Vasalunds IF1Assyriska 5

HT 0–0Mon 21 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges6–275%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 06:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Assyriska's superior league position, balanced away record and recent head-to-head edge make Draw or Assyriska at 1.70 the standout value, with a secondary lean to Over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.85.

Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes are the most likely outcomes but are already priced at 1.33, so they offer little margin, and the outright winner markets should be avoided.

Context

Vasalund sit 12th in Ettan Norra with 24 points from 22 games, six points above the relegation places. Their home record is 5-2-4 with 18 goals scored and 18 conceded in 11 home matches.
Their away record is 1-4-6 with 15 scored and 25 conceded, so the venue is the clearest dividing line in their season. Assyriska's away record is balanced at 4-3-4 with 12 scored and 12 conceded, which suggests Vasalund's home advantage is real but not overwhelming. The limit is that Vasalund have lost two of their last three home league games, so the home split is not currently protecting them.
- Vasalund home record: 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses in 11 games, 18 goals for and 18 against.
- Vasalund away record: 1 win, 4 draws, 6 losses in 11 games, 15 goals for and 25 against.
- Vasalund have lost two of their last three home league matches, including a 2-3 defeat to Enköping on 2026-09-06.
Assyriska are 8th in Ettan Norra with 29 points from 22 games, with a goal difference of -2. Their away record is 4-3-4 with 12 goals scored and 12 conceded.
The two recent losses matter because Assyriska conceded twice before half-time in each, and their season average of 0.7 first-half goals conceded is lower than the 1.5 goals they concede per game overall. If that early concession pattern continues, Vasalund's 0.7 first-half goals per game could find space. The counterweight is that Assyriska won four straight league games before this run, so two defeats do not erase their away balance.
- Assyriska lost 2-5 at home to AFC Eskilstuna on 2026-09-17, trailing 0-2 at half-time.
- Assyriska lost 1-2 away to Enköping on 2026-09-10, trailing 0-1 at half-time.
- Before those defeats, Assyriska won four consecutive league matches from 2026-08-01 to 2026-09-04.
Vasalund are 12th in Ettan Norra with 24 points from 22 games and a goal difference of -10. They have conceded 43 goals in 22 matches, the second-highest total in the division.
The defensive record is the concrete issue: Vasalund have conceded two or more in each of their last three defeats, and their season average of 1.7 goals conceded per game is higher than Assyriska's 1.5. That gives Assyriska's 1.7 goals per game a plausible route. The limit is that Vasalund kept a clean sheet in their most recent match, a 0-0 home draw with Hammarby Talang on 2026-09-17.
- Vasalund's last four league results: D 0-0 vs Hammarby Talang (home, 2026-09-17), L 1-2 at FBK Karlstad (2026-09-12), L 2-3 vs Enköping (home, 2026-09-06), L 2-3 at Umeå FC (2026-08-30).
- Vasalund have conceded 43 goals in 22 league games, an average of 1.7 per match.
Vasalund's most recent competitive match was a 0-0 home draw with Hammarby TFF on 17 September, four days before this fixture.
The club report noted Hammarby TFF's first chance did not arrive until the 63rd minute, indicating Vasalund limited clear opportunities for long spells. That single sample suggests Assyriska may find space harder to come by, though one match cannot establish a repeatable pattern.
- Vasalund drew 0–0 with Hammarby TFF on 17 September.
- The club report said Hammarby's first chance came in the 63rd minute.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 06:28 · Europe/BucharestVasalund – Hammarby TFF 0–0www.vasalund.com · 17 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Assyriska sit five points and four places above Vasalund with a balanced away record, and the H2H psychology favours them in recent meetings, though Vasalund's home form keeps this only a moderate edge.
- Assyriska 8th on 29 pts vs Vasalund 12th on 24 pts after 22 rounds
- Assyriska away record: 4W-3D-4L, 12 scored, 12 conceded in 11 away matches
- Vasalund home record: 5W-2D-4L, 18 scored, 18 conceded in 11 home matches
- H2H last 5: Assyriska won 3, Vasalund won 2 (including 3-1 and 3-0 Assyriska wins)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAssyriskaEstimated chance44%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's superior league position, balanced away record and recent H2H edge make them unlikely to lose, while Vasalund's poor recent form caps their win probability.
- Assyriska unbeaten in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings (2 wins, 1 draw)
- Vasalund form DLLLW with only 1 win in last 5 league matches
- Assyriska away: 4W-3D-4L — 7 of 11 away games without defeat
- Vasalund home: 5W-2D-4L — 6 of 11 home games without defeat
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or AssyriskaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's stronger half-time leading rate and Vasalund's tendency to trail at the break give Assyriska a modest first-half edge, though the market remains low-confidence given limited first-half data.
- Assyriska led at half-time in 40% of last 15 matches vs Vasalund's 20%
- Assyriska scored 2 first-half goals in 3 of last 15 matches
- Vasalund trailed at half-time in 33% of last 15 matches
- H2H 2026-06-26: Assyriska led 3-1 at home vs Vasalund
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostAssyriskaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's frequent half-time leads and H2H dominance make a wire-to-wire win plausible, but the low base rate keeps confidence low.
- Assyriska led at half-time in 40% of last 15 matches
- Assyriska won 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Vasalund trailed at half-time in 33% of last 15 matches
- Assyriska away form: 4W-3D-4L with 12 scored, 12 conceded
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostAssyriska / AssyriskaEstimated chance26%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's stronger half-time leading rate and Vasalund's low half-time leading rate make a half-time draw or Assyriska lead the most likely outcome.
- Assyriska led at half-time in 40% of last 15 matches
- Vasalund trailed at half-time in 33% of last 15 matches
- Vasalund led at half-time in only 20% of last 15 matches
- H2H 2026-06-26: Assyriska led at half-time
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or AssyriskaEstimated chance62%

