Shelbourne1St Patrick's2

HT 0–2Sun 9 Aug 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–8–111%

Edges0–40%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 15–11On targetOn target 3–3CornersCorners 5–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 00:04 · Europe/Bucharest

The strongest betting edge is the first‑half draw at 2.10, with a +12.4‑point value gap driven by both teams' high first‑half draw rates and a H2H history of four draws in the last five meetings.

Under 2.5 goals at 1.70 also offers a small edge, while the first‑half under 1.5 goals and St Patrick's draw no bet are overpriced and should be avoided. Resolve the fixture date conflict before placing any bets.

Context

Russell was appointed on 13 July, giving him only four weeks with the squad before this match.
- He stated he wants Shelbourne to be brave in possession and aggressive out of possession, indicating a potential tactical shift.
- The team is still in an early-manager transition rather than an established setup.
Wood departed on 16 July, leaving a gap in the squad during the season.
- Shelbourne stated they reluctantly agreed to the transfer after Wood requested a return to the UK.
- The loss of a key player mid-season can disrupt team chemistry and depth.
St Patrick's away record: 3 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses in 12 matches.
- They have failed to win in their last 5 away league matches (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses).
- Their away goals conceded average is 1.1 per game, but they score only 1.3 per game on the road.
Last six league H2H results: 0-1, 2-3, 0-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0.
- Four of those six matches had under 2.5 goals.
- Three of the six ended with a clean sheet for one side.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates in their respective home/away splits, and recent form shows neither side is dominant, making a draw a plausible outcome.
- Shelbourne home record: 3W-5D-5L; St Patrick's away record: 3W-5D-4L.
- Shelbourne's last 5 home league matches: 1W-2D-2L; St Patrick's last 5 away league matches: 0W-3D-2L.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 2 Shelbourne wins, 1 St Patrick's win, 2 draws.
- Shelbourne are 5th, St Patrick's are 2nd, but Shelbourne's new manager transition adds uncertainty.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's poor away win rate and Shelbourne's ability to avoid defeat in most recent home H2H meetings support a double chance for the home side.
- Shelbourne have lost only 2 of 12 away league matches this season, but at home they have lost 5 of 13.
- St Patrick's have won only 3 of 12 away league matches.
- Shelbourne are unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 home league matches (1W-2D-2L).
- H2H at Shelbourne (last 3): 2-3 loss, 0-0 draw, 2-1 win (Shelbourne avoided defeat in 2 of 3).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostShelbourne or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high first-half draw percentages, and H2H meetings frequently end the first half level, making a draw at halftime the most likely outcome.
- Shelbourne's first-half home record: 27% lead, 20% trail, 53% draw.
- St Patrick's first-half away record: 33% lead, 33% trail, 33% draw.
- Last 5 H2H first-half results: D, W (Shelbourne), D, D, D (4 draws).
- Shelbourne's last 5 home first-half results: D, W, W, L, D (3 draws).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While H2H shows a high Draw/Draw rate, the overall season percentages are low, so this is a speculative pick based on the pattern of tight, low-scoring first halves.
- Shelbourne home HT/FT: 2/13 Draw/Draw (15%).
- St Patrick's away HT/FT: 1/12 Draw/Draw (8%).
- H2H last 5: 2 matches were Draw/Draw (40%).
- Both teams have high draw rates overall, but Draw/Draw is still a low-probability specific outcome.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology shows a strong under 2.5 goals trend, and St Patrick's away matches are consistently low-scoring, supporting a low total.
- Four of the last six league H2H meetings finished under 2.5 goals (last 3 years).
- Shelbourne home matches average 2.92 total goals this season, but St Patrick's away matches average 2.17 total goals.
- Shelbourne's last 5 home league matches: 2, 3, 3, 2, 0 goals (3 of 5 under 2.5).
- St Patrick's last 5 away league matches: 2, 2, 2, 1, 1 goals (all under 2.5).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
H2H pattern of clean sheets and both teams' inconsistent scoring in respective home/away splits suggest at least one side may fail to score.
- Three of the last six league H2H meetings ended with a clean sheet for one side.
- Shelbourne failed to score in 2 of their last 5 home league matches.
- St Patrick's kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5 away league matches.
- Shelbourne's home clean sheet rate is 15% (2/13), St Patrick's away clean sheet rate is 25% (3/12).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring averages, and H2H history shows a consistent pattern of few goals before the break.
- Shelbourne average 0.7 first-half goals at home, conceding 0.6.
- St Patrick's average 0.6 first-half goals away, conceding 0.6.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, first-half goals: 0, 1, 0, 0, 0 (all under 1.5).
- Shelbourne's last 5 home league matches: first-half goals total 0, 2, 1, 1, 0 (4 of 5 under 1.5).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While not overwhelming, the data shows a tendency for more goals in the second half, especially in H2H meetings, though confidence is low due to mixed recent form.
- Shelbourne's last 5 home league matches: second-half goals total 2, 1, 2, 1, 0 (3 of 5 over 1.5).
- St Patrick's last 5 away league matches: second-half goals total 1, 1, 2, 1, 1 (2 of 5 over 1.5).
- Overall, Shelbourne home matches average 1.69 second-half goals, St Patrick's away matches average 1.25.
- H2H last 5: second-half goals 1, 2, 0, 2, 1 (3 of 5 over 1.5).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, and recent H2H and home matches for Shelbourne often exceed 9.5, though consistency is lacking.
- Shelbourne home matches average 5.4 corners for, 4.5 against (total 9.9).
- St Patrick's away matches average 5.9 corners for, 5.3 against (total 11.2).
- Last 5 H2H with corner data: 14, 7, 9, 8, 7 (3 of 5 over 9.5).
- Shelbourne's last 5 home league matches: total corners 9, 17, 5, 8, 18 (3 over 9.5).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderpushOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages and recent H2H meetings suggest a moderate likelihood of exceeding 4.5 cards, though discipline can be unpredictable.
- Shelbourne home matches average 2.7 yellow cards, 0.3 red cards.
- St Patrick's away matches average 1.9 yellow cards, 0.3 red cards.
- Combined average cards per match: Shelbourne 3.0, St Patrick's 2.2, total 5.2.
- Last 5 H2H with card data: 3, 5, 7, 5, 4 (3 of 5 over 4.5).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 54.6% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; odds are near fair and the market is efficient.

Prediction history

Shelbourne Over 9.5 corners has rarely hit

Shelbourne's Over 9.5 corners projection has fulfilled in only 1 of 6 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 55.5%, expecting around 3.3 hits, but the actual fulfilment fell well short. At home, where they play today, the record is 1 hit from 4 attempts, while both away games missed.

Recent evidence for Shelbourne6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

3 Jul·Premier Division