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Predictions graded

Bohemians2St Patrick's0

HT 1–0Fri 26 Jun 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–233%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Jun 2026, 02:20 · Europe/Bucharest

St Patrick's are unbeaten in the last three H2H meetings and face a Bohemians side with just three home wins all season, making Draw or St Patrick's (1.45) a high-confidence play.

The first half is likely to be tight—Under 1.5 goals (1.38) and a half-time draw (2.10) both offer value. The best edge is Over 3.5 cards at 3.30, with a 62% model probability against a 30% implied chance, driven by both teams' disciplinary records and the stakes of this top-three clash.

Context

On June 21, Reynolds criticized the squad's mentality after losses to Derry City and Dundalk where they led but lost.
- Bohemians then beat Shelbourne 3-0 away on June 22, a result that could either boost confidence or mask underlying issues.
- The quick turnaround from public criticism to derby win creates uncertainty about which Bohemians will show up.
St Patrick's won 3-1 at home in April 2026 and drew 0-0 at Dalymount in February 2026.
- Bohemians' only goal in the last three H2Hs came in the April loss.
- The pattern suggests St Patrick's know how to neutralize Bohemians' attack.
Home record: W3 D5 L3, with only 14 goals scored and 14 conceded in 11 games.
- They have lost 2 of their last 3 home matches, conceding 2 goals in each loss.
- St Patrick's away record is solid: W3 D4 L3, with only 3 losses in 10 trips.
St Patrick's can cut Shamrock Rovers' lead to 3 points with a win, keeping their title challenge alive.
- Bohemians would move above St Patrick's with a victory, but their title hopes are slimmer given the games played.
- The stakes are higher for St Patrick's, who have a realistic path to the top if they win their games in hand.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's hold a psychological edge from recent H2H dominance and are in a tight title race, while Bohemians' poor home form and recent defensive lapses make them vulnerable.
- St Patrick's have won the last 2 competitive H2H meetings, including a 3-1 win in April 2026.
- Bohemians have won only 3 of 11 home league matches this season (W3 D5 L3).
- St Patrick's away record is W3 D4 L3, with a +0 goal difference (11 scored, 11 conceded).
- Bohemians have lost 2 of their last 3 home matches, conceding 2 goals in each loss.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSt Patrick'sEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Bohemians' inability to win at home and St Patrick's solid away form, reinforced by H2H history, makes a St Patrick's win or draw highly likely.
- St Patrick's are unbeaten in the last 3 competitive H2H meetings (W2 D1).
- Bohemians have drawn 5 of 11 home league matches this season.
- St Patrick's have lost only 3 of 10 away matches this season.
- Bohemians have failed to win 8 of 11 home matches (D5 L3).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or St Patrick'sEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The balanced first-half performances of both teams and the high frequency of half-time draws in recent matches and H2H suggest a stalemate at the break.
- Bohemians have drawn at half-time in 6 of their last 15 matches.
- St Patrick's have drawn at half-time in 5 of their last 15 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 were draws at half-time.
- Bohemians' first-half goal difference is 0 (0.7 scored, 0.7 conceded), St Patrick's is +0.3 (0.8 scored, 0.5 conceded).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's tend to be stronger after the break, while Bohemians' defense often weakens, giving the visitors a slight edge to win the second half.
- St Patrick's have a superior second-half goal difference in recent matches (0.7 scored, 0.3 conceded vs Bohemians' 0.8 scored, 1.0 conceded).
- Bohemians have conceded 1.0 second-half goals on average in their last 15 matches.
- St Patrick's have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- In the April 2026 H2H, St Patrick's scored 2 second-half goals to win 3-1.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableSt Patrick'sEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A repeat of the April pattern is possible given Bohemians' tendency to fade and St Patrick's second-half strength, though the specific sequence remains a low-probability outcome.
- Bohemians have drawn at half-time in 40% of recent matches, and St Patrick's have won 5 of their last 15 matches overall.
- In the April 2026 H2H, the half-time score was 1-1 and St Patrick's won 3-1.
- St Patrick's have come from behind or drawn at half-time to win in 2 of their last 10 matches.
- Bohemians have lost 3 of their last 5 home matches after being level or behind at half-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/St Patrick'sEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H trends and the moderate scoring rates of both teams, especially in Bohemians' home games, point to a low-scoring affair.
- 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings have seen Under 2.5 goals.
- Bohemians' home matches average 2.55 total goals (14 scored, 14 conceded in 11 games).
- St Patrick's away matches average 2.2 total goals (11 scored, 11 conceded in 10 games).
- Both teams have scored in only 5 of Bohemians' 11 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bohemians' inconsistent home scoring and St Patrick's defensive solidity, combined with H2H patterns, suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- Both teams scored in only 5 of Bohemians' 11 home league matches this season.
- St Patrick's have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 15 matches overall.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored only once.
- Bohemians have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and H2H history shows a strong trend of quiet first halves, making Under 1.5 first-half goals highly probable.
- Bohemians average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- St Patrick's average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, only 1 match had more than 1 first-half goal.
- Bohemians have been leading at half-time in only 27% of recent matches, St Patrick's in 40%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners individually, and their combined averages comfortably exceed the 9.5 line, supported by H2H trends.
- Bohemians average 6.3 corners per match in their last 15 games, St Patrick's average 6.2.
- Combined, the teams average 12.5 corners per match in recent form.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings with corner data, 3 matches had 10 or more corners.
- Bohemians' home matches average 6.5 corners for them, while St Patrick's away matches average 5.8 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The disciplinary records of both teams and the competitive nature of this top-three clash suggest a card count exceeding 3.5.
- Bohemians average 2.0 yellow cards per match in their last 15, St Patrick's average 1.6.
- Combined, the teams average 3.6 cards per match in recent form.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings with card data, 3 matches had 4 or more cards.
- Bohemians have received 2+ cards in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance62%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

