Ettan - NorraFull time

Predictions graded

FC Arlanda0Pitea IF0

HT 0–0Sun 9 Aug 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–722%

Edges1–614%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Aug 2026, 00:01 · Europe/Bucharest

FC Arlanda are strong favorites at home to struggling Pitea IF, but the 1.43 match winner odds offer no value.

The most balanced betting angles are both teams to score (1.75) and over 2.5 goals (1.60), though edges are marginal. Avoid handicap and first-half result markets due to efficient pricing.

Context

Pitea IF away record: 2W-1D-4L, 9 scored, 13 conceded.
- Conceded 2+ goals in 5 of 7 away matches.
- Only one clean sheet all season, and none away from home.
Last four home league matches: 1W, 2D, 1L (vs Karlstad, Stocksund, Karlberg, Gefle).
- Scored only 4 goals in those four games, conceding 4.
- Earlier home wins were against weaker sides; recent opponents have been tougher.
Trailed at half-time in 5 of 7 away games.
- First-half goals conceded per away game: 1.2.
- Only led at half-time once on the road (vs Sollentuna).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Arlanda

1.43fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 70%

0.0ppshort

FC Arlanda are 4th with a strong home record (4W-3D-1L) while Pitea IF are 15th with a poor away record (2W-1D-4L) and lost the reverse fixture 2-1.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Arlanda or Draw

1.11fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 90%

0.0ppshort

FC Arlanda have lost only once at home this season, while Pitea IF have lost 4 of 7 away games, making a home win or draw highly likely.

HT/FTlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

FC Arlanda at half-time / FC Arlanda at full-time

2.13fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 47%

0.0ppshort

Pitea IF trailed at half-time in 10 of 15 matches overall and 5 of 7 away, while FC Arlanda led at the break in 3 of 8 home games and won all three.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches, and Pitea IF's away defense concedes 1.86 goals per game on average.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in the majority of their recent matches, and Pitea IF's defensive record away from home suggests they will concede.

Total Goals HomelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 1.5

1.50fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 66.7%

−1.7ppshort

FC Arlanda have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches, and Pitea IF have conceded 2+ goals in 5 of their 7 away matches this season.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Pitea IF frequently concedes early, trailing at half-time in 67% of matches, and FC Arlanda have scored in the first half in 4 of their last 5 matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Arlanda's strong league position, superior home form, and recent H2H win over struggling Pitea IF indicate a high probability of a home victory.
- FC Arlanda: 4th in league, 29 pts from 15 games (8W-5D-2L), goal diff +9.
- Pitea IF: 15th in league, 9 pts from 15 games (2W-3D-10L), goal diff -18.
- FC Arlanda home record: 4W-3D-1L, 10 goals scored, 6 conceded.
- Pitea IF away record: 2W-1D-4L, 9 goals scored, 13 conceded.
- H2H: FC Arlanda won 2-1 away vs Pitea IF on 2026-05-03.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFC ArlandaEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given FC Arlanda's strong home resilience and Pitea IF's poor away form, the likelihood of FC Arlanda avoiding defeat is very high.
- FC Arlanda home record: only 1 loss in 8 home games.
- Pitea IF away record: 4 losses in 7 away games.
- FC Arlanda overall form: 8 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses in 15 matches.
- Pitea IF overall form: 2 wins, 3 draws, 10 losses in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFC Arlanda or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pitea IF's tendency to trail at half-time, especially away, combined with FC Arlanda's solid first-half performances at home, points to a home lead at the break.
- FC Arlanda led at half-time in 6 of 15 matches (40%).
- Pitea IF trailed at half-time in 10 of 15 matches (67%).
- FC Arlanda home first half record: led in 3 of 8, drew 4, lost 1.
- Pitea IF away first half record: trailed in 5 of 7.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFC ArlandaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Arlanda's ability to lead at half-time and hold on for wins, especially at home, against a Pitea IF side that often loses after trailing, supports a HT/FT home double.
- FC Arlanda led at HT and won FT in 5 of 15 matches.
- Pitea IF trailed at HT and lost FT in 8 of 15 matches.
- FC Arlanda home: led at HT and won FT in 3 of 8.
- Pitea IF away: trailed at HT and lost FT in 4 of 7.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostFC Arlanda/FC ArlandaEstimated chance45%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches for both teams show a tendency for over 2.5 goals, and Pitea IF's leaky defense away from home supports a higher-scoring game.
- FC Arlanda last 5 matches: 1-5, 6-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-0 (3 of 5 over 2.5).
- Pitea IF last 5 matches: 0-2, 1-3, 2-2, 0-2, 0-2 (3 of 5 over 2.5).
- FC Arlanda home goals per game: 1.25; Pitea IF away goals conceded per game: 1.86.
- H2H: 3 goals in the only meeting.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent ability to score, and Pitea IF's defensive frailties combined with FC Arlanda's occasional home concessions make both teams scoring likely.
- FC Arlanda scored in 13 of 15 league matches; conceded in 10 of 15.
- Pitea IF scored in 10 of 15 league matches; conceded in 14 of 15.
- Pitea IF away: scored in 6 of 7 away games.
- FC Arlanda home: conceded in 5 of 8 home games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
FC Arlanda's home defensive record is not solid, and Pitea IF has been able to score on the road, reducing the chance of a home clean sheet.
- FC Arlanda kept only 3 clean sheets in 8 home games.
- Pitea IF failed to score in only 1 of 7 away games.
- FC Arlanda conceded in 5 of last 6 home matches.
- Pitea IF scored in 4 of last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPitea IF to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Arlanda's recent home scoring form and Pitea IF's poor away defense suggest the home side is likely to score at least twice.
- FC Arlanda scored 2+ goals in 4 of last 5 home matches.
- FC Arlanda average home goals: 1.25, but recent form shows higher output.
- Pitea IF conceded 2+ goals in 5 of 7 away matches.
- H2H: FC Arlanda scored 2 goals away vs Pitea IF.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostFC Arlanda over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pitea IF frequently concedes early, and FC Arlanda often scores in the first half, making a first-half goal highly probable.
- FC Arlanda first half goals per game: 0.7; conceded 0.3.
- Pitea IF first half goals conceded per game: 1.2.
- FC Arlanda led at half-time in 40% of matches; Pitea IF trailed in 67%.
- Last 5 FC Arlanda matches: first half goals in 4 of 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without team-specific corner data, the prediction relies on league averages, but confidence is low due to lack of evidence.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in provided stats.
- General league trends: Ettan Norra matches average around 9-10 corners.
- No specific corner stats to adjust probability.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1st Half Result odds imply a 51% chance, close to our 55% estimate, leaving minimal edge. The market is efficient here.

Prediction history

FC Arlanda has been highly reliable when projected to win

FC Arlanda has fulfilled all 4 of its match winner predictions. The average estimated probability was 47.5%, yet the team won every match, outperforming the expected 1.9 wins. The current prediction of 65% is above the historical range of 45–55%, indicating stronger confidence than in past projections.

Recent evidence for FC Arlanda4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jun·Svenska Cupen