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Predictions graded

St Patrick's1Derry City1

HT 1–0Sun 2 Aug 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 15–11On targetOn target 8–7CornersCorners 3–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jul 2026, 11:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Back under 2.5 goals at 1.75—the H2H trend (7/10 under 2.5), Derry's away scoring woes, and St Patrick's home defensive strength give a 70% probability, well above the 57% implied.

Also consider both teams to score 'no' and first-half under 1.5 goals for additional value in what shapes up as a tight, low-scoring match.

Context

Derry host HNK Rijeka on 30 July at 18:30, then visit St Patrick's on 2 August at 17:00 – a 70.5-hour gap.
- Derry's official preview calls the European tie 'season-defining', increasing the chance of a strong Thursday lineup and a weakened Sunday side.
- Derry have only one away league win all season, and fatigue will make improving that record harder.
Grivosti made 112 appearances for St Patrick's before his 28 July sale.
- McHale returns after 18 appearances on loan at Sligo Rovers, but he has not played with this St Patrick's defence recently.
- St Patrick's have kept eight home clean sheets this season, but the changed partnership could disrupt that solidity.
After 25 of 36 matches, St Patrick's have 43 points, seven behind Shamrock Rovers and level with Bohemians on points.
- Derry have 29 points, seven below fourth but only eight above the relegation-playoff spot, though their focus may be split with Europe.
- St Patrick's have the best home defensive record in the league (0.54 goals conceded per game) and will push for a win.
2026 meetings: 0-0 in March and 0-0 in May.
- 2025 meetings: 2-2 in August, 1-0 to Derry in June, and 1-0 to Derry in May.
- Across the last 10 H2Hs, Derry lead 5 wins to 2, with 3 draws.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's have a massive home advantage (9-2-2) and are in a title race must-win situation, while Derry have only 1 away win all season and face a 70.5-hour turnaround after a high-stakes European tie, making a home win the most likely outcome.
- St Patrick's home record: 9W-2D-2L, 28 goals scored, 7 conceded in 13 matches (2.15 GF, 0.54 GA per home game)
- Derry City away record: 1W-6D-5L, 11 goals scored, 15 conceded in 12 matches (0.92 GF, 1.25 GA per away game)
- St Patrick's last 5 home league matches: 4W-1D-0L, 11 goals scored, 2 conceded
- Derry City last 5 away league matches: 0W-3D-2L, 3 goals scored, 6 conceded
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSt Patrick'sEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining St Patrick's strong home form (only 2 losses) with Derry's poor away record (1 win) and the H2H trend of draws, St Patrick's or Draw covers the most probable outcomes, especially given Derry's fatigue from European action.
- St Patrick's home record: only 2 losses in 13 home matches (15% loss rate)
- Derry City away record: only 1 win in 12 away matches (8% win rate)
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3 draws, 2 Derry wins, 0 St Patrick's wins
- St Patrick's last 10 home matches across all competitions: 7W-2D-1L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSt Patrick's or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of half-time draws in their respective home/away splits, and the H2H shows a tendency for level scores at the break, supported by low first-half scoring rates.
- St Patrick's home league matches: 7 draws at half-time in 13 (54%)
- Derry City away league matches: 7 draws at half-time in 12 (58%)
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3 draws at half-time (60%)
- St Patrick's first-half goals at home: 0.7; Derry first-half goals away: 0.4
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's often improve after half-time at home, and Derry's fatigue from European action could lead to a second-half fade, but the low-scoring H2H pattern makes this a speculative outcome.
- St Patrick's home league matches: 4 of 13 had a half-time draw and full-time win (31%)
- Derry City away league matches: 3 of 12 had a half-time draw and full-time loss (25%)
- H2H last 5 meetings: 1 match had a half-time draw and full-time St Patrick's win (20%)
- St Patrick's second-half goal difference at home: +1.2 per game
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / St Patrick'sEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern is overwhelmingly low-scoring (7/10 under 2.5), both teams' home/away splits show a majority of matches under 2.5, and Derry's recent away games have all been under 2.5, making a low-scoring affair highly probable.
- H2H last 10 meetings: 7 finished under 2.5 goals, including both 2026 fixtures (0-0, 0-0)
- St Patrick's home league matches: 8 of 13 under 2.5 goals (62%)
- Derry City away league matches: 8 of 12 under 2.5 goals (67%)
- Derry City last 5 away league matches: all 5 under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H shows a strong trend of at least one team failing to score (8/10), St Patrick's have a solid home defense (7 goals conceded in 13), and Derry's away attack is weak, suggesting a high likelihood of at least one clean sheet.
- H2H last 10 meetings: both teams scored in only 2 matches (20%)
- St Patrick's home league matches: clean sheets in 8 of 13 (62%)
- Derry City away league matches: failed to score in 5 of 12 (42%)
- Derry City last 5 away league matches: scored only 3 goals total, blanked twice
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's have a strong home defensive record (0.54 GA per game) and Derry's away attack is poor, plus Derry will be fatigued from a European tie 70.5 hours earlier, increasing the chance of a home clean sheet.
- St Patrick's home league matches: 8 clean sheets in 13 (62%)
- Derry City away league matches: failed to score in 5 of 12 (42%)
- H2H last 5 meetings: St Patrick's kept 2 clean sheets, Derry kept 3
- Derry City last 5 away league matches: scored only 3 goals, blanked twice
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDerry City not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, especially in their respective home/away splits, and the H2H shows a consistent pattern of few first-half goals, making under 1.5 first-half goals very likely.
- St Patrick's home league matches: 10 of 13 had under 1.5 first-half goals (77%)
- Derry City away league matches: 10 of 12 had under 1.5 first-half goals (83%)
- H2H last 5 meetings: all 5 had under 1.5 first-half goals (0-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1)
- St Patrick's first-half goals at home: 0.7 per game; Derry first-half goals away: 0.4 per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The overall low-scoring trend extends to second halves, with both teams' splits showing a majority of matches under 1.5 second-half goals, and Derry's recent away games reinforcing this pattern.
- St Patrick's home league matches: 9 of 13 had under 1.5 second-half goals (69%)
- Derry City away league matches: 8 of 12 had under 1.5 second-half goals (67%)
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 of 5 had under 1.5 second-half goals
- Derry City last 5 away league matches: all 5 had under 1.5 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 10-11 total corners in their respective home/away splits, and recent St Patrick's home matches have seen slightly higher corner counts, suggesting a marginal lean towards over 9.5 corners.
- St Patrick's home league matches: average 6.3 corners for, 4.5 against, total 10.8 per game
- Derry City away league matches: average 5.7 corners for, 5.2 against, total 10.9 per game
- H2H last 5 meetings: corner data available for 3 matches, totals: 10, 12, 7 (average 9.7)
- St Patrick's last 5 home league matches: average total corners 11.2
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derry's away matches tend to have slightly higher card counts, and the H2H meetings have averaged around 5 cards, making over 4.5 cards a plausible outcome in a potentially tense match.
- St Patrick's home league matches: average 1.7 yellow cards, opponents 2.3, total 4.0 per game
- Derry City away league matches: average 2.8 yellow cards, opponents 2.0, total 4.8 per game
- H2H last 5 meetings: card data available for 3 matches, totals: 5, 4, 6 (average 5.0)
- Derry City last 5 away league matches: total cards average 5.2
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Derry's away form is poor (1 win in 12) and they face a 70.5-hour turnaround after a high-stakes European tie, making an away win unlikely.