L3-1St Patrick's Athl.vBohemiansApr 24, 2026PRE

D0-0BohemiansvSt Patrick's Athl.Feb 8, 2026PRE

D0-0BohemiansvSt Patrick's Athl.Oct 20, 2025PRE

D0-0St Patrick's Athl.vBohemiansJul 4, 2025PRE

W2-1BohemiansvSt Patrick's Athl.Apr 25, 2025PRE

Bohemians: 3 clean sheetsSt Patrick's: 3 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Bohemians	22	9	7	6	33-27	34	LLWLW
2	St Patrick's Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	21	11	5	5	35-17	38	WWLDL

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Bohemians

L1-2DundalkJun 19PRE

L1-4Derry CityJun 12PRE

W3-1Sligo RoversMay 29PRE

L1-2Shamrock RoversMay 25PRE

W4-2Galway UnitedMay 22PRE

W2-1Drogheda UnitedMay 15PRE

W3-1DundalkMay 8PRE

D2-2ShelbourneMay 4PRE

D1-1Derry CityMay 1PRE

L1-3St Patrick's Athl.Apr 24PRE

L1-2Shamrock RoversApr 17PRE

L1-2Sligo RoversApr 10PRE

D1-1WaterfordApr 6PRE

D0-0Drogheda UnitedApr 3PRE

D1-1DundalkMar 20PRE

St Patrick's

W2-0Sligo RoversJun 19PRE

W2-0Drogheda UnitedJun 12PRE

L0-1Shamrock RoversMay 29PRE

D0-0Derry CityMay 22PRE

L0-1ShelbourneMay 15PRE

W4-1WaterfordMay 8PRE

D1-1Sligo RoversMay 4PRE

D2-2Galway UnitedMay 1PRE

W3-1BohemiansApr 24PRE

W3-1Drogheda UnitedApr 17PRE

L0-1Shamrock RoversApr 10PRE

L0-2DundalkApr 6PRE

W4-1Sligo RoversApr 3PRE

W2-0WaterfordMar 20PRE

D0-0Derry CityMar 16PRE

Squad & Injuries

Bohemians

24 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

St Patrick's

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders13

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Bohemians2St Patrick's0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or St Patrick's

Draw

Under 1.5

No

Over 3.5

Over 10.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 12.5

Under 3.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Bohemians

St Patrick's

Squad & Injuries

Bohemians

St Patrick's