Premier DivisionFull time

Predictions graded

Bohemians2Drogheda United1

HT 1–0Fri 18 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–282%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 20–11On targetOn target 6–3CornersCorners 11–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 04:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Bohemians are likely to win or draw, but the odds offer no value on the home win or double chance.

The best value is a small edge on Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.88, while Over 2.5 goals and Over 0.5 first-half goals are overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Bohemians are third in the Premier Division with 53 points from 30 matches, and they are chasing a European qualification spot.
They beat Galway United 3-2 away on 11 September, Sligo Rovers 3-0 at home on 28 August, and Derry City 5-3 at home on 21 August. This run shows they are scoring freely and winning games, which makes them dangerous against a Drogheda side that has conceded 49 goals this season. However, their home record is less dominant with only six wins in 15 matches, so Drogheda may still find chances.
- Bohemians won 3-2 at Galway United on 11 September 2026.
- Bohemians won 3-0 at home to Sligo Rovers on 28 August 2026.
- Bohemians won 5-3 at home to Derry City on 21 August 2026.
Drogheda United are ninth in the Premier Division with 34 points from 31 matches, and they are currently in the relegation play-off position.
They have won their last two league matches, beating Shelbourne 2-1 away on 14 September and Sligo Rovers 2-0 at home on 11 September. Those wins have lifted them level on points with Waterford, but their goal difference is worse. This match is important for them to keep climbing away from the bottom, and they will likely be motivated to get a result against a higher-placed team.
- Drogheda United are 9th in the Premier Division with 34 points from 31 matches.
- They are level on points with 8th-placed Waterford but have a worse goal difference (-12 vs -9).
- Drogheda United won their last two league matches: 2-1 at Shelbourne on 14 September and 2-0 at home to Sligo Rovers on 11 September.
The teams have met three times in the Premier Division this season, with Bohemians winning twice and one draw.
In the most recent match on 3 July 2026, Bohemians won 2-0 at Drogheda United. Earlier, Bohemians won 2-1 at home on 15 May 2026, and the teams drew 0-0 at Drogheda on 3 April 2026. Bohemians have had the better of this fixture recently, which may give them confidence, but Drogheda's improved form could make this match closer.
- Bohemians won 2-0 at Drogheda United on 3 July 2026.
- Bohemians won 2-1 at home to Drogheda United on 15 May 2026.
- The teams drew 0-0 at Drogheda United on 3 April 2026.
Bohemians defender S. Todd has not started any of the five recent fixtures with available lineups.
His confirmed quad injury removes a defensive option for the home side. Bohemians will need to rely on their current available defenders, and the absence may limit in-game defensive substitutions.
- Bohemians named Sam Todd as remaining out with a quad injury on September 11.
- The same club preview had listed Todd unavailable before the FAI Cup quarter-final a week earlier.
- S. Todd started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 04:49 · Europe/BucharestBohemian Football Club match previewbohemians.ie · 11 Sep 2026Bohemian Football Club cup previewbohemians.ie · 4 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Bohemians

1.33fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 75%

0.0ppshort

The predictor's 55% estimate is below the 75% implied probability, so the odds do not offer value despite Bohemians' superior league position.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bohemians or Draw

1.09fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 92%

−12.0ppshort

The predictor's 80% estimate is below the 92% implied probability, so the odds are too short to offer value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent scoring and conceding trends, combined with H2H history, support a relatively high-scoring match.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, and H2H history shows early scoring is common.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bohemians' superior league position, recent H2H dominance, and stronger home form give them the edge, though Drogheda's recent away win adds uncertainty.
- Bohemians are 3rd with 53 points, Drogheda 9th with 34 points.
- Bohemians won 3 of last 5 H2H, including 2-0 away in July 2026.
- Bohemians home record: 6W 6D 3L; Drogheda away: 4W 4D 7L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBohemiansEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bohemians' strong home resilience and Drogheda's poor away record make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Bohemians have lost only 3 of 15 home matches this season.
- Drogheda have won only 4 of 15 away matches.
- Bohemians are unbeaten in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBohemians or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team has a strong first-half lead tendency, but Bohemians' home advantage gives a slight edge.
- Bohemians led at half-time in 33% of matches, Drogheda in 33%.
- Bohemians average 0.7 first-half goals, Drogheda 0.9.
- H2H first-half results are mixed.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBohemiansEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A Bohemians half-time lead and full-time win is plausible but not strongly supported by the data.
- Bohemians led at half-time in 33% of matches and won 50% overall.
- Drogheda trailed at half-time in 40% and lost 42% overall.
- H2H shows Bohemians winning after leading at half-time in one recent meeting.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonBohemians/BohemiansEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent scoring and conceding trends, combined with H2H history, support a relatively high-scoring match.
- Bohemians average 2.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
- Drogheda average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match.
- Last 5 H2H meetings averaged 2.6 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have shown consistent scoring ability, and H2H meetings often feature goals from both teams.
- Bohemians scored in 13 of last 15 matches.
- Drogheda scored in 10 of last 15 matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, and H2H history shows early scoring is common.
- Bohemians average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Drogheda average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- In last 5 H2H, first-half goals occurred in 4 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bohemians' strong second-half scoring could push the total over, but Drogheda's limited second-half production makes this a coin flip.
- Bohemians average 1.4 second-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Drogheda average 0.4 second-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Recent matches show second-half scoring for Bohemians, but Drogheda's second-half output is low.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, but the line is close to the combined average, making it a near coin flip.
- Bohemians average 5.7 corners, Drogheda 4.5 corners.
- Combined average corners per match: 10.2.
- Recent H2H corner counts: 9, 8, 3, null, null.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average is just below the line, but Bohemians