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Predictions graded

Drogheda United1Dundalk1

HT 0–1Fri 22 May 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges4–0100%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 8–14On targetOn target 2–6CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 May 2026, 18:28 · Europe/Bucharest

The Louth derby is set for another tense encounter, with recent H2Hs and Dundalk's poor away form pointing to a draw as the most likely result.

Backing the draw at 3.75 offers a solid +8% edge, while the first-half draw at 2.25 also holds marginal value. Avoid short-priced BTTS and first-half goals markets, as the derby atmosphere could suppress scoring.

Context

Drogheda accepted a €15,000 fine and a four-match away-supporter ban after the February derby.
- Drogheda fans are banned from attending Oriel Park for the rest of 2026.
- The club also covered pitch-repair costs following pyrotechnic damage.
- Manager Kevin Doherty was involved in public back-and-forth after the incident.
Dundalk away record: 1W-5D-2L, with 12 goals scored and 17 conceded.
- They have kept only one clean sheet on the road.
- Dundalk have led at half-time in just two of eight away games.
- Their only away win came against bottom-half Waterford.
Last five competitive H2H: 3 draws, 1 Drogheda win, 1 Dundalk win.
- Two of those draws were 0-0, including the most recent at Drogheda.
- The February 2026 meeting finished 1-1 with both goals in the second half.
- Drogheda have avoided defeat in three of the last four competitive derbies.
Drogheda home record: 3W-2D-3L, goals 8:8.
- They have kept three home clean sheets but also failed to score in three.
- Only one home win was by more than a one-goal margin.
- They have drawn two of their last four at home.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Drogheda United or Draw

1.56fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 64%

0.0ppshort

Drogheda are tough to beat at home and Dundalk struggle on the road, with the recent derby trend favoring the hosts avoiding defeat.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both sides have high BTTS rates in recent form and the derby context with emotional intensity often leads to open play, supporting goals at both ends.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams consistently see first-half action, with Dundalk especially prone to early goals on the road, making over 0.5 first-half goals a strong likelihood.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H pattern is tight with three draws in last five, and Dundalk's poor away win rate (1 in 8) combined with Drogheda's balanced home record makes a stalemate the most likely single outcome.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws, 1 Drogheda win, 1 Dundalk win; 3 of last 4 competitive meetings ended level.
- Drogheda home record: 3W-2D-3L, goals 8:8; Dundalk away record: 1W-5D-2L, goals 12:17.
- Dundalk away form: only 1 win in 8 away games this season, with 5 draws.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Drogheda are tough to beat at home and Dundalk struggle on the road, with the recent derby trend favoring the hosts avoiding defeat.
- Drogheda home: 5 unbeaten in 8 (3W-2D); Dundalk away: only 1 win in 8.
- Last 4 competitive H2H: Drogheda avoided defeat in 3 (2 draws, 1 win).
- Dundalk away goals conceded: 17 in 8 (2.13 per game).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDrogheda United or DrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have near-identical first-half records and the recent H2H shows a pattern of level scores at the break, making a halftime draw the most probable outcome.
- Drogheda last 15: led at HT in 5, trailed in 5, drew 5; Dundalk last 15: led in 6, trailed in 6, drew 3.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at HT, 1 Drogheda lead, 1 Dundalk lead.
- Dundalk away: led at HT in only 2 of 8 away games.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dundalk have a slight edge in second-half performances overall, and Drogheda's home second-half record is poor, suggesting Dundalk could edge the second period.
- Dundalk last 15: won second half in 7, lost in 5; Drogheda last 15: won second half in 5, lost in 7.
- Dundalk away: won second half in 3 of 8, lost in 3.
- Drogheda home: won second half in only 2 of 8 home games.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableDundalkEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the high likelihood of a tight, cautious derby with a halftime stalemate, a full-time draw is a plausible sequence, though still a low-probability exact outcome.
- Drogheda home: 2 of 8 home games were draw at HT and FT; Dundalk away: 3 of 8 away games were draw at HT and FT.
- H2H last 5: 2 of 5 were draw at HT and FT (both 0-0).
- Combined probability of HT draw (~45%) and FT draw (~35%) suggests ~16% base rate, but derby tension raises it.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have high BTTS rates in recent form and the derby context with emotional intensity often leads to open play, supporting goals at both ends.
- Drogheda last 15: both teams scored in 10 of 15 (67%); Dundalk last 15: both teams scored in 9 of 15 (60%).
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5, including the last meeting (1-1).
- Dundalk away: both teams scored in 6 of 8 away games this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While recent competitive H2H has been tighter, both teams' overall season trends and Dundalk's leaky away defense push the probability slightly above 50% for over 2.5 goals.
- Drogheda last 15: 9 of 15 had over 2.5 goals (60%); Dundalk last 15: 10 of 15 had over 2.5 (67%).
- Dundalk away: 6 of 8 away games had over 2.5 goals.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 had over 2.5, but 2 of last 3 competitive meetings were under.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently see first-half action, with Dundalk especially prone to early goals on the road, making over 0.5 first-half goals a strong likelihood.
- Drogheda last 15: first-half goals in 11 of 15 (73%); Dundalk last 15: first-half goals in 12 of 15 (80%).
- Dundalk away: first-half goals in 7 of 8 away games.
- H2H last 5: first-half goals in 3 of 5, including the last competitive meeting (0-0 at HT but 1-1 FT).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede and score more after the break, and the derby's emotional toll could lead to a more open second half.
- Drogheda last 15: second-half goals in 13 of 15 (87%), with 9 having over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Dundalk last 15: second-half goals in 13 of 15 (87%), with 8 having over 1.5.
- Dundalk away: 6 of 8 away games had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's high corner count, especially away from home, combined with Drogheda conceding many corners, points to a total comfortably above 9.5.
- Dundalk last 15: average 6.4 corners for, 4.9 against = 11.3 total corners per game.
- Drogheda last 15: average 3.8 corners for, 6.5 against = 10.3 total corners per game.
- H2H last 5: total corners: 8, 8, 11, 9, 14 – average 10.0, with 3 of 5 over 9.5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 5 cards per game, and the heated derby atmosphere with recent sanctions raises the probability of cards exceeding 4.5.
- Drogheda last 15: average 2.2 yellow cards, opponents 2.5 = 4.7 total cards per game.
- Dundalk last 15: average 2.5 yellow cards, opponents 2.5 = 5.0 total cards per game.
- Derby context: previous meeting had 5 yellows, and off-pitch tensions increase likelihood of disciplinary action.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

