Assyriska 2AFC Eskilstuna5

HT 0–2Thu 17 Sept 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–375%

Edges5–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 23:49 · Europe/Bucharest

AFC Eskilstuna are in strong form and likely to avoid defeat, making the double chance (Draw or AFC Eskilstuna) at 1.53 the top value bet with a 6.6-point edge.

Avoid over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, as the odds imply much higher probabilities than our model estimates.

Context

AFC Eskilstuna are third in Ettan Norra with 40 points from 21 matches, five points behind leaders Stockholm Internazionale.
They have won their last five league games, scoring 9 goals and conceding 2. This run includes away wins at IF Karlstad (2-1 on 5 September), Karlberg (3-0 on 23 August), and Umeå FC (3-1 on 9 August). Their away record this season is strong: 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in 10 matches, with 26 goals scored. That form makes them a difficult opponent for Assyriska, who have lost two of their last three home games.
- AFC Eskilstuna have won their last five league matches: Piteå (1-0, 13 Sep), IF Karlstad (2-1, 5 Sep), Sollentuna (2-1, 29 Aug), Karlberg (3-0, 23 Aug), Hammarby Talang (1-0, 14 Aug).
- Their away record this season is 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in 10 matches, with 26 goals scored and 16 conceded.
- They are third in the table with 40 points, five behind leaders Stockholm Internazionale.
Assyriska are eighth in Ettan Norra with 29 points from 21 matches, 11 points behind AFC Eskilstuna.
At home, they have 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses in 10 matches, scoring 23 goals and conceding 22. Their last home league match was a 1-2 loss to Gefle IF on 23 August, and they also lost 0-1 to Vasalund in the Svenska Cupen on 28 May. However, they did beat Stocksund 2-1 at home on 4 September. This mixed home form suggests they may struggle to contain AFC Eskilstuna's attack.
- Assyriska's home record: 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses in 10 matches, with 23 goals scored and 22 conceded.
- They lost their last home league match 1-2 to Gefle IF on 23 August.
- They beat Stocksund 2-1 at home on 4 September.
AFC Eskilstuna head coach Alexander Alan has been in charge since mid-May 2026.
Alan has said his team deliberately alternates between high pressing, lower defending, and compact phases, adjusting formation to the match state rather than holding one shape. Assyriska should expect AFC to change their pressing triggers and control periods during the game, which can disrupt the home side's build-up and force them to adapt in real time.
- Ettan reported on 11 September that Alexander Alan has been AFC Eskilstuna's head coach since mid-May.
- Alan said the team now decide more deliberately when to press, control possession or attack fully, and aim to manage matches over 90 minutes.
- Alan said AFC do not want to be locked into one formation and instead adjust without losing their identity.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 23:48 · Europe/BucharestEttan: Alan has accelerated AFC Eskilstunaettanfotboll.se · 11 Sep 2026
The teams have met five times since 2024, with AFC Eskilstuna winning four and one draw.
AFC Eskilstuna won the most recent league meeting 1-0 at home on 14 June 2026, and also won a friendly 3-2 on 19 July 2026. In the 2025 season, they won 2-1 away and 2-1 at home. Assyriska's only point in this span came in a 1-1 draw in October 2024. This head-to-head trend gives AFC Eskilstuna a clear edge.
- AFC Eskilstuna won 1-0 at home on 14 June 2026 in Ettan Norra.
- AFC Eskilstuna won 3-2 in a friendly on 19 July 2026.
- In 2025, AFC Eskilstuna won 2-1 away and 2-1 at home in league matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AFC Eskilstuna's superior form and away record, combined with Assyriska's inconsistent home results, make the visitors the most likely winner.
- AFC Eskilstuna have won their last 5 league matches, scoring 9 and conceding 2.
- AFC Eskilstuna are 3rd with 40 points, 11 points ahead of Assyriska (29).
- AFC Eskilstuna have won 6 of 10 away matches this season.
- Assyriska have lost 4 of 10 home matches this season.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAFC EskilstunaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AFC Eskilstuna's strong away form and Assyriska's mediocre home record make the double chance for the visitors a high-probability outcome.
- AFC Eskilstuna have lost only 2 of 10 away matches this season.
- Assyriska have won only 4 of 10 home matches.
- AFC Eskilstuna are on a 5-match winning streak in the league.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or AFC EskilstunaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be evenly contested, with a draw at the break a plausible outcome.
- Assyriska have drawn at half-time in 27% of matches.
- AFC Eskilstuna have drawn at half-time in 40% of matches.
- Both teams have similar first-half goal averages (1.1 vs 0.9).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AFC Eskilstuna's game management and late scoring ability give them an edge in the second half.
- AFC Eskilstuna have scored late winners in recent matches.
- AFC Eskilstuna's away record shows they often improve after the break.
- Assyriska have conceded in the second half in several home matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonAFC EskilstunaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an AFC Eskilstuna win is a plausible scenario given their second-half strength.
- AFC Eskilstuna have drawn at half-time in 40% of matches.
- AFC Eskilstuna have won 60% of away matches.
- Assyriska have drawn at half-time in 27% of matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/AFC EskilstunaEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AFC Eskilstuna could dominate both halves, but the probability is low given Assyriska's home resilience.
- AFC Eskilstuna have led at half-time in 40% of matches.
- AFC Eskilstuna have won 60% of away matches.
- Assyriska have trailed at half-time in 27% of matches.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonAFC EskilstunaEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AFC Eskilstuna are unlikely to be behind at half-time, making the double chance a solid option.
- AFC Eskilstuna have led at half-time in 40% of matches.
- Assyriska have led at half-time in 47% of matches.
- AFC Eskilstuna have drawn at half-time in 40% of matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or AFC EskilstunaEstimated chance65%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring home/away splits, suggesting a good chance of at least three goals.
- Assyriska's home matches average 4.5 total goals (23 scored, 22 conceded in 10 games).
- AFC Eskilstuna's away matches average 4.2 total goals (26 scored, 16 conceded in 10 games).
- Assyriska have scored in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- Assyriska have scored in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
- AFC Eskilstuna have scored in 9 of their last 10 away matches.
- Assyriska have conceded in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
- AFC Eskilstuna have conceded in 7 of their last 10 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, but the probability of two or more first-half goals is moderate.
- Assyriska average 1.1 first-half goals per match overall.
- AFC Eskilstuna average 0.9 first-half goals per match overall.
- Assyriska have led at half-time in 47% of matches, AFC in 40%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
High-scoring patterns and AFC's late-game threat support second-half goals.
- Assyriska's home matches average 4.5 total goals, with many coming after the break.
- AFC Eskilstuna's away matches average 4.2 total goals.
- AFC Eskilstuna have scored late goals in recent matches, including a 72nd-minute winner.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have first-half scoring ability, but the probability of both scoring before the break is moderate.
- Assyriska average 1.1 first-half goals per match.
- AFC Eskilstuna average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Both teams have scored in the first half in several recent matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance30%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 74% leaves no cushion vs our 65% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Assyriska has struggled to clear Over 2.5 goals

Assyriska has fulfilled 2 of 5 Over 2.5 predictions, with an average estimated probability of 59%. The expected fulfilment was 3, so they have underperformed relative to the probabilities. Notably, both fulfilled predictions occurred at home, while all three away matches missed.

Recent evidence for Assyriska5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Ettan - Norra