Premier DivisionFull time

Predictions graded

Dundalk0St Patrick's4

HT 0–2Mon 14 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions4–736%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 7–16On targetOn target 0–8CornersCorners 3–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 07:59 · Europe/Bucharest

St Patrick's are slight favourites with title motivation, but the market offers no value on the away win or Dundalk double chance.

Avoid first-half Over 0.5 goals at 1.29 (implied 77.5% vs 65% model). Watch for second-half openings if the short turnaround leads to fatigue.

Context

St Patrick's are second in the Premier Division with 50 points from 29 matches, six points behind Shamrock Rovers.
They have won 14 matches and have a strong goal difference of +20. A win here would keep them in contention for the title, while a draw or loss could widen the gap. Their away record is solid with five wins and five draws from 14 games, so they can compete on the road.
- St Patrick's are second with 50 points, six behind Shamrock Rovers.
- They have 14 wins and a +20 goal difference.
- Their away record is 5 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses.
St Patrick's Athletic enter this match three points behind the league leaders after Friday's 2-0 win over Shamrock Rovers.
The reduced gap gives St Patrick's a concrete incentive to pursue points rather than treat the fixture as a low-priority league match. Their recent form and superior league position support a strong push, though Dundalk's home advantage remains a counterweight.
- St Patrick's Athletic defeated Shamrock Rovers 2-0 on 11 September.
- The Journal reported that the result cut Shamrock Rovers' lead to three points.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 07:58 · Europe/BucharestThe Journal: St Patrick's Athletic reignite title challengewww.thejournal.ie · 12 Sep 2026
Dundalk are fourth with 40 points, but their home record is only 6 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses.
They have lost their last two home league games: 1-2 to Galway United on 21 August and 1-2 to Drogheda United on 10 July. This suggests they are vulnerable at home, especially against a strong opponent like St Patrick's.
- Dundalk home record: 6 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses.
- Lost 1-2 to Galway United at home on 2026-08-21.
- Lost 1-2 to Drogheda United at home on 2026-07-10.
Both teams completed league fixtures on Friday 11 September, leaving only a three-day recovery before this Monday match.
The compressed recovery period makes late fitness assessment, load management and possible rotation relevant to both teams' selection. Fatigue may also open the second half, but the exact effect depends on how each manager manages minutes.
- Dundalk drew 1-1 away to Waterford on 11 September.
- St Patrick's Athletic beat Shamrock Rovers 2-0 at Richmond Park on 11 September.
- The fixture is scheduled for Monday 14 September at Oriel Park.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 07:58 · Europe/BucharestSky Sports: Waterford FC vs Dundalkwww.skysports.com · 11 Sep 2026St Patrick's Athletic match report: 2-0 Shamrock Roverswww.stpatsfc.com · 11 Sep 2026Dundalk FC 2026 fixtureswww.dundalkfc.com · 12 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

St Patrick's

2.22fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 45%

0.0ppshort

St Patrick's superior league position and title motivation give them a slight edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, offering no value.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Lean

Dundalk or Draw

1.61fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 62%

0.0ppshort

Dundalk's home resilience and St Patrick's inconsistent away form make the double chance a safer play, but the odds are slightly short of our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

H2H last 5 produced 3,2,4,3,5 goals and Dundalk's matches average 3.7 total goals, but odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Dundalk average 1.1 first-half goals and H2H shows first-half goals in 4 of 5, but odds are heavily juiced.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's superior league position and recent form, combined with their title motivation, give them a slight edge despite Dundalk's home advantage.
- St Patrick's are 2nd with 50 points, Dundalk 4th with 40 points.
- St Patrick's away record: 5W 5D 4L, Dundalk home record: 6W 3D 5L.
- St Patrick's have won 2 of their last 3 league matches, Dundalk have 1 win in last 5 league matches.
- H2H last 5: St Patrick's 2 wins, Dundalk 2 wins, 1 draw.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSt Patrick'sEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's home resilience and St Patrick's inconsistent away form make the double chance a safer play.
- Dundalk home record: 6W 3D 5L, unbeaten in 9 of 14 home matches.
- St Patrick's away record: 5W 5D 4L, dropped points in 9 of 14 away matches.
- H2H at Dundalk: Dundalk won 2-0 in April 2026, lost 1-2 in Sept 2024.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDundalk or DrawEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's stronger first-half scoring record gives them a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Dundalk led at half-time in 47% of matches, St Patrick's in 40%.
- Dundalk average 1.1 first-half goals vs St Patrick's 0.6.
- H2H last 5: Dundalk led at half-time in 2 matches, St Patrick's in 1.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDundalkEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If Dundalk can establish a lead, they have shown ability to hold on at home, but the probability remains low.
- Dundalk home record: 6W 3D 5L, with 4 wins after leading at half-time.
- St Patrick's away record: 5W 5D 4L, with 3 losses after trailing at half-time.
- H2H at Dundalk: Dundalk won 2-0 in April 2026.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDundalk/DundalkEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities, with recent H2H meetings often producing multiple goals.
- Dundalk average 2.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match.
- St Patrick's average 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.
- Combined average goals per match: 3.7 for Dundalk, 2.2 for St Patrick's.
- H2H last 5: 3, 2, 4, 3, 5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and the H2H history shows frequent goals at both ends.
- Dundalk have scored in 13 of 15 recent matches, conceding in 12.
- St Patrick's have scored in 10 of 15 recent matches, conceding in 9.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start actively, and the H2H record shows early goals are common.
- Dundalk average 1.1 first-half goals, St Patrick's average 0.6 first-half goals.
- Dundalk led at half-time in 47% of matches, St Patrick's in 40%.
- H2H last 5: first-half goals in 4 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half often opens up as fatigue sets in, especially with the short turnaround.
- Dundalk average 1.0 second-half goals (2.1 total - 1.1 first-half).
- St Patrick's average 0.6 second-half goals (1.2 total - 0.6 first-half).
- Combined second-half average: 1.6 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, suggesting a total above 9.5 is plausible.
- Dundalk average 6.3 corners per match, St Patrick's average 6.3 corners per match.
- Combined average corners: 12.6 per match.
- Recent matches show high corner counts for both teams.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is above the line, making over 8.5 a reasonable bet.
- Dundalk average 4.6 shots on target per match, St Patrick's average 4.8.
- Combined average shots on target: 9.4 per match.
- Both teams have high shot volumes in recent matches.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card average exceeds the line, and the competitive nature of the match may increase discipline issues.
- Dundalk average 2.1 yellow cards per match, St Patrick's average 2.0.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.1 per match.
- Recent matches show frequent bookings for both teams.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 45% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

St Patrick's has been moderately reliable when projected to win

St Patrick's has fulfilled 3 of 7 win predictions. The average estimated probability was 54.6%, with an expected 3.8 fulfilled predictions, indicating slight underperformance. Notably, all three fulfilled predictions came at home, while both away predictions missed.

Recent evidence for St Patrick's7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·Premier Division