Premier DivisionFull time

Predictions graded

St Patrick's2Drogheda United0

HT 1–0Fri 12 Jun 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 65%–35%ShotsShots 21–10On targetOn target 5–2CornersCorners 12–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Jun 2026, 01:18 · Europe/Bucharest

St Patrick's should extend their 2026 dominance over Drogheda, but the absence of goalkeeper Joseph Anang and the post-break restart add risk to the short home-win price.

The clearest value is in both teams to score (65% estimated vs 47.6% implied) and Drogheda failing to keep a clean sheet (85% vs 54.6%), with over 2.5 goals also offering a slim edge.

Context

St Patrick's official site confirmed on June 3 that Anang would travel with Ghana's 2026 World Cup squad.
- Anang has been a key part of a home defense that conceded only 6 goals in 9 league games.
- No other goalkeeper in the squad has started a league match this season.
St Patrick's won 4-1 at home on 13 March 2026 and 3-1 away on 17 April 2026.
- The 2025 meetings were all goalless draws, showing a clear shift in the fixture.
- St Patrick's have scored 7 goals in the two 2026 meetings, while Drogheda scored only 2.
Drogheda scored in 7 of their last 8 away league games, including against top-half sides.
- They have only failed to score in 2 of 9 away league matches this season.
- Their away goals-per-game average is 1.44, despite winning only twice.
St Patrick's are 3rd with 32 points, 8 behind leaders Shamrock Rovers with a game in hand.
- Drogheda are 8th with 21 points, only 2 points above 9th-placed Sligo Rovers.
- This is the first league match after a 12-day break, which can affect rhythm.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's strong home form and dominant H2H in 2026 give them a clear edge, though the international break and goalkeeper absence introduce some uncertainty.
- St Patrick's have won both 2026 league meetings vs Drogheda by multi-goal margins (4-1 home, 3-1 away).
- St Patrick's home record this season: 6W-1D-2L, 20 goals scored, 6 conceded in 9 matches.
- Drogheda away record: 2W-2D-5L, 13 scored, 20 conceded in 9 matches.
- St Patrick's are 3rd with 32 pts, Drogheda 8th with 21 pts; 11-point gap.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSt Patrick'sEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's home resilience and Drogheda's poor away form make a home win or draw highly likely.
- St Patrick's have lost only 2 of 9 home league games this season.
- Drogheda have won only 2 of 9 away league games.
- St Patrick's are unbeaten in the last 3 H2H meetings (2W, 1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSt Patrick's or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's slight first-half edge and Drogheda's tendency to trail at the break give the hosts a moderate chance, but restart sharpness adds uncertainty.
- St Patrick's led at half-time in 33% of their last 15 matches overall.
- Drogheda trailed at half-time in 47% of their last 15 matches.
- St Patrick's led at HT in the last H2H meeting (2-1).
- St Patrick's home first-half goal difference is +0.4 per game; Drogheda away is -0.5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSt Patrick'sEstimated chance45%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent H2H trend and both teams' goal involvement in their respective home/away splits support a higher-scoring game.
- Both 2026 H2H meetings saw over 2.5 goals (4-1, 3-1).
- St Patrick's home league matches average 2.89 total goals (20 scored, 6 conceded in 9 games).
- Drogheda away matches average 3.67 total goals (13 scored, 20 conceded in 9 games).
- St Patrick's last 5 home games: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Drogheda's consistent away scoring and St Patrick's missing first-choice keeper increase the likelihood of both teams finding the net.
- Both teams scored in both 2026 H2H meetings.
- Drogheda have scored in 7 of their last 8 away league matches.
- St Patrick's have conceded in 4 of their last 6 home league matches.
- St Patrick's goalkeeper Joseph Anang is away on international duty, weakening the defense.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's strong home scoring record and Drogheda's leaky away defense point to the hosts netting at least twice.
- St Patrick's scored 4 and 3 goals in the two 2026 H2H meetings.
- St Patrick's average 2.22 goals per home league game this season.
- St Patrick's have scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 9 home league matches.
- Drogheda concede an average of 2.22 goals per away league game.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSt Patrick's over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Drogheda's poor away defensive record and St Patrick's consistent home scoring make an away clean sheet very unlikely.
- Drogheda have kept only 1 clean sheet in 9 away league games this season.
- St Patrick's have failed to score in only 2 of 9 home league games.
- Drogheda conceded in both 2026 H2H meetings (4 and 3 goals).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSt Patrick's to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2H supports an early breakthrough.
- St Patrick's home first-half record: scored in 7 of 9, conceded in 5 of 9.
- Drogheda away first-half record: scored in 5 of 9, conceded in 7 of 9.
- Both 2026 H2H meetings had a first-half goal (1-1 and 2-1 at HT).
- St Patrick's average 0.7 first-half goals at home, Drogheda concede 0.9 first-half goals away.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
High second-half scoring trends for both teams, especially in recent H2H, suggest the game could open up after the break.
- St Patrick's home second-half goals: 1.5 per game on average.
- Drogheda away second-half goals conceded: 1.3 per game on average.
- Both 2026 H2H meetings had over 1.5 second-half goals (3 and 2 second-half goals).
- St Patrick's last 5 home games: 4 of 5 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Corner trends in this fixture and both teams' season averages lean slightly toward a high corner count, though Drogheda's low corner numbers away add risk.
- St Patrick's home matches average 10.4 total corners (5.6 for, 4.8 against).
- Drogheda away matches average 9.8 total corners (3.7 for, 6.1 against).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 4 of 5 had 10+ corners.
- St Patrick's last 5 home games: 3 of 5 had 10+ corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Drogheda's away games tend to be more card-heavy, and recent H2H history shows a moderate tendency for bookings, though St Patrick's home discipline is decent.
- St Patrick's home matches average 3.0 total cards (1.5 for, 1.5 against).
- Drogheda away matches average 4.6 total cards (2.3 for, 2.3 against).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 3 of 5 had 4+ cards.
- Drogheda's last 5 away games: 4 of 5 had 4+ cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W1-3Drogheda UnitedvSt Patrick's Athl.Apr 17, 2026PRE

