Shamrock Rovers3Dundalk2

HT 3–2Fri 7 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–633%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 14–12On targetOn target 8–5CornersCorners 1–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Aug 2026, 16:42 · Europe/Bucharest

The last five H2Hs all went under 2.5 goals, and with Shamrock Rovers’ stout home defense and Dundalk’s away scoring woes, the under 2.5 goals at 2.05 offers a 23-point edge.

The first-half under 1.5 goals at 1.48 is also value, while the home win is overpriced given Dundalk’s unbeaten 2026 H2H record and Rovers’ European fatigue.

Context

Rovers overturned a 2-0 deficit against Floriana on 14 July, then faced Ararat-Armenia on 21 and 28 July.
- The Ararat second leg was only 10 days before this match, with travel and high intensity.
- Captain Pico Lopes returned from Cape Verde's World Cup run straight into the Floriana tie, adding to the physical toll.
Dundalk beat Rovers 1-0 on 15 May 2026, holding them to zero goals despite 69% possession for Rovers.
- The 23 February meeting ended 1-1 at Tallaght, with Dundalk scoring first.
- Across the last five competitive H2Hs, all finished under 2.5 goals, averaging 1.20 per game.
Grivosti, 27, joined from St Patrick's Athletic and played 27 minutes against Sligo Rovers on 31 July.
- Dundalk conceded a 91st-minute equaliser in that match due to a defensive mistake.
- Manager Ciarán Kilduff now has an experienced option to partner in central defence.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shamrock Rovers' dominant home form and Dundalk's poor recent run give the hosts a clear edge, but Dundalk's unbeaten H2H record this season (1 win, 1 draw) tempers confidence.
- Shamrock Rovers home record: 9 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in 12 league games.
- Dundalk away record: 3 wins, 7 draws, 3 losses in 13 league games.
- Shamrock Rovers are top of the table with 51 points; Dundalk are 4th with 37 points.
- Recent form: Shamrock Rovers DWWDW (last 5 league games); Dundalk DDLLL (last 5 league games).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonShamrock RoversEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Shamrock Rovers' fortress-like home record and Dundalk's poor away win rate make a home win or draw highly probable, despite Dundalk's recent H2H success.
- Shamrock Rovers have lost only 1 of 12 home league games this season.
- Dundalk have won only 3 of 13 away league games this season.
- H2H this season: 1-0 Dundalk win and 1-1 draw, but both were tight contests.
- Shamrock Rovers are unbeaten in 8 of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonShamrock Rovers or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half performance metrics, and the H2H pattern of level scores at the break suggests a draw is the most likely half-time outcome.
- Shamrock Rovers led at half-time in 47% of recent matches; Dundalk led in 53%.
- Last 5 H2Hs: 3 were draws at half-time.
- Shamrock Rovers home first-half record: 5 draws in 12 league games.
- Dundalk away first-half record: 6 draws in 13 league games.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half is expected, and Shamrock Rovers' superior second-half performance at home could lead to a narrow win, but the low probability reflects the risk of a draw or Dundalk holding on.
- Shamrock Rovers have won 5 of 12 home games after being level at half-time.
- Dundalk have drawn 7 of 13 away games at half-time, but lost only 3 of those matches.
- H2H this season: one match was 0-0 at half-time and ended 1-0 to Dundalk.
- Shamrock Rovers tend to score more in the second half at home (1.08 second-half goals per game).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Shamrock RoversEstimated chance28%

Goals0 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The strong H2H pattern of low-scoring encounters, combined with Shamrock Rovers' solid home defense (0.75 goals conceded per game) and Dundalk's inconsistent away attack, supports a high probability of under 2.5 goals.
- Last 5 competitive H2Hs all finished under 2.5 goals, averaging 1.20 goals per match.
- Shamrock Rovers home record: 22 goals scored, 9 conceded in 12 league games (2.58 total goals per game).
- Dundalk away record: 18 goals scored, 22 conceded in 13 league games (3.08 total goals per game).
- Recent form: Shamrock Rovers last 5 league games averaged 2.0 total goals; Dundalk last 5 league games averaged 2.8 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shamrock Rovers' strong home defensive record and Dundalk's recent away scoring struggles, reinforced by the low-scoring H2H trend, make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Shamrock Rovers kept 5 clean sheets in 12 home league games this season.
- Dundalk failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away league matches.
- Last 5 H2Hs: both teams scored in only 1 of 5 meetings.
- Shamrock Rovers conceded only 0.75 goals per home game; Dundalk scored 1.38 goals per away game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half scoring rates, and the H2H history shows tight first halves, making under 1.5 first-half goals a strong bet.
- Shamrock Rovers average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded in last 15 matches.
- Dundalk average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in last 15 matches.
- Last 5 H2Hs: only 1 match had more than 1 first-half goal.
- Shamrock Rovers home first-half record: 7 of 12 league games had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's high corner count, especially away from home, and the historical H2H trend of double-digit corners support over 9.5 corners in this match.
- Shamrock Rovers average 4.3 corners per game; Dundalk average 6.3 corners per game.
- Combined average corners in Shamrock Rovers matches: 8.6; in Dundalk matches: 11.8.
- Last 5 H2Hs with corner data: 3 of 5 had 10 or more corners.
- Dundalk's last 5 away games averaged 11.2 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate disciplinary records, and the H2H history shows frequent cards, making over 3.5 cards a reasonable expectation.
- Shamrock Rovers average 1.9 yellow cards per game; Dundalk average 2.2 yellow cards per game.
- Combined average cards in Shamrock Rovers matches: 4.1; in Dundalk matches: 4.4.
- Last 5 H2Hs with card data: 4 of 5 had 4 or more cards.
- Dundalk's last 5 away games averaged 4.6 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 50% leaves no cushion vs our 58% estimate; vig too heavy for a MEDIUM-confidence play.

Prediction history

Shamrock Rovers have been inconsistent when projected to win

Shamrock Rovers have won 6 of 13 matches when predicted to win, with an average estimated probability of 55%. At home, they have fulfilled 4 of 6 such predictions, but away only 2 of 7. The current prediction of 52% is within the historical range of 45–72%.

Recent evidence for Shamrock Rovers13 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Premier Division