Premier DivisionFull time

Predictions graded

Drogheda United2Dundalk3

HT 2–1Fri 28 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 42%–58%ShotsShots 13–15On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 23:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Drogheda United or Draw at 1.62 — our model gives it a 68% chance, a +6.3-point edge, driven by Drogheda’s unbeaten H2H record and home resilience.

Avoid Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes, and both clean sheet markets, as the odds imply far higher probabilities than our estimates, and the derby is likely to be tight and low-scoring.

Context

1-1 draw at Dundalk on 20 February 2026
- 1-1 draw at Drogheda on 22 May 2026
- 2-1 away win for Drogheda at Dundalk on 10 July 2026
Away record: 3 wins, 7 draws, 4 losses
- 10 unbeaten in 14 away games
- Recent away results include draws at St Patrick's and Shamrock Rovers
Home record: 3 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses
- 14 goals scored in 14 home matches
- Failed to score in only 4 home games
Last 5 H2H results: 2-1, 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-0
- Average of 1.2 goals per game in those matches
- Both teams scored in only 2 of the last 5 meetings

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Dundalk's away matches average 3.21 total goals and Drogheda's home games often feature goals, but the H2H trend and Drogheda's modest home scoring make this a marginal call.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings and each side has decent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, but the odds are slightly short.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score in the first half, but the odds heavily favor the over and leave no value.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Dundalk to score

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Drogheda's poor home defensive record and Dundalk's consistent away scoring make a home clean sheet unlikely, but the odds are too short.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Drogheda United to score

1.18fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Dundalk's away defensive struggles and Drogheda's home scoring ability make an away clean sheet unlikely, but the odds are extremely short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Drogheda's strong H2H record and home advantage, combined with Dundalk's poor away form, support a home win, though Drogheda's overall season struggles temper confidence.
- Drogheda are unbeaten in the last 5 H2H meetings (3 draws, 2 wins), including a 2-1 away win on 10 July 2026.
- Drogheda's home record this season: 3W-6D-5L, with 14 goals scored and 18 conceded in 14 home matches.
- Dundalk's away record: 3W-7D-4L, with 20 goals scored and 25 conceded in 14 away matches.
- Drogheda's recent form (last 5): LDDDW; Dundalk's recent form (last 5): LLDDL.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrogheda UnitedEstimated chance38%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Drogheda's strong H2H record and solid home form makes them unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance of home win or draw.
- Drogheda are unbeaten in the last 5 H2H meetings (3 draws, 2 wins).
- Drogheda's home record: 3W-6D-5L (9 unbeaten in 14 home games).
- Dundalk's away record: 3W-7D-4L (10 unbeaten in 14 away games).
- Drogheda's recent home form includes draws against Shamrock Rovers and Waterford.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDrogheda United or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Drogheda's poor first-half record and Dundalk's strong first-half tendency suggest Dundalk might lead, but the H2H balance and Drogheda's home resilience make a draw at halftime a solid possibility.
- Drogheda led at halftime in only 20% of last 15 matches, trailed in 53%.
- Dundalk led at halftime in 53% of last 15 matches, trailed in 20%.
- In last 5 H2H meetings, halftime results: 1 draw, 2 Drogheda leads, 2 Dundalk leads.
- Drogheda's home first-half record: 0.7 goals scored, 0.8 conceded on average.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Drogheda win is plausible given their H2H comeback ability and home advantage, but it's a specific outcome with low probability.
- Drogheda have come from behind to win in 2 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Drogheda's home record: 3 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses; often draws at halftime.
- Dundalk's away record: 3 wins, 7 draws, 4 losses; often draws at halftime.
- Drogheda's recent form shows resilience (e.g., 2-2 draw vs Sligo after trailing).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Drogheda UnitedEstimated chance18%

Goals6 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite low-scoring H2H history, Dundalk's away games tend to be high-scoring, and Drogheda's home games often feature goals, making over 2.5 a reasonable bet.
- Drogheda's home matches average 2.29 total goals (14 scored + 18 conceded in 14 games).
- Dundalk's away matches average 3.21 total goals (20 scored + 25 conceded in 14 games).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 2-1, 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-0 (average 1.2 goals per game).
- Dundalk's recent away matches have seen 3+ goals in 3 of last 5 away games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability in their respective home/away splits, and the H2H has seen both teams score in recent meetings, supporting BTTS Yes.
- Drogheda have scored in 10 of 14 home matches this season.
- Dundalk have scored in 11 of 14 away matches this season.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings (2-1 and 1-1).
- Drogheda's home games: 14 goals scored, 18 conceded; Dundalk's away games: 20 scored, 25 conceded.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and the H2H has seen first-half goals in recent meetings, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Drogheda average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded in last 15 matches.
- Dundalk average 1.1 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in last 15 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, first-half goals occurred in 3 matches (2-1, 1-1, 1-1).
- Dundalk led at halftime in 53% of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' tendencies, but the low-scoring H2H history reduces confidence, so this is a low-probability over bet.
- Drogheda's home matches average 1.14 second-half goals (total 2.29 - first half 1.15).
- Dundalk's away matches average 1.71 second-half goals (total 3.21 - first half 1.5).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: second-half goals in 3 matches (2-1, 1-1, 1-1).
- Dundalk's recent away games have seen second-half goals in 4 of last 5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Drogheda's poor home defensive record and Dundalk's consistent away scoring make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Drogheda have kept only 3 clean sheets in 14 home matches this season.
- Dundalk have scored in 11 of 14 away matches this season.
- Drogheda conceded in 11 of 14 home matches.
- Dundalk average 1.43 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDundalk to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's away defensive struggles and Drogheda's home scoring ability make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Dundalk have kept only 2 clean sheets in 14 away matches this season.
- Drogheda have scored in 10 of 14 home matches this season.
- Dundalk conceded in 12 of 14 away matches.
- Drogheda average 1.0 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDrogheda United to scoreEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate corners, especially Dundalk, and the recent H2H had a high corner count, but the line is high and confidence is low.
- Drogheda average 4.2 corners per match, concede 7.2 corners per match (last 15).
- Dundalk average 6.0 corners per match, concede 3.9 corners per match (last 15).
- Combined average corners in Drogheda matches: 11.4; in Dundalk matches: 9.9.
- Last H2H meeting (10 July 2026): Drogheda 5 corners, Dundalk 10 corners (total 15).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The average combined cards exceed 4.5, and derby intensity typically increases card counts, supporting over 4.5 cards.
- Drogheda average 2.3 yellow cards per match, Dundalk average 2.3 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards in Drogheda matches: 4.6; in Dundalk matches: 4.6.
- Last H2H meeting: Drogheda 1 yellow, Dundalk 1 yellow (total 2).
- Derby matches often have higher card counts due to intensity.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 35.7% leaves no cushion vs our 38% estimate; the edge is only 2.3pts and the market is efficient on this outcome.

Prediction history

Drogheda United has struggled to clear 9.5 corners in recent matches

Drogheda United has fulfilled 2 of 5 Over 9.5 corners predictions. The average estimated probability was 57%, but only 40% of predictions matched. Notably, both fulfilled predictions came away from home, while both home matches missed.

Recent evidence for Drogheda United5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

10 Jul·Premier Division