Dundalk1Galway United2

HT 0–1Fri 21 Aug 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 74%–26%ShotsShots 21–5On targetOn target 2–3CornersCorners 10–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Aug 2026, 23:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Dundalk's H2H edge and home record support a lean, but their poor recent form makes the 1.67 home win price poor value (our estimate 42% vs implied 60%).

The only positive edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.10 (our 55% vs implied 47.6%), offering a modest +7.4 point value. Avoid heavily juiced markets like Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score.

Context

Last five league results: LDDLL (loss to Shamrock Rovers, draws with Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl., losses to Drogheda United and Shelbourne).
- In that span, Dundalk conceded 9 goals and scored only 6.
- Their only recent win was an 8-0 FAI Cup rout of non-league Castlebar Celtic, which does not reflect league form.
Away record: 2W 5D 6L, with draws against Bohemians, Shelbourne, Derry City, and others.
- In their last away match, they drew 1-1 at Bohemians despite having only 28% possession.
- Galway have scored in 9 of 13 away matches, but conceded in 11.
Results this season: 2-2 away, 2-1 home, 1-0 away.
- Dundalk have taken 7 of 9 available points from Galway.
- The home win was by a single goal, and the away win was also narrow.
Injury lists for both teams are empty in the supplied data.
- Intel confirms Ciaran Kilduff (Dundalk) and John Caulfield (Galway) are still managers.
- No August squad news, referee assignments, or pitch conditions were available.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Dundalk

1.67fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 60%

0.0ppshort

Dundalk's superior home record and H2H edge support a home win, but the odds imply a much higher probability than our model suggests.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Dundalk or Draw

1.22fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 82%

−14.0ppshort

Dundalk's strong home form and H2H dominance make them unlikely to lose, but the odds offer no value relative to our estimate.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Dundalk

2.10fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 48%

0.0ppshort

Dundalk's strong first-half performance and Galway's vulnerability early in games support a Dundalk lead at the break, but the odds are roughly fair.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's superior home record and current-season H2H edge support a home win, though their poor recent form tempers confidence.
- Dundalk home record: 6W 3D 4L, 22 goals scored, 16 conceded in 13 home matches
- Galway away record: 2W 5D 6L, 14 goals scored, 20 conceded in 13 away matches
- H2H this season: Dundalk unbeaten in 3 meetings (2W 1D), including 2-1 home win
- Dundalk recent form: LDDLL (last 5), but 4th in table with 37 points
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDundalkEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's strong home form and H2H dominance make them unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance of home win or draw.
- Dundalk home record: 6W 3D 4L, 69% unbeaten at home
- Galway away record: 2W 5D 6L, 54% away matches without a win
- H2H: Dundalk unbeaten in last 3 meetings vs Galway
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDundalk or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's strong first-half performance and Galway's vulnerability early in games support a Dundalk lead at the break.
- Dundalk leading at half time in 60% of matches overall
- Galway trailing at half time in 33% of matches overall
- Dundalk first half goals average: 1.2 vs Galway first half goals conceded: 0.8
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDundalkEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Dundalk often lead at half time, their conversion to full-time home wins is moderate, making HT/FT Dundalk/Dundalk a lower-probability outcome.
- Dundalk home win rate: 46% (6/13)
- Dundalk leading at half time in 60% of matches, but only 46% home win rate
- Galway away loss rate: 46% (6/13)
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDundalk/DundalkEstimated chance28%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show a tendency for higher-scoring games, and Dundalk's attacking output at home supports over 2.5 goals.
- Dundalk home matches average 2.92 total goals (22 scored, 16 conceded in 13 games)
- Galway away matches average 2.62 total goals (14 scored, 20 conceded in 13 games)
- Dundalk overall average goals per match: 2.0 scored, 1.5 conceded
- Galway overall average goals per match: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high rates of scoring and conceding in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- Dundalk home: scored in 10 of 13 home matches (77%), conceded in 9 of 13 (69%)
- Galway away: scored in 9 of 13 away matches (69%), conceded in 11 of 13 (85%)
- H2H: both teams scored in 2 of last 3 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's strong first-half scoring record and Galway's tendency to concede early suggest at least one first-half goal is likely.
- Dundalk first half goals average: 1.2 per match overall, 1.2 at home
- Galway first half goals conceded average: 0.8 per match overall, 0.8 away
- Dundalk leading at half time in 60% of matches overall
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring rates of both teams hover around 1.5 goals, making over 1.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Dundalk second half goals average: 0.8 per match (2.0 total - 1.2 first half)
- Galway second half goals conceded average: 0.7 per match (1.5 total - 0.8 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.5 goals per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages of both teams slightly exceed 9.5, but the margin is thin and confidence is low.
- Dundalk average corners per match: 6.1 overall, 6.1 at home
- Galway average corners per match: 4.6 overall, 4.6 away
- Combined average corners: 10.7 per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is just below 8.5, but Dundalk's home attacking numbers could push it over, albeit with low confidence.
- Dundalk average shots on target: 4.7 per match overall
- Galway average shots on target: 3.4 per match overall
- Combined average shots on target: 8.1 per match
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 60% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Dundalk has struggled to convert win projections

Dundalk has fulfilled 1 of 5 recent win predictions. The average estimated probability was 47.6%, but only 20% of those predictions matched. In missed predictions, Dundalk lost three times and drew once, with no wins.

Recent evidence for Dundalk5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Premier Division