Premier DivisionFull time

Predictions graded

St Patrick's0Waterford2

HT 0–0Fri 28 Aug 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges0–60%

PossPossession 71%–29%ShotsShots 11–16On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 6–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 23:45 · Europe/Bucharest

St Patrick's are strong favourites at home against a poor Waterford away side, but the odds are heavily juiced.

No market offers positive value; the best approach is to avoid betting or wait for live opportunities if the game stays level early.

Context

St Patrick's home record: 9W-3D-2L, with 29 goals scored and 8 conceded.
- St Patrick's last five home league games: 2W-3D, including draws against Derry City and Dundalk.
- Waterford away record: 2W-4D-8L, with 32 goals conceded.
- Waterford's last five away league games: 1W-2D-2L, including a 0-0 draw at Sligo Rovers.
Waterford away record: 2W-4D-8L, with 18 goals scored and 32 conceded.
- Waterford's last five away league games: 1W-2D-2L, including a 0-0 draw at Sligo Rovers and a 0-0 draw at Galway United.
- Waterford away matches average 3.57 total goals per game.
- Waterford have scored in 11 of 14 away matches (78.6%).
Last five H2H league results: St Patrick's 3W-2D-0L.
- St Patrick's scored 9 goals in those five matches, conceding 3.
- The most recent meeting on 10 July 2026 ended 1-1, with Waterford scoring a late penalty.
- St Patrick's won the two previous meetings 2-0 and 4-1.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

St Patrick's

1.33fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Home side are W9-D3-L2 at home this season while Waterford are W2-D4-L8 away, but the odds already price in that dominance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

St Patrick's or Draw

1.10fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

St Patrick's are unbeaten in 12 of 14 home matches, but the double chance price leaves no margin for error.

HT/FTlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

St Patrick's at half-time / St Patrick's at full-time

1.88fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 53.2%

0.0ppshort

St Patrick's often win without leading at the break, making the HT/FT double a poor value at this price.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average around 0.7-0.8 first-half goals and H2H has first-half goals in 2 of 3 meetings, but the odds are heavily juiced leaving no value.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.45fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Waterford's away games average 3.57 total goals and St Patrick's home games average 2.64, but the odds imply a much higher probability than our estimate.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Waterford scored in 11 of 14 away matches, but St Patrick's home clean sheet rate is high, making the odds roughly fair.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's strong home form and Waterford's poor away record, combined with H2H dominance, make a home win likely.
- St Patrick's home record: 9W-3D-2L, 29 goals scored, 8 conceded in 14 home matches
- Waterford away record: 2W-4D-8L, 18 goals scored, 32 conceded in 14 away matches
- H2H last 3 meetings: St Patrick's unbeaten (2W-1D), scoring 7 goals
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSt Patrick'sEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's are very hard to beat at home and Waterford rarely win away, so the double chance is a safe bet.
- St Patrick's home record: 9W-3D-2L (85.7% unbeaten)
- Waterford away record: 2W-4D-8L (42.9% unbeaten)
- H2H: St Patrick's unbeaten in last 5 meetings (3W-2D)
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSt Patrick's or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's often start strong at home, and Waterford's away form suggests they may trail early.
- St Patrick's lead at halftime in 40% of matches overall
- Waterford trail at halftime in 27% of matches overall
- H2H: St Patrick's led at halftime in 2 of last 3 meetings
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSt Patrick'sEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's have the quality to lead at halftime and extend their advantage, especially against a weak away side.
- St Patrick's home record: 9W-3D-2L, with 6 wins by 2+ goals
- Waterford away record: 2W-4D-8L, with 6 losses by 2+ goals
- H2H: St Patrick's won both halves in 2 of last 3 meetings
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostSt Patrick's/St Patrick'sEstimated chance40%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Waterford's away games are high-scoring and St Patrick's attack is strong at home, so over 2.5 goals is likely.
- St Patrick's home matches average 2.64 total goals (29 scored + 8 conceded in 14 games)
- Waterford away matches average 3.57 total goals (18 scored + 32 conceded in 14 games)
- H2H last 3 meetings: 2-0, 4-1, 1-1 (average 3.0 goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Waterford tend to score on the road, and St Patrick's occasionally concede at home, so both teams scoring is plausible.
- Waterford have scored in 11 of 14 away matches (78.6%)
- St Patrick's have conceded in 6 of 14 home matches (42.9%)
- H2H: Waterford scored in 2 of last 3 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have decent first-half scoring records, making it likely there will be at least one goal before halftime.
- St Patrick's average 0.7 first-half goals per match overall
- Waterford average 0.8 first-half goals per match overall
- H2H last 3 meetings: first-half goals in 2 of 3 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open, especially with Waterford's away defensive struggles, so over 1.5 second-half goals is likely.
- St Patrick's home matches average 1.86 second-half goals (total 2.64 - first half 0.78)
- Waterford away matches average 2.57 second-half goals (total 3.57 - first half 1.0)
- H2H last 3 meetings: second-half goals in all 3 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the attacking nature of the game could push the total over 9.5.
- St Patrick's average 6.2 corners per match overall
- Waterford average 5.0 corners per match overall
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams: 11.2
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are capable of testing the goalkeeper, and the expected open game could lead to over 8.5 shots on target.
- St Patrick's average 5.1 shots on target per match overall
- Waterford average 4.8 shots on target per match overall
- Combined average shots on target: 9.9
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 75% leaves no cushion vs our 60% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

St Patrick's has been moderately reliable when projected to win

St Patrick's fulfilled 3 of 7 recent win projections. The average estimated probability was 54.6%, with an expected 3.8 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment was slightly below expectation. All three fulfilled predictions came at home, where they won 3 of 5, while both away projections missed.

Recent evidence for St Patrick's7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·Premier Division