Goals7 of 9 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides carry high combined goal baselines and a H2H pattern of open, high-scoring games, and Vasalund's recent matches have been consistently leaky, supporting a goals-heavy match.
- Vasalund last 15: 1.5 goals for, 1.7 conceded per match (2.9 combined baseline)
- Assyriska last 15: 1.7 goals for, 1.5 conceded per match (3.2 combined baseline)
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 3,1,2,3,3 goals — four of five went over 2.5
- Vasalund's last 5 matches: 0-0, 1-2, 2-3, 2-3, 4-3 — 4 of 5 with 3+ goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have near-constant scoring and conceding records across the last 15 matches, and the H2H pattern shows both sides finding the net regularly.
- Vasalund scored in 12 of last 15 and conceded in 13 of last 15
- Assyriska scored in 13 of last 15 and conceded in 12 of last 15
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 4 of 5 meetings
- Vasalund home record: 18 scored, 18 conceded in 11 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-half goal averages sit near 1.6 per match, and Assyriska's tendency to start fast (2 first-half goals in several recent games) gives a modest edge to an early goal.
- Vasalund first-half goals: 0.7 for, 0.9 conceded per match average
- Assyriska first-half goals: 0.9 for, 0.7 conceded per match average
- Last 5 H2H first halves produced 1,1,2,2,1 goals — two of five over 1.5
- Assyriska scored 2+ first-half goals in 3 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have seen most goals arrive after the break, and their defensive records suggest second-half goals are likely.
- Vasalund's last 5 matches produced 2+ second-half goals in 4 of 5
- Assyriska's last 5 matches produced 2+ second-half goals in 3 of 5
- Combined second-half scoring in recent H2H meetings has been consistently high
- Both teams average over 1.5 goals conceded per match across last 15
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vasalund's home scoring rate of 1.64 per game and their regular scoring across recent matches make a 2+ home goal output plausible.
- Vasalund home record: 18 goals in 11 home matches (1.64 per game)
- Vasalund scored 2+ goals in 4 of last 15 matches
- Vasalund scored in 12 of last 15 matches overall
- H2H 2026-03-22: Vasalund 1-1 Assyriska at home
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostVasalunds IF over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's consistent scoring across recent matches, including 2+ goals in over half their last 15, supports a 2+ away goal output despite a modest away average.
- Assyriska away record: 12 goals in 11 away matches (1.09 per game)
- Assyriska scored 2+ goals in 8 of last 15 matches
- Assyriska scored in 13 of last 15 matches overall
- H2H 2026-06-26: Assyriska 3-1 Vasalund
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAssyriska over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vasalund's near-constant conceding record and Assyriska's regular scoring make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Vasalund conceded in 13 of last 15 matches
- Vasalund home record: 18 conceded in 11 home matches
- Assyriska scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- Assyriska scored 2+ goals in 8 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAssyriska to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's regular conceding record and Vasalund's home scoring rate make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Assyriska conceded in 12 of last 15 matches
- Assyriska away record: 12 conceded in 11 away matches
- Vasalund scored in 12 of last 15 matches
- Vasalund home record: 18 scored in 11 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonVasalunds IF to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's low clean-sheet rate combined with Vasalund's consistent home scoring makes an away win-to-nil unlikely.
- Assyriska kept clean sheets in only 3 of last 15 matches
- Vasalund scored in 12 of last 15 matches
- Vasalund home record: 18 scored in 11 home matches
- H2H 2026-06-26: Vasalund scored 1 in a 3-1 Assyriska win
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance78%