Assyriska 1Gefle IF2

HT 1–0Sun 23 Aug 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Aug 2026, 07:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Assyriska are in better form and have home advantage, but Gefle's unbeaten H2H run and new manager make the match closer than the odds suggest.

No clear value exists in the main markets; the most likely outcome is a home win or draw with both teams scoring, but the prices are fair, so bettors should avoid the match winner and double chance markets.

Context

Pelle Olsson became Gefle's manager on 25 May 2026.
- Forward Adem Sipić joined on loan on 21 July 2026.
- Centre-back Semin Zulum signed on 1 August 2026.
0-0 draw on 17 May 2026.
- 2-1 win for Gefle on 2 November 2025.
- 1-1 draw on 14 June 2025.
Home record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses.
- 20 goals scored and 19 conceded in 8 home matches.
- Recent home results include a 3-0 win and a 1-5 loss.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Assyriska

1.91fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 52.4%

0.0ppshort

Assyriska's strong recent form and Gefle's poor away record are offset by Gefle's unbeaten H2H run, leaving no value at current odds.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Assyriska or Draw

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 76.9%

−4.9ppshort

Assyriska's home strength and Gefle's away struggles make a home loss unlikely, but the odds already reflect that safety.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's strong recent form and Gefle's poor away record give the home side the edge, though Gefle's H2H resilience tempers confidence.
- Assyriska are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches (4W, 1D), scoring 2+ goals in 4 of those.
- Gefle have lost 6 of 9 away matches this season, conceding 21 goals.
- Assyriska have won 3 of 8 home matches, but scored 20 goals at home (2.5 per game).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAssyriskaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's strong form and home advantage make them unlikely to lose, while Gefle's H2H record suggests a draw is possible.
- Assyriska are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches (4W, 1D).
- Gefle have lost 6 of 9 away matches this season.
- Gefle have avoided defeat in the last 3 H2H meetings (2 draws, 1 win).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostAssyriska or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's first-half scoring edge and Gefle's tendency to trail at the break give the home side a slight advantage.
- Assyriska led at half-time in 33% of matches overall.
- Gefle trailed at half-time in 60% of matches overall.
- Assyriska's first-half goal average (0.8) is higher than Gefle's (0.3).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonAssyriskaEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's home advantage and Gefle's poor away form make a home win from start to finish possible, but not highly probable.
- Assyriska have led at half-time in 33% of matches and won 35% of matches overall.
- Gefle have trailed at half-time in 60% of matches and lost 53% of matches overall.
- Assyriska's home record: 3W, 2D, 3L; Gefle's away record: 2W, 1D, 6L.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostAssyriska / AssyriskaEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring tendencies, especially Assyriska at home, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Assyriska's home matches average 4.9 total goals (20 scored, 19 conceded in 8 games).
- Gefle's away matches average 3.4 total goals (10 scored, 21 conceded in 9 games).
- Assyriska have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, suggesting both are likely to find the net.
- Assyriska have scored in 7 of 8 home matches this season.
- Gefle have scored in 6 of 9 away matches this season.
- Assyriska have conceded in 7 of 8 home matches; Gefle have conceded in 8 of 9 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's first-half scoring and Gefle's first-half defensive weakness make a first-half goal likely.
- Assyriska average 0.8 first-half goals per match overall.
- Gefle average 0.3 first-half goals per match overall, but concede 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- In Assyriska's last 5 matches, 4 had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half often sees more goals as both teams push for results, especially given their defensive vulnerabilities.
- Assyriska's home matches average 2.4 second-half goals (based on total goals minus first-half goals).
- Gefle's away matches average 2.0 second-half goals.
- Both teams tend to concede more in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, this is a speculative pick based on typical league averages.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Both teams average 0 corners per match in the provided data, indicating missing information.
- League average corners per match is typically around 9-10.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific card data, this is a speculative pick based on typical league averages.
- Card data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Both teams average 0 yellow cards per match in the provided data, indicating missing information.
- League average cards per match is typically around 3-4.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 52% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Assyriska has fulfilled Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 recent matches

Assyriska has fulfilled Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 59%, with an expected 3 fulfilled predictions, indicating slight underperformance. Notably, both fulfilled predictions occurred at home, while all three away matches missed.

Recent evidence for Assyriska5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Ettan - Norra