IF Karlstad3FC Arlanda0

HT 1–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–936%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 00:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Second-placed Arlanda, chasing promotion, visit a Karlstad side that has drawn four of its last five.

Arlanda's away scoring and four straight wins make them the likelier winners, but Karlstad's 2-1 head-to-head edge and Arlanda's 1.86 goals conceded per away match keep it open. Two prices hold up: Arlanda to win at 3.6 and Arlanda to be ahead at half-time at 4.0. The first-half goal, half-time draw, Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score prices do not.

Context

Winning 4-1 at Vasalund on 4 October kept Arlanda second, and the same round closed with FC Stockholm nine points clear at the top. That gap turns this trip to Karlstad into a match Arlanda have to win if the promotion chase is to stay live into the closing rounds, rather than a fixture they can absorb a slip in. The cushion was built by a Stockholm side that has led the division for months, so Arlanda's position is strong without being secure. Karlstad's own habit of drawing games is the particular reason this looks like a fixture where a visiting side can go and chase three points.
- FC Arlanda won 4-1 away at Vasalund on 4 October 2026 and lie second in Ettan Norra.
- FC Stockholm's 3-0 win over Assyriska FF left them top and nine points ahead of FC Arlanda.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 00:33 · Europe/Bucharest
A side that has stopped converting matches into wins shapes a fixture differently from one that is merely mid-table: Karlstad's last five league games produced four draws and their last league victory came in early August. Arlanda arrive off a 4-1 away win at Vasalund, so the contrast between the two recent records frames the match. The practical question is whether Karlstad's habit of parity holds against an opponent with promotion pressure to win away games. The limitation is that a run of draws describes results rather than approach, and one early goal can break the pattern entirely.
- IF Karlstad's five matches before this fixture produced four draws and one defeat.
- Their recent draws include 1-1 results against Piteå on 3 October 2026 and Karlbergs BK on 27 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 00:33 · Europe/BucharestKarlstad recent form and head-to-headwww.fotmob.com · 8 Oct 2026
A defender who both scores and creates from dead balls gives Arlanda a source of chances that does not depend on open-play rhythm on the road, as shown by the free kicks that shaped the 4-1 win at Vasalund on 4 October. Against a Karlstad side that has drawn four of its last five games, one set piece can settle a match that stays tight for long spells. It also spreads the visitors' threat beyond their attackers. The limitation is that a single match is a thin basis for calling this a habit, and both free kicks came with Arlanda already in front.
- Carl Norberg scored his first goal for FC Arlanda with a free kick in the 23rd minute of the 4-1 win at Vasalund on 4 October 2026.
- A second Norberg free kick in the same match led to a headed Arlanda goal.
- C. Norberg started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 00:33 · Europe/Bucharest
Arlanda win away games more often than not and score at two goals a game on their travels, so this trip holds no particular fear for them. Karlstad's own home record — six wins and only three defeats in 12 league home matches — is the counterweight. The 12-match sample covers the season to date and describes results rather than a guarantee of a repeat.
- FC Arlanda's Ettan Norra away record in 2026 is 7 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 12 matches.
- Arlanda have scored 24 goals and conceded 17 in those 12 away league matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.60
The read
Arlanda's away scoring and current run of results are the strongest single body of evidence here, and Karlstad have struggled to score at home.
- Arlanda have 8 wins in 14 tracked league matches and sit second on 48 points.
- Their tracked away record is 4 wins and 3 losses with 1.86 goals scored per away match.
- Arlanda have won their last four, including 4-1 at Vasalund on 4 October.
- Karlstad have won once in six tracked home matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFC ArlandaEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves involving these two have been low-scoring, which makes level at the break the single most likely outcome.
- Karlstad's tracked home matches average 1.17 first-half goals in total.
- Arlanda's tracked away matches average 1.15 first-half goals in total.
- Arlanda concede just 0.29 first-half goals per away match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Arlanda score regularly after the break and Karlstad have been unable to reply in second halves at home.
- Arlanda score 1.00 second-half goal per tracked away match.
- Karlstad concede 0.83 second-half goals per tracked home match.
- Karlstad have not scored a second-half goal at home in the tracked window.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostFC ArlandaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad's habit of taking a point from tight, low-scoring games keeps a drawn match firmly in play. Arlanda's away scoring and current run of results are the strongest single body of evidence here, and Karlstad have struggled to score at home.
- Karlstad have drawn 6 of 14 tracked league matches, including four of their last five.
- Arlanda have drawn none of their 7 tracked away matches.
- Arlanda have 8 wins in 14 tracked league matches and sit second on 48 points.
- Their tracked away record is 4 wins and 3 losses with 1.86 goals scored per away match.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or FC ArlandaEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves involving these two have been low-scoring, which makes level at the break the single most likely outcome. Arlanda's strong first-half scoring and tight early defence make them the more likely side to lead at the break.
- Karlstad's tracked home matches average 1.17 first-half goals in total.
- Arlanda's tracked away matches average 1.15 first-half goals in total.
- Arlanda average 0.86 first-half goals per tracked away match and 1.07 overall.
- Arlanda concede only 0.29 first-half goals per tracked away match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or FC ArlandaEstimated chance78%

