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Predictions graded

Waterford1St Patrick's1

HT 1–0Fri 10 Jul 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges3–443%

PossPossession 32%–68%ShotsShots 8–9On targetOn target 4–1CornersCorners 2–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Jul 2026, 18:20 · Europe/Bucharest

St Patrick's are clear favorites to avoid defeat given their dominant H2H record and title-chasing form, but the best betting value is on Both Teams to Score (1.80, +9% edge) and Over 2.5 Goals (1.73, +2% edge), with Waterford's leaky defense and consistent home scoring driving the goal markets.

Avoid short-priced favorites and first-half overs due to negative edges and potential for a slow start under Waterford's new manager.

Context

Club official report after 3-0 win over Galway said it 're-ignited their title challenge'.
- Saints are on 41 points from 23 games, just two behind second-placed Bohemians.
- A win would lift them to 44 points and into second place.
April club preview listed Jon Daly as manager; current site shows Graham Coughlan as head coach.
- This is the first meeting under Coughlan, adding tactical uncertainty.
- New manager bounce could tighten a defense that has conceded in 10 of 11 home games.
Last three away league H2H: 2-0, 2-0, 2-1 wins for St Patrick's.
- Waterford have not beaten St Patrick's in the last five league meetings (0W 2D 3L).
- St Patrick's scored 4 goals in the most recent meeting (May 2026).
Waterford have conceded in 10 of 11 home league games this season.
- They average 1.8 goals conceded per game overall.
- Four of their last five home games have seen over 2.5 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Strong H2H psychology and high motivation/stakes for St Patrick's (title chase) against a Waterford side under new management and struggling at home, making an away win the most likely outcome.
- St Patrick's have won their last 3 league trips to Waterford (2-0, 2-0, 2-1).
- Waterford have not beaten St Patrick's in the last 5 league meetings (0W 2D 3L).
- St Patrick's away record this season: 3W 4D 4L, but Waterford home record: 2W 6D 3L.
- St Patrick's are 3rd with 41 pts, chasing title; Waterford are 9th with 20 pts, relegation zone.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSt Patrick'sEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Waterford's poor home record and St Patrick's H2H dominance with the visitors' superior league position and motivation, avoiding defeat is highly probable for St Patrick's.
- St Patrick's are unbeaten in last 5 H2H league meetings (3W 2D).
- Waterford have won only 2 of 11 home games this season.
- St Patrick's have lost only 4 of 11 away games, with 7 avoiding defeat.
- Waterford's recent form: 2W 2D 1L in last 5, but against lower-half sides.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or St Patrick'sEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's higher tendency to lead at half-time and Waterford's frequent first-half deficits give the visitors a slight edge, but the low confidence reflects the variability of half-time results.
- St Patrick's lead at half-time in 40% of matches; Waterford lead in 27%.
- Waterford trail at half-time in 47% of matches.
- St Patrick's have won the first half in 2 of their last 5 away games.
- Waterford have lost the first half in 3 of their last 5 home games.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSt Patrick'sEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a St Patrick's win is a plausible scenario given Waterford's tendency to fade and St Patrick's stronger second-half performances, but the specific combination is infrequent.
- St Patrick's have drawn at half-time and won full-time in 1 of last 5 away games.
- Waterford have drawn at half-time and lost full-time in 1 of last 5 home games.
- St Patrick's overall record when drawing at half-time: 2W 2D 1L.
- Waterford's record when drawing at half-time: 1W 3D 2L.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/St Patrick'sEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and H2H history show a tendency for goals, with Waterford's leaky defense (1.8 conceded per game) and St Patrick's attacking quality (1.6 scored per game) supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Waterford's last 5 home games: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals (4-0, 2-2, 3-3, 1-1, 1-1).
- St Patrick's last 5 away games: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals (0-2, 0-1, 2-2, 0-2, 3-1).
- Waterford average 1.7 goals scored and 1.8 conceded overall; St Patrick's average 1.6 scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals (2-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-2, 2-1).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Waterford's consistent scoring at home combined with their defensive frailties and St Patrick's reliable away scoring record makes both teams scoring likely.
- Waterford have scored in 9 of their last 10 home games.
- St Patrick's have scored in 8 of their last 10 away games.
- Waterford have conceded in 10 of 11 home games this season.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 3 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's away defensive record is not strong enough to consistently shut out a Waterford side that regularly finds the net at home, making a clean sheet unlikely.
- St Patrick's have kept only 3 clean sheets in 11 away games this season.
- Waterford have failed to score in only 1 of 11 home games.
- Waterford average 1.27 goals scored at home.
- St Patrick's concede 1.18 goals per away game on average.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonWaterford to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a pattern of first-half goals in recent matches, and their combined first-half averages suggest a high probability of at least one goal before the break.
- Waterford's last 5 home games: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (1, 0, 2, 1, 0).
- St Patrick's last 5 away games: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (0, 1, 1, 1, 1).
- Waterford average 0.7 first-half goals scored, 0.9 conceded.
- St Patrick's average 0.9 first-half goals scored, 0.6 conceded.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's high corner count and Waterford's tendency to concede corners, combined with H2H history, suggest a total corners above 9.5 is likely.
- St Patrick's average 6.2 corners per game; Waterford average 3.9.
- Waterford concede an average of 6.5 opponent corners per game.
- St Patrick's concede an average of 4.3 opponent corners per game.
- Last 5 H2H: total corners averaged 10.2 per game (7, 9, 11, 13, 11).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' disciplinary records and recent match card counts indicate a moderate likelihood of exceeding 3.5 total cards, supported by H2H trends.
- Waterford average 2.1 yellow cards per game; St Patrick's average 1.5.
- Waterford's last 5 home games: total cards (yellow+red) averaged 4.2.
- St Patrick's last 5 away games: total cards averaged 3.8.
- Last 5 H2H: total cards averaged 4.0.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

