Ettan - NorraFull time

Predictions graded

IF Karlstad0Assyriska 2

HT 0–0Sat 15 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–60%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Aug 2026, 23:38 · Europe/Bucharest

IF Karlstad are strong favourites at home, but the odds offer no value on the outright win or double chance.

The best edge is a small positive on Karlstad in the first-half result or HT/FT double, while the over 2.5 goals and BTTS markets are significantly overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Home record: 6W-1D-1L, 14 goals for, 5 against
- 5 clean sheets in last 8 home matches
- Recent home wins include 5-0 vs Vasalund and 2-0 vs Gefle
Away record: 2W-3D-3L, 7 goals for, 10 against
- Scoreless in 3 of last 6 away matches
- Lost 4-0 at Hammarby Talang and 2-0 at Arlanda
Last three: 2-0 Assyriska (Sep 2025), 1-1 draw (Apr 2025), 3-0 IF Karlstad (Oct 2024)
- IF Karlstad won 4-0 at home in Aug 2021
- Assyriska have taken points in 2 of last 3 meetings
Supplied kickoff: 14:00 UTC
- Fixture guide lists 16:00 local time
- Bettors should confirm final kickoff before placing time-sensitive wagers

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

IF Karlstad

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

IF Karlstad's superior league position and strong home form give them a clear edge over Assyriska's weaker away record.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

IF Karlstad or Draw

1.13fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

IF Karlstad's low loss rate and Assyriska's poor away win rate make the home side or draw highly likely.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.43fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average over 1.5 goals per match and Assyriska concede 1.8/game, but the odds imply a 70% chance, far above our 55% estimate.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Assyriska have scored in 5 of last 6, but IF Karlstad's home defensive record is strong, making the 63.7% implied probability too high.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
IF Karlstad's superior league position and strong home form give them a clear edge over Assyriska's weaker away record.
- IF Karlstad rank 2 with 36 points, 11W-3D-2L, +17 goal diff
- Assyriska rank 9 with 20 points, 5W-5D-6L, -2 goal diff
- IF Karlstad home record: 6W-1D-1L, 14 goals for, 5 against
- Assyriska away record: 2W-3D-3L, 7 goals for, 10 against
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIF KarlstadEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IF Karlstad's low loss rate and Assyriska's poor away win rate make the home side or draw highly likely.
- IF Karlstad have lost only 2 of 16 league matches this season
- Assyriska have won only 2 of 8 away matches
- IF Karlstad home record: 6W-1D-1L
BetBugs · Double ChancelostIF Karlstad or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IF Karlstad's tendency to lead at half-time and Assyriska's first-half defensive weakness support a home lead at the break.
- IF Karlstad led at half-time in 53% of matches
- Assyriska trailed at half-time in 33% of matches
- IF Karlstad average 0.9 first-half goals vs Assyriska's 0.7 conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostIF KarlstadEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
IF Karlstad's ability to take early leads and maintain them makes a home win at both half-time and full-time plausible.
- IF Karlstad led at half-time in 53% of matches
- IF Karlstad win probability is 60%
- Assyriska have lost 6 of 16 matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostIF Karlstad/IF KarlstadEstimated chance40%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown attacking intent and Assyriska's defensive vulnerability suggests a match with multiple goals.
- IF Karlstad average 2.0 goals scored per match overall
- Assyriska average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match
- Last H2H meeting ended 2-2
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Assyriska's recent scoring form and IF Karlstad's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.
- Assyriska have scored in 5 of their last 6 matches
- IF Karlstad have conceded in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Last H2H meeting ended 2-2
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, increasing the likelihood of at least one first-half goal.
- IF Karlstad average 0.9 first-half goals per match
- Assyriska average 0.8 first-half goals per match
- IF Karlstad led at half-time in 53% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams capable of scoring and Assyriska's defensive issues, the second half could see multiple goals.
- IF Karlstad average 2.0 total goals per match
- Assyriska average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match
- Last H2H meeting had 4 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without corner statistics, this prediction is speculative and based on typical match flow.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams
- Both teams average 0 corners per match in provided data
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
No card data available, so this is a neutral estimate based on typical match intensity.
- Card data unavailable for both teams
- Both teams average 0 yellow cards per match in provided data
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 44% leaves no cushion vs our 40% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

IF Karlstad has split Over 2.5 goals outcomes in recent matches

IF Karlstad has fulfilled 2 of 4 Over 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 59.8%, with an expected 2.4 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment is slightly below expectation. The current prediction of 55% is within the historical range of 55-62%.

Recent evidence for IF Karlstad4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jun·Ettan - Norra