoring 2, 4 and 2 goals.
- Arlanda won the first meeting this season 2-1.
- Vasalund are without suspended Tobias Westin and John Lundström.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFC ArlandaEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves involving these teams have often been tight.
- Arlanda's overall first-half goals-against average is 0.286.
- Vasalund's home first-half total goals average is 1.625.
- Arlanda's away first-half total goals average is 1.0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vasalund are more productive after the break at home, while Arlanda concede more in second halves.
- Vasalund's home second-half goals-for average is 0.875; goals-against is 1.25.
- Arlanda's away second-half goals-for average is 0.833; goals-against is 1.667.
- Arlanda's overall second-half goals-against average is 1.071.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostVasalunds IFEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams have shown they can be hard to separate, and a first-half draw is the most likely half-time score. Arlanda have the stronger league record and recent momentum.
- Last season's meeting at Vasalund ended 0-0.
- Vasalund have drawn 2 of 12 home league matches; Arlanda have drawn 2 of 11 away league matches.
- Arlanda are 4th with 45 points; Vasalund are 12th with 27.
- Arlanda have won their last three matches, scoring 2, 4 and 2 goals.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FC ArlandaEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves involving these teams have often been tight. Arlanda have the stronger first-half goal difference and often lead at the break.
- Arlanda's overall first-half goals-against average is 0.286.
- Vasalund's home first-half total goals average is 1.625.
- Arlanda's overall first-half goals-for average is 0.929; goals-against is 0.286.
- Arlanda's away first-half goals-for average is 0.667; goals-against is 0.333.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or FC ArlandaEstimated chance78%

Goals8 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both teams concede regularly, and the home and away goal averages point to a high-scoring game.
- Vasalund home matches average 3.75 total goals (1.625 for, 2.125 against).
- Arlanda away matches average 3.5 total goals (1.5 for, 2.0 against).
- Vasalund overall matches average 3.47 total goals; Arlanda overall average 3.07.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Both sides have scored in a majority of their matches.
- Vasalund's home matches have seen both teams score in 5 of 8.
- Arlanda's away matches have seen both teams score in 3 of 6.
- Vasalund have scored in 13 of 15 competitive matches; Arlanda in 12 of 14.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Arlanda's away scoring average and recent away wins suggest they can score at least twice.
- Arlanda average 1.5 goals per away match in the window.
- Their league away record shows 20 goals in 11 matches.
- They scored 2 at Gefle and 3 at Stocksund in recent away wins.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFC Arlanda over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arlanda have scored in 12 of 14 competitive matches.
- Arlanda have scored in 12 of 14 competitive matches.
- Arlanda have failed to score in only 2 of 14 competitive matches.
- Arlanda away have failed to score in only 1 of 6.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Arlanda to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vasalund have scored in most home matches.
- Vasalund have scored in 13 of 15 competitive matches.
- Vasalund scored in 6 of 8 home matches in this window.
- Arlanda have kept six clean sheets in 14 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonVasalunds IF to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
First-half goals are likely given both teams' first-half scoring and conceding.
- Arlanda's overall first-half goals-for average is 0.929.
- Vasalund's home first-half total goals average is 1.625.
- Arlanda's away first-half total goals average is 1.0.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arlanda's low first-half goals-against makes a first-half both-teams-score unlikely.
- Arlanda's overall first-half goals-against average is 0.286.
- Vasalund's home first-half goals-for average is 0.75.
- Arlanda's away first-half goals-against average is 0.333.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half goal averages point to at least two goals.
- Vasalund's home second-half total goals average is 2.125.
- Arlanda's away second-half total goals average is 2.5.
- Expected second-half goals from these averages is 2.31.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance67%