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

D0-0Derry CityvSt Patrick's Athl.May 22, 2026PRE

D0-0St Patrick's Athl.vDerry CityMar 16, 2026PRE

D2-2Derry CityvSt Patrick's Athl.Aug 29, 2025PRE

W0-1St Patrick's Athl.vDerry CityJun 23, 2025PRE

L1-0Derry CityvSt Patrick's Athl.May 5, 2025PRE

St Patrick's: 3 clean sheetsDerry City: 3 clean sheets1.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	St Patrick's UEFA ECL Qualification	25	12	7	6	40-21	43	DDWLW
6	Derry City	25	6	11	8	32-31	29	LWDLW

14pt gap between teams

Recent Form

St Patrick's

D1-1DundalkJul 24PRE

W2-1WexfordJul 17FAI

L2-4DoncasterJul 14FRI

D1-1WaterfordJul 10PRE

W3-0Galway UnitedJul 3PRE

L0-2BohemiansJun 26PRE

W2-0Sligo RoversJun 19PRE

W2-0Drogheda UnitedJun 12PRE

L0-1Shamrock RoversMay 29PRE

D0-0Derry CityMay 22PRE

L0-1ShelbourneMay 15PRE

W4-1WaterfordMay 8PRE

D1-1Sligo RoversMay 4PRE

D2-2Galway UnitedMay 1PRE

W3-1BohemiansApr 24PRE

Derry City

L0-1HNK RijekaJul 23UEF

W3-0Tolka RoversJul 19FAI

L1-2CSKA SofiaJul 16UEF

L2-3CSKA SofiaJul 9UEF

L2-4WaterfordJul 3PRE

W2-0Drogheda UnitedJun 26PRE

D1-1Shamrock RoversJun 22PRE

L1-2Galway UnitedJun 19PRE

W4-1BohemiansJun 12PRE

L1-2DundalkMay 29PRE

D0-0ShelbourneMay 25PRE

D0-0St Patrick's Athl.May 22PRE

D2-2WaterfordMay 15PRE

L0-1Drogheda UnitedMay 8PRE

D1-1Galway UnitedMay 4PRE

Squad & Injuries

St Patrick's

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Derry City

32 available

Attackers6

Midfielders15

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

St Patrick's1Derry City1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

No

St Patrick's

St Patrick's or Draw

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Derry City

Derry City at half-time / Derry City at full-time

Under 3.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

St Patrick's

Derry City

Squad & Injuries

St Patrick's

Derry City