FC Arlanda4Hammarby TFF2

HT 3–0Mon 21 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–746%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 10:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Hammarby TFF arrive a point off Ettan Norra's promotion place with a 5-1 win over Arlanda in August, yet they have scored twice in six matches.

Arlanda avoiding defeat at home looks the likeliest outcome. Four prices offer something: Arlanda to win or draw at 2.10, both teams to score – No at 2.15, under 2.5 goals at 2.20 and Arlanda to win at 4.00.

Context

Upplands Fotbollförbund's active suspension list runs Mark Gorgos's ban from 18 to 28 September 2026, a window that includes Monday's match. Arlanda therefore go into a home game they need to win without a squad-listed midfielder, which thins the options in the middle of the pitch. Because the same federation list carries FC Arlanda names that do not match this fixture's squad, the availability finding is kept to Gorgos alone.
- Upplands Fotbollförbund's current suspension list names Mark Gorgos of FC Arlanda.
- The listing runs from 18 September through 28 September 2026, which covers this fixture.
- The same list also carries FC Arlanda names that do not correspond to the club's squad for this match.
- M. Gorgos started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 10:23 · Europe/BucharestUpplands Fotbollförbund suspension listuppland.svenskfotboll.se · 21 Sep 2026
Hammarby's 17 September update announced a longer absence, and Fotbollskanalen reported the hip injury from the 5 September game at FC Stockholm as season-ending. Hedlöf had played the full 0-0 draw with Karlberg on 31 August, so HTFF lose a player who was in the XI rather than an unused name. No squad for Monday has been published, so the evidence does not establish which role he would have filled at Midgårdsvallen.
- Hammarby Fotboll announced a longer injury absence for Björn Hedlöf on 17 September.
- Fotbollskanalen reported that the hip injury sustained in the 5 September match at FC Stockholm ends his season.
- He played the whole 0-0 draw with Karlberg on 31 August, his last appearance before the injury.
- B. Hedlof started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 10:23 · Europe/BucharestFotbollskanalen injury reportwww.fotbollskanalen.se · 17 Sep 2026
Hammarby's official announcement on 28 August confirmed a two-and-a-half-year deal for Granit Hana, and Värmlands Folkblad had reported his 13 league goals for FBK Karlstad as the best in Ettan Norra. He started HTFF's next league match against Karlberg three days later, so he is the reference point in the attack Arlanda's back line has to handle. The evidence covers the signing and his scoring record; it does not show how HTFF now build around him.
- Hammarby Fotboll announced on 28 August that Granit Hana had signed a two-and-a-half-year deal with HTFF.
- Värmlands Folkblad reported the move from FBK Karlstad after he led Ettan Norra's scoring with 13 goals and one assist in 18 league games.
- He went straight into HTFF's XI against Karlberg three days after the move.
- G. Hana started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 10:23 · Europe/Bucharest
Djurgården's academy account announced on 27 August that Ahmed Saeed had returned from FC Stockholm and joined FC Arlanda on loan under a cooperation agreement that leaves him able to play for both clubs. He started Arlanda's 12 September trip to Karlberg and was withdrawn in the 27th minute after an early sending-off forced a reshuffle, so he is a live option for Monday. The dual registration cuts both ways, because Djurgården can also use him, so his availability is not guaranteed.
- Djurgården's academy account announced on 27 August that Ahmed Saeed returned from FC Stockholm and joined FC Arlanda on loan under a cooperation agreement, keeping dual playability.
- A Swedish lower-league match report states he started the 12 September away defeat at Karlberg and was withdrawn in the 27th minute after an early sending-off forced a reshuffle.
- A. Saeed started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- S. Rehman started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when A. Saeed did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 10:23 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby TFF have the stronger league record and comfortably the better away numbers, plus the recent head-to-head win.
- HTFF away league record 8W-1D-2L with 26 goals for and 7 against in 11
- HTFF away tracked split: 2.0 goals for and 0.57 against per game
- HTFF won the 3 August meeting 5-1, with Adam Johansson scoring twice
- HTFF are 3rd on 42 points, Arlanda 5th on 39
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHammarby TFFEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score fewer goals before the break than after it, and Hammarby TFF have repeatedly been level at half-time.
- Arlanda average 0.79 first-half goals for and 0.36 against
- HTFF average 0.53 first-half goals for and 0.33 against
- HTFF went in level at half-time in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Both sides' first-half goal rates are below one per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both sides scoring in the second half, an even 45 minutes is the most likely single result.
- Arlanda second-half goals for 0.86, against 1.0 per game
- HTFF second-half goals for 1.27, against 0.40 per game
- Arlanda's home second half: 0.71 for and 0.43 against
- Both teams score most of their goals after the break
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arlanda's home defence is the tightest part of their record and Hammarby TFF have scored only twice in six matches. Hammarby TFF have the stronger league record and comfortably the better away numbers, plus the recent head-to-head win.
- Arlanda home: 4W-1D-2L in 7, 0.71 goals against per game, 4 clean sheets
- Arlanda overall 8W-1D-5L from 14, scoring 1.64 and conceding 1.36 per game
- HTFF away league record 8W-1D-2L with 26 goals for and 7 against in 11
- HTFF away tracked split: 2.0 goals for and 0.57 against per game
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFC Arlanda or Hammarby TFFEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arlanda's home first-half scoring gives them the best single chance of leading at the break. Both teams score fewer goals before the break than after it, and Hammarby TFF have repeatedly been level at half-time.
- Arlanda first-half goals for: 0.79 per game; against: 0.36 (14 matches)
- Arlanda home first half: 0.86 for and 0.29 against per game
- Arlanda average 0.79 first-half goals for and 0.36 against
- HTFF average 0.53 first-half goals for and 0.33 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFC Arlanda or DrawEstimated chance73%