Goals5 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Arlanda's away matches have produced goals at both ends, which lifts the combined total even against Karlstad's low-scoring home profile.
- Karlstad's tracked matches average 2.71 goals in total; Arlanda's average 3.36.
- Arlanda's 7 tracked away matches average 3.71 goals in total.
- Karlstad's 6 tracked home matches average 2.0 goals in total.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both sides have scored regularly in their own venue splits, and neither defence has been reliable enough to expect a shutout.
- Both teams scored in 10 of Karlstad's 14 tracked matches and 8 of Arlanda's 14.
- Karlstad scored in 4 of their 6 tracked home matches; Arlanda scored in 6 of their 7 tracked away matches.
- Karlstad kept 1 clean sheet in 6 home matches; Arlanda kept 2 in 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad have produced little at home in this window, so keeping them to one goal or none is the more likely outcome.
- Karlstad average 0.67 goals per tracked home match.
- Karlstad failed to score in 2 of their 6 tracked home matches.
- Karlstad have not won a league match since 8 August.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostIF Karlstad under 1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad have rarely been opened up heavily at home, so holding Arlanda to one goal or none is slightly more likely than not.
- Arlanda's tracked away matches average 1.86 goals scored.
- Arlanda have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 tracked league matches.
- Karlstad kept 1 clean sheet in 6 tracked home matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonFC Arlanda under 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad have conceded in almost every tracked home game and Arlanda score regularly on the road.
- Karlstad kept 1 clean sheet in 6 tracked home matches.
- Arlanda scored 13 goals in 7 tracked away matches.
- Karlstad concede 1.33 goals per tracked home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFC Arlanda to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arlanda's away defence has conceded regularly in this window, making a home goal the more likely outcome.
- Karlstad scored in 4 of their 6 tracked home matches.
- Arlanda conceded 1.86 goals per tracked away match.
- Arlanda kept only 2 clean sheets in 7 tracked away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonIF Karlstad to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams' first-half goal rates put a single goal before half-time as the more likely outcome than none.
- Karlstad's tracked home matches average 1.17 first-half goals.
- Arlanda's tracked away matches average 1.15 first-half goals.
- Arlanda scored in the first half of three of their last five matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
The low first-half scoring rate on both sides makes it unlikely that both teams score before the break.
- Arlanda concede only 0.29 first-half goals per tracked away match.
- Karlstad's tracked home first halves produce 1.17 goals in total.
- Arlanda are yet to concede twice before half-time in the tracked away sample.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Karlstad's goalless home second halves pull the half total down even though Arlanda's away games have been more open.
- Karlstad have scored no second-half goals in 6 tracked home matches.
- Karlstad's tracked home second halves average 0.83 goals in total.
- Karlstad's overall second-half goals against average is 0.93.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

FC Arlanda: 4/4 recent winner projections matched

4 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring FC Arlanda matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for FC Arlanda4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jun·Svenska Cupen