Dundalk1Bohemians2

HT 0–1Fri 2 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions10–377%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 11–12On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 2–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 02:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Bohemians, third and chasing the title, visit a Dundalk side with one win in seven home matches and seven players unavailable.

Bohemians are the likelier winners and goals at both ends are well supported. The prices offer nothing, though: 1.95 on Bohemians, 1.53 on over 2.5 goals, 1.5 on both teams scoring and 1.22 on a first-half goal all ask for more than the football supports, and the 1.3 draw-or-Bohemians double chance is level.

Context

Dundalk have just lost two home league games heavily, 0-4 to St Patrick's Athletic and 2-3 to Shelbourne, and Kilduff's response has been to reject relegation framing and back his group to ride out the "storm". How a manager positions a struggling side in front of its own supporters is part of the picture for this fixture, particularly with several players unavailable. The framing is his own; nothing in the results so far shows it has changed the team's form.
- Dundalk manager Ciarán Kilduff pushed back on the idea of a relegation battle after Shelbourne's two late goals cost his side a much-needed win, and backed the squad to come through the "storm" they are in.
- Kilduff previously played for Dundalk, and local coverage of the club still marks his 2016 goal against Maccabi Tel Aviv.
ReportedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 02:19 · Europe/Bucharest
Dundalk's home form is the sharpest story: one win, one draw and five defeats in seven Oriel Park matches tracked from 26 June to 18 September, scoring and conceding 2.14 goals a game. They kept a single clean sheet across those seven games and both teams found the net in five of them. Their scoring is the counterweight, but they are conceding at the same rate as they score at home. Bohemians' away results this season are what make that reading matter.
- Seven home matches tracked from 26 June to 18 September: one win, one draw, five defeats.
- Those matches averaged 2.14 goals for and 2.14 against per game, with one clean sheet and both teams scoring in five of the seven.
Bohemians' away matches tracked from 3 July to 11 September have been decided after the break: one first-half goal in five games, against 1.4 per game in the second half. They kept two clean sheets away but conceded 1.0 first-half goals per game, so the pattern is a slow start on the road and a stronger finish. It argues against expecting an early goal from the visitors at Oriel Park.
- Five away matches tracked from 3 July to 11 September: two wins, one draw, two defeats, 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game.
- In those away matches Bohemians averaged 0.2 first-half goals and 1.4 second-half goals, with two clean sheets and 1.0 first-half goals conceded per game.
The Premier Division fixture list was revised in early September, moving this Oriel Park game from 9 October to 2 October, and both clubs have since planned around the new date. The change matters because this meeting now falls a week before Bohemians' cup semi-final rather than a week after it. The move cleared 9 October for the semi-final at Dalymount Park, so the schedule change is a knock-on from Bohemians' cup run rather than anything about either side's league position.
- The Premier Division fixture list was revised so Dundalk v Bohemians at Oriel Park moved from Friday 9 October to Friday 2 October at 19:45.
- Waterford v Galway United and Derry City v St Patrick's Athletic were also moved as part of the same September fixture update.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 02:19 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 82%

−9.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches almost always produce a goal before half-time and the combined first-half rates support that.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 66.7%

−3.7ppshort

Dundalk find the net almost every week but concede just as often, and Bohemians carry enough attacking threat to reply.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.53fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 65.4%

−4.4ppshort

Dundalk's matches are consistently high-scoring at both ends and Bohemians have been putting up two or more goals regularly.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Bohemians

