Draw
Market 26% · BetBugs 35%
Both teams have high draw rates in their respective home/away splits (Bohemians 50% home draws, Dundalk 60% away draws), and recent H2H shows tight contests, making a stalemate the most probable single outcome.
Premier DivisionFull timeFeatured
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Back the draw at 3.80 for clear value (35% estimated vs 26% implied) in a match where both teams' high draw rates align with the stakes.
The over 3.5 cards at 2.50 is the top edge play, with a 20-point gap driven by consistent disciplinary records and a heated rivalry. Avoid Bohemians in first-half markets and the short-priced double chance, as the odds overstate their early control and overall safety.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 26% · BetBugs 35%
Both teams have high draw rates in their respective home/away splits (Bohemians 50% home draws, Dundalk 60% away draws), and recent H2H shows tight contests, making a stalemate the most probable single outcome.
Market 40% · BetBugs 60%
Both teams average over 4 cards per match in recent games, and the high-stakes rivalry context increases likelihood of disciplinary actions.
Other edges · 4
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 70% · Market 78%
Bohemians are unbeaten in 8 of 10 home games this season, while Dundalk have won only 2 of 10 away, making Bohemians or Draw a high-probability outcome at a price that still offers value.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | BohemiansPromotion - Conference League (Qualification) | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 32-25 | 34 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 32-28 | 32 |