L4-1St Patrick's Athl.vWaterfordMay 8, 2026PRE

L0-2WaterfordvSt Patrick's Athl.Mar 20, 2026PRE

D1-1St Patrick's Athl.vWaterfordOct 24, 2025PRE

L0-2WaterfordvSt Patrick's Athl.Aug 3, 2025PRE

D2-2St Patrick's Athl.vWaterfordMay 23, 2025PRE

St Patrick's unbeaten in 5 meetingsSt Patrick's: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Waterford Premier Division (Relegation)	23	4	8	11	32-46	20	WWLWD
3	St Patrick's Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	23	12	5	6	38-19	41	WLWWL

21pt gap between teamsWaterford in relegation zone

Recent Form

Waterford

W4-2Derry CityJul 3PRE

W3-2DundalkJun 26PRE

L0-2Shamrock RoversJun 19PRE

W4-0Sligo RoversJun 12PRE

D3-3Drogheda UnitedMay 29PRE

L1-2ShelbourneMay 22PRE

W2-1Drogheda UnitedMay 18PRE

D2-2Derry CityMay 15PRE

L1-4St Patrick's Athl.May 8PRE

D3-3DundalkMay 4PRE

L0-1Shamrock RoversMay 1PRE

D1-1Galway UnitedApr 24PRE

L0-2Sligo RoversApr 18PRE

D1-1BohemiansApr 6PRE

D1-1Shamrock RoversApr 3PRE

St Patrick's

W3-0Galway UnitedJul 3PRE

L0-2BohemiansJun 26PRE

W2-0Sligo RoversJun 19PRE

W2-0Drogheda UnitedJun 12PRE

L0-1Shamrock RoversMay 29PRE

D0-0Derry CityMay 22PRE

L0-1ShelbourneMay 15PRE

W4-1WaterfordMay 8PRE

D1-1Sligo RoversMay 4PRE

D2-2Galway UnitedMay 1PRE

W3-1BohemiansApr 24PRE

W3-1Drogheda UnitedApr 17PRE

L0-1Shamrock RoversApr 10PRE

L0-2DundalkApr 6PRE

W4-1Sligo RoversApr 3PRE

Squad & Injuries

Waterford

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders6

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

St Patrick's

30 available

Attackers5

Midfielders13

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 9.5

Over 3.5

Draw or St Patrick's

St Patrick's

Over 0.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Waterford

St Patrick's

Squad & Injuries

Waterford

St Patrick's