Premier DivisionFull time

Predictions graded

Drogheda United0St Patrick's2

HT 0–1Fri 21 Aug 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 37%–63%ShotsShots 6–16On targetOn target 1–5CornersCorners 2–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Aug 2026, 23:38 · Europe/Bucharest

St Patrick's have won all three 2026 league meetings vs Drogheda by a combined 9-2, but the away win at 1.62 offers no value.

The best betting edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.50 (+15 points), while Over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.30 is a clear avoid.

Context

St Patrick's won 4-1 at home on 13 March.
- St Patrick's won 3-1 away on 17 April.
- St Patrick's won 2-0 at home on 12 June.
Drogheda home record: 3W-6D-4L.
- They have drawn 10 of 27 league games overall.
- They lost their last home league game 0-2 to Bohemians.
St Patrick's away record: 4W-5D-4L.
- They lost 0-2 at Bohemians on 26 June.
- They drew 1-1 at Waterford on 10 July.
Drogheda United injury list is empty.
- St Patrick's injury list is empty.
- No suspension news found in intel.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

St Patrick's

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

St Patrick's have won all three 2026 league meetings vs Drogheda and are far superior in the standings, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or St Patrick's

1.17fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

St Patrick's dominance and Drogheda's high draw rate make the away side avoiding defeat highly likely, but the odds are very short.

2 Nd Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

St Patrick's

2.10fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 47.6%

0.0ppshort

St Patrick's superior quality often shows in the second half, and they have a recent H2H edge in that period, but the odds are slightly against us.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score and concede in the first half, and H2H history supports early goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's have dominated the H2H this season and are far superior in the standings, making them clear favourites despite playing away.
- St Patrick's have won all three 2026 league meetings vs Drogheda (4-1, 3-1, 2-0).
- St Patrick's are 2nd with 47 points; Drogheda are 9th with 28 points.
- St Patrick's away record: 4W-5D-4L; Drogheda home record: 3W-6D-4L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSt Patrick'sEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given St Patrick's dominance and Drogheda's high draw rate, the away side avoiding defeat is highly likely.
- St Patrick's have won all three 2026 league meetings vs Drogheda.
- Drogheda have drawn 10 of 27 league games this season.
- St Patrick's have lost only 6 of 27 league games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or St Patrick'sEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half records, and a level score at the break is a common outcome.
- Drogheda have led at half-time in only 20% of matches; trailed in 47%.
- St Patrick's have led at half-time in 33% and trailed in 33%.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 2 were level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's superior quality often shows in the second half, and they have a recent H2H edge in that period.
- St Patrick's have a better goal difference in the second half across the season.
- St Patrick's have won the second half in 2 of the last 3 H2H meetings.
- Drogheda have lost the second half in 5 of their last 10 league matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSt Patrick'sEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a St Patrick's win is a plausible sequence given their second-half strength.
- Drogheda have drawn at half-time in 33% of matches.
- St Patrick's have won 48% of their matches overall.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 2 were level at half-time and St Patrick's won the match.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/St Patrick'sEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H trend and both teams' scoring records suggest a decent chance of at least three goals.
- H2H this season: 4-1, 3-1, 2-0 (all over 2.5 except 2-0).
- Drogheda average 1.3 goals for and 1.3 against; St Patrick's average 1.4 for and 1.0 against.
- St Patrick's have scored 9 goals in 3 H2H games vs Drogheda this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Drogheda's home scoring ability and St Patrick's occasional away defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.
- Drogheda have scored in 8 of their last 10 league matches.
- St Patrick's have conceded in 5 of their last 7 away league matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in 3 of them.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score and concede in the first half, and H2H history supports early goals.
- Drogheda average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.7 against.
- St Patrick's average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.6 against.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been relatively productive in this fixture, with both teams capable of scoring after the break.
- Drogheda average 0.6 second-half goals for and 0.6 against.
- St Patrick's average 0.7 second-half goals for and 0.4 against.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 had at least two second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the H2H trend suggests a high total is possible.
- Drogheda average 4.2 corners per game; St Patrick's average 6.0.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams: ~10.2.
- In the last H2H meeting, total corners were 17 (12-5).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Patrick's attacking volume could push the total shots on target above the line.
- Drogheda average 3.1 shots on target per game; St Patrick's average 4.8.
- Combined average shots on target: ~7.9.
- St Patrick's have had 5+ shots on target in 4 of their last 6 league matches.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate disciplinary records, and the total cards could exceed 3.5.
- Drogheda average 2.3 yellow cards per game; St Patrick's average 2.0.
- Combined average yellow cards: ~4.3.
- In the last H2H meeting, total yellow cards were 3.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 22% leaves no cushion vs our 20% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Drogheda United has underperformed Over 2.5 goals projections

Drogheda United has fulfilled 3 of 7 Over 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 57.9%, but only 43% of matches hit Over 2.5. At home, just 1 of 4 such predictions matched, while away 2 of 3 matched.

Recent evidence for Drogheda United7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Premier Division