BetBugs
Back to matches
Bohemians

Bohemians - Dundalk

Dundalk
🇮🇪 Premier DivisionFinishedFeatured
Friday, June 19, 2026 at 19:00

Finished Snapshot

FT1-2
FinishedSettled

Halftime

1-1

Predictions

4W · 3L · 0P

Edges

3W · 2L · 0P

Quick Take

Start here for the short read and the strongest priced leans.

Back the draw at 3.80 for clear value (35% estimated vs 26% implied) in a match where both teams' high draw rates align with the stakes. The over 3.5 cards at 2.50 is the top edge play, with a 20-point gap driven by consistent disciplinary records and a heated rivalry. Avoid Bohemians in first-half markets and the short-priced double chance, as the odds overstate their early control and overall safety.

Context 7/10 Direct table-pressure swing game with both teams chasing a top-two spot, plus Bohemians missing a defender and starting a run of three matches against direct rivals.
Double ChanceBohemians or Draw70%Fair price
1 St Half Goals Over/UnderOver 0.565%Fair price
Cards Over/UnderOver 3.560%+20.0pp

Context Signals

The match conditions that matter before looking at the prices.

Social Angles

Fresh chatter, news, and whether it changes the read.

2

Official club messaging confirms this was selected for live coverage and moved to an 8pm kickoff at Dalymount. Local Irish football reporting says Dundalk protected recovery time before the trip because of an existing injury list, framing this as an important fixture in their week.

Compared to our analysis

Our draw lean assumes Dundalk can bring their usual away resilience, so credible injury noise matters to that assumption. It does not automatically flip the match away from the draw, but it does make Dundalk's stronger early profile less comfortable if key absences are confirmed.

Watch confirmed team news before kickoff. Keep this as a sizing check rather than a reason to abandon the draw or cards angles on its own.

Betting Edges

Markets where the model and price are far enough apart.

Model probabilities

The model view before price and edge filtering.

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W
W1-3DundalkvBohemiansMay 8, 2026PRE
D1-1BohemiansvDundalkMar 20, 2026PRE
W0-2DundalkvBohemiansSep 27, 2024PRE
D1-1BohemiansvDundalkJul 26, 2024PRE
L2-0DundalkvBohemiansApr 26, 2024PRE
2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier Division 2026/2027
#TeamPWDLGF-GAPts
3
BohemiansBohemians
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
2197532-2534
4
DundalkDundalk
2088432-2832
2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Bohemians

Bohemians

L1-4Derry CityJun 12PRE
W3-1Sligo RoversMay 29PRE
L1-2Shamrock RoversMay 25PRE
W4-2Galway UnitedMay 22PRE
W2-1Drogheda UnitedMay 15PRE
W3-1DundalkMay 8PRE
D2-2ShelbourneMay 4PRE
D1-1Derry CityMay 1PRE
L1-3St Patrick's Athl.Apr 24PRE
L1-2Shamrock RoversApr 17PRE
L1-2Sligo RoversApr 10PRE
D1-1WaterfordApr 6PRE
D0-0Drogheda UnitedApr 3PRE
D1-1DundalkMar 20PRE
D0-0ShelbourneMar 16PRE
Dundalk

Dundalk

W1-0Galway UnitedJun 12PRE
W2-1Derry CityMay 29PRE
D1-1Drogheda UnitedMay 22PRE
W1-0Shamrock RoversMay 15PRE
L1-3BohemiansMay 8PRE
D3-3WaterfordMay 4PRE
L1-2ShelbourneMay 1PRE
L0-2Sligo RoversApr 25PRE
W2-1Galway UnitedApr 17PRE
D2-2Derry CityApr 10PRE
W2-0St Patrick's Athl.Apr 6PRE
W3-2ShelbourneApr 3PRE
D1-1BohemiansMar 20PRE
W1-0Sligo RoversMar 16PRE
W5-0WaterfordMar 13PRE

Squad & Injuries

Bohemians

24 available
Attackers7
Midfielders8
Defenders7
Goalkeeper2

Dundalk

28 available
Attackers5
Midfielders11
Defenders9
Goalkeeper3
Bohemians host Dundalk in a pivotal Premier Division clash with both sides eyeing a top-two spot. Bohemians sit third on 34 points, just two ahead of fourth-placed Dundalk, who have a game in hand. A win for either side would significantly boost their title ambitions, making this a genuine swing game. Bohemians have been resilient at Dalymount Park, losing only twice in ten home matches, but five of those have ended in draws. Dundalk, meanwhile, have drawn six of ten away games, highlighting their stubbornness on the road.