1.95fair 1.96

BetBugs 51% · Market 51.3%

−0.3ppshort

Bohemians have been the stronger side all season and travel well, while Dundalk are short of players and conceding regularly at home.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.95
The read
Bohemians have been the stronger side all season and travel well, while Dundalk are short of players and conceding regularly at home.
- Bohemians are 3rd on 56 points with a league away record of 9W-2D-4L (28 scored, 18 conceded)
- Bohemians average 2.07 goals scored and 1.14 conceded across 14 competitive matches
- Dundalk's league home record is 6W-3D-7L, conceding 25 in 16 at Oriel Park
- Dundalk are without suspended Shane Tracey and six injured players
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBohemiansEstimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Half-time stalemates are the most common outcome in this division and both teams are patient starters.
- Dundalk home first halves average 1.71 goals combined
- Bohemians away first halves average 1.2 goals combined
- Bohemians have been level at half-time in several recent away matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bohemians do most of their scoring after the break, while Dundalk have been conceding regularly in second halves at home.
- Bohemians score 1.43 second-half goals and concede 0.5
- Bohemians away second halves average 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded
- Dundalk home second halves average 1.14 scored and 1.43 conceded
- Bohemians' last four league games produced 13 second-half goals
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostBohemiansEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Bohemians have been the stronger side all season and travel well, while Dundalk are short of players and conceding regularly at home. Both sides have shown spells of parity in this fixture and Dundalk have scrambled points at home despite their poor run.
- Bohemians are 3rd on 56 points with a league away record of 9W-2D-4L (28 scored, 18 conceded)
- Bohemians average 2.07 goals scored and 1.14 conceded across 14 competitive matches
- Two of the last five head-to-heads finished level
- Bohemians have drawn 2 of 15 away league games this season
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or BohemiansEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dundalk do their best work early at home while Bohemians have barely scored in first halves on the road. Half-time stalemates are the most common outcome in this division and both teams are patient starters.
- Dundalk average 1.13 first-half goals, and 1.0 per home match
- Bohemians score 0.2 first-half goals per away game and concede 1.0
- Dundalk home first halves average 1.71 goals combined
- Bohemians away first halves average 1.2 goals combined
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDundalk or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals6 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Dundalk's matches are consistently high-scoring at both ends and Bohemians have been putting up two or more goals regularly.
- Dundalk average 2.0 goals for and 2.0 against per game over 15 matches
- Dundalk's seven home matches average 4.29 goals combined
- Bohemians average 2.07 scored and 1.14 conceded
- 13 of Dundalk's 15 matches had both teams score
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Dundalk find the net almost every week but concede just as often, and Bohemians carry enough attacking threat to reply.
- Dundalk scored in 14 of 15 matches and both teams scored in 13 of them
- Dundalk conceded in all six of their listed recent matches
- Bohemians both scored in 3 of their 5 away splits
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams' recent matches almost always produce a goal before half-time and the combined first-half rates support that.
- All six of Dundalk's listed recent matches had at least one first-half goal
- Dundalk home first halves average 1.71 goals combined
- Bohemians away first halves average 1.2 goals combined
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in both teams' recent matches have been the highest-scoring period and both keep attacking late.
- Dundalk home second halves average 2.57 goals combined
- Bohemians' last four league games produced 13 second-half goals
- Bohemians score 1.43 and concede 0.5 in second halves
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bohemians' weak first-half away scoring makes a shared first half clearly the less likely outcome.
- Bohemians score 0.2 first-half goals per away league game
- Dundalk have conceded 0.71 first-half goals per home match
- Bohemians' overall first-half scoring is 0.64 per match
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bohemians have scored at least twice in six straight matches and Dundalk concede heavily at Oriel Park.
- Bohemians scored two or more in each of their last six matches
- Bohemians average 1.6 goals per away league game
- Dundalk concede 2.14 goals per home match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBohemians over 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two teams' combined corner averages fall short of the line, with Dundalk in particular giving up few corners at home.
- Dundalk home corners average 6.67 for and 2.83 against
- Bohemians away corners average 5.25 for and 4.0 against
- Combined averages sit just under the 10.5 line
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's matches have been card-heavy and a depleted, struggling home side often commits more fouls.
- Dundalk home matches average 3.7 yellow cards combined
- Dundalk's tracked matches average 4.6 yellow cards
- Bohemians' tracked matches average 3.3 yellow cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance54%

Prediction history

Bohemians: 5/8 recent winner projections matched

5 of 8 comparable winner projections favouring Bohemians matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Bohemians8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·UEFA Europa Conference League