Ettan - NorraFull time

Predictions graded

FC Arlanda5FBK Karlstad1

HT 5–1Sun 23 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Aug 2026, 07:31 · Europe/Bucharest

No clear value in the main markets; the home win and double chance are overpriced, while BTTS and first-half goals are heavily overpriced.

The only marginal edge is the first-half draw at 2.30, but the margin is thin. Monitor Karlstad’s lineup after their midweek cup win—rotation could shift the match toward a low-scoring Arlanda result.

Context

FBK Karlstad played on 20 August, three days before this match.
- The cup win secured a place in the winter group stage, so the match was competitive.
- No injury news is available, but rotation is a credible risk after a short rest.
Home record: 4W 4D 1L, 10 goals for, 6 against.
- Recent home results include 0-0 vs Piteå and 1-1 vs Sollentuna.
- Arlanda failed to score in the first half in 7 of their last 10 matches.
Away record: 4W 2D 2L, 16 goals for, 9 against.
- Karlstad scored in 7 of 8 away matches.
- Their away games include a 5-1 win at Piteå and a 3-1 loss at Stockholm Internazionale.
23 May 2026: FBK Karlstad 0-0 FC Arlanda.
- Both teams had 0 goals at half-time and full-time.
- No other head-to-head data exists.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

FC Arlanda

2.00fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 50%

0.0ppshort

FC Arlanda's home form is solid but not dominant, and the market price implies a 50% chance, which is above our 40% estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Arlanda or Draw

1.35fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 74.1%

−4.1ppshort

The market price implies a 74% chance, which is slightly above our 70% estimate, leaving no value.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in the majority of their home/away matches, but the odds imply a higher probability than our model suggests.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

The odds heavily favor a first-half goal, but our model suggests a lower probability based on recent first-half scoring patterns.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Arlanda's solid home form and slightly better league position give them a narrow edge, but FBK Karlstad's strong away scoring record makes this a close contest.
- FC Arlanda home record: 4W 4D 1L, 10 goals for, 6 against in 9 home matches
- FBK Karlstad away record: 4W 2D 2L, 16 goals for, 9 against in 8 away matches
- FC Arlanda overall form last 5: LDLWW; FBK Karlstad last 5: WDLLW
- H2H: only meeting ended 0-0
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFC ArlandaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Arlanda have lost only once at home this season, making them unlikely to lose outright, while FBK Karlstad's away form is decent but not dominant.
- FC Arlanda home record: 4W 4D 1L (only 1 home loss)
- FBK Karlstad away record: 4W 2D 2L (2 away losses)
- H2H: 0-0 draw in only meeting
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFC Arlanda or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half leads, and the H2H was level at the break, suggesting a draw is the most likely half-time result.
- FC Arlanda leading at half time in 27% of matches
- FBK Karlstad leading at half time in 40% of matches
- H2H: 0-0 at half time in only meeting
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw is a plausible outcome given both teams' tendency to draw, but the probability is low because a full-time draw is not the most likely result.
- FC Arlanda home draws: 4 in 9 matches
- FBK Karlstad away draws: 2 in 8 matches
- H2H: 0-0 draw
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FBK Karlstad's away games tend to be high-scoring, but FC Arlanda's home games are low-scoring, creating uncertainty about the total.
- FC Arlanda home matches average 1.78 total goals (10 for, 6 against in 9 games)
- FBK Karlstad away matches average 3.13 total goals (16 for, 9 against in 8 games)
- Both teams average 1.5 goals scored per game overall
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, suggesting a good chance both find the net.
- FC Arlanda scored in 7 of 9 home matches
- FBK Karlstad scored in 7 of 8 away matches
- Both teams average 1.5 goals per game overall
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, with FBK Karlstad particularly strong early, making a first-half goal likely.
- FC Arlanda first half goals: 0.5 per game average
- FBK Karlstad first half goals: 0.7 per game average
- Combined first half goals average: 1.2 per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to see more goals for both teams, but the low-scoring H2H and FC Arlanda's defensive home record temper expectations.
- FC Arlanda second half goals: 1.0 per game average (total 1.5 - first half 0.5)
- FBK Karlstad second half goals: 0.8 per game average (total 1.5 - first half 0.7)
- Combined second half goals average: 1.8 per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance40%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, this is a neutral estimate based on typical league averages.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- League average corners per game typically around 9-10
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 33% vs our estimate 30% leaves no edge; the away side's strong scoring record is already reflected in the price.

Prediction history

FC Arlanda's Over 2.5 goals projections have rarely been fulfilled

FC Arlanda's Over 2.5 goals projections have been fulfilled in 1 of 5 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 57%, but only 20% of matches actually went over 2.5 goals. Notably, all three home matches failed to reach over 2.5 goals, while the only fulfilled prediction came away from home.

Recent evidence for FC Arlanda5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jun·Ettan - Norra