Goals4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Hammarby TFF's away matches are low-scoring and their attack has been quiet recently.
- HTFF have conceded 0.57 goals per away game and kept 5 clean sheets in 7
- HTFF have scored 2 goals in their last 6 matches
- Arlanda have conceded 0.71 per home game
- Arlanda's most recent match finished 2-0
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Hammarby TFF's away games have repeatedly produced one clean sheet or the other rather than goals for both.
- HTFF away both-scored count: 0 of 7
- HTFF kept 5 clean sheets in 7 away matches with 0.57 conceded per game
- Arlanda kept 4 clean sheets in 7 home matches
- HTFF have failed to score in 3 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Arlanda's home scoring is modest and Hammarby TFF's away defence has been their strongest area.
- Arlanda scored 1, 5 and 1 goals in their three most recent home matches
- HTFF conceded 0.57 per away game and kept 5 clean sheets in 7
- Arlanda home goals for: 1.57 per game
- HTFF have conceded 7 goals in 11 league away matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostFC Arlanda under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby TFF's current scoring rate and Arlanda's home defensive numbers both point below two away goals.
- HTFF scored 2 goals in their last 6 matches, blanked in 4 of them
- Arlanda home goals against: 0.71 per game, 4 clean sheets in 7
- HTFF away goals for 2.0 per game across 7
- Arlanda have conceded in 3 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostHammarby TFF under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby TFF's away scoring record and Arlanda's recent run of conceding make a shutout the less likely outcome.
- HTFF scored in 4 of 7 away matches and averaged 2.0 goals per away game
- Arlanda have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 6 matches
- HTFF scored 5 in the 3 August meeting
- Arlanda conceded in 3 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHammarby TFF to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arlanda's habit of scoring in almost every match makes a Hammarby TFF shutout the less likely side.
- Arlanda scored in 12 of 14 matches and 6 of 7 at home
- Arlanda have scored 11 goals across 7 home matches
- HTFF kept clean sheets in 5 of 7 away matches
- Arlanda scored 2 in their most recent match at Gefle
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Arlanda to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-half scoring rates put a goal before the break more likely than not.
- Arlanda first-half goals for 0.79 and against 0.36 per game
- HTFF first-half goals for 0.53 and against 0.33 per game
- HTFF away first half: 0.71 for and 0.00 against per game
- HTFF scored one first-half goal in their last 6 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The evidence points to at most one team scoring before the break.
- HTFF have conceded no first-half goals in 7 away matches
- Arlanda concede 0.36 first-half goals per game (0.29 at home)
- HTFF score 0.53 first-half goals per game, 0.71 away
- Fewer than half of HTFF's matches have both teams scoring overall
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance83%