D1-1DundalkvDrogheda UnitedFeb 20, 2026PRE

D0-0Drogheda UnitedvDundalkJan 30, 2026FRI

D0-0Drogheda UnitedvDundalkNov 1, 2024PRE

W2-1Drogheda UnitedvDundalkJul 19, 2024FAI

L4-2DundalkvDrogheda UnitedJul 12, 2024PRE

Drogheda United: 2 clean sheetsDundalk: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Drogheda United	16	5	4	7	20-26	19	LWLWW
4	Dundalk	17	6	7	4	28-26	25	WLDLL

6pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Drogheda United

L1-2BohemiansMay 15PRE

W1-0Derry CityMay 8PRE

L1-4Shamrock RoversMay 4PRE

W1-0Sligo RoversMay 1PRE

W4-3ShelbourneApr 24PRE

L1-3St Patrick's Athl.Apr 17PRE

L2-3Galway UnitedApr 6PRE

D0-0BohemiansApr 3PRE

D2-2Derry CityMar 20PRE

D0-0Shamrock RoversMar 16PRE

L1-4St Patrick's Athl.Mar 13PRE

L1-2Sligo RoversMar 7PRE

L1-2ShelbourneFeb 27PRE

D1-1DundalkFeb 20PRE

W2-0WaterfordFeb 13PRE

Dundalk

W1-0Shamrock RoversMay 15PRE

L1-3BohemiansMay 8PRE

D3-3WaterfordMay 4PRE

L1-2ShelbourneMay 1PRE

L0-2Sligo RoversApr 25PRE

W2-1Galway UnitedApr 17PRE

D2-2Derry CityApr 10PRE

W2-0St Patrick's Athl.Apr 6PRE

W3-2ShelbourneApr 3PRE

D1-1BohemiansMar 20PRE

W1-0Sligo RoversMar 16PRE

W5-0WaterfordMar 13PRE

D2-2Galway UnitedMar 6PRE

L0-4St Patrick's Athl.Feb 27PRE

D1-1Shamrock RoversFeb 23PRE

Squad & Injuries

Drogheda United

25 available

Attackers4

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Dundalk

28 available

Attackers5

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3