L4-1St Patrick's Athl.vDrogheda UnitedMar 13, 2026PRE

W0-1Drogheda UnitedvSt Patrick's Athl.Aug 22, 2025PRE

D0-0St Patrick's Athl.vDrogheda UnitedJun 13, 2025PRE

D0-0Drogheda UnitedvSt Patrick's Athl.Apr 21, 2025PRE

St Patrick's: 3 clean sheetsDrogheda United: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	St Patrick's Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	19	9	5	5	31-17	32	LDLWD
8	Drogheda United	19	5	6	8	25-32	21	DDLLW

11pt gap between teams

Recent Form

St Patrick's

L0-1Shamrock RoversMay 29PRE

D0-0Derry CityMay 22PRE

L0-1ShelbourneMay 15PRE

W4-1WaterfordMay 8PRE

D1-1Sligo RoversMay 4PRE

D2-2Galway UnitedMay 1PRE

W3-1BohemiansApr 24PRE

W3-1Drogheda UnitedApr 17PRE

L0-1Shamrock RoversApr 10PRE

L0-2DundalkApr 6PRE

W4-1Sligo RoversApr 3PRE

W2-0WaterfordMar 20PRE

D0-0Derry CityMar 16PRE

W4-1Drogheda UnitedMar 13PRE

W3-2ShelbourneMar 6PRE

Drogheda United

D3-3WaterfordMay 29PRE

D1-1DundalkMay 22PRE

L1-2WaterfordMay 18PRE

L1-2BohemiansMay 15PRE

W1-0Derry CityMay 8PRE

L1-4Shamrock RoversMay 4PRE

W1-0Sligo RoversMay 1PRE

W4-3ShelbourneApr 24PRE

L1-3St Patrick's Athl.Apr 17PRE

L2-3Galway UnitedApr 6PRE

D0-0BohemiansApr 3PRE

D2-2Derry CityMar 20PRE

D0-0Shamrock RoversMar 16PRE

L1-4St Patrick's Athl.Mar 13PRE

L1-2Sligo RoversMar 7PRE

Squad & Injuries

St Patrick's

30 available

Attackers5

Midfielders13

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Drogheda United

25 available

Attackers7

Midfielders7

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Over 2.5

St Patrick's to score

St Patrick's

St Patrick's or Draw

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Drogheda United

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

St Patrick's

Drogheda United

Squad & Injuries

St Patrick's

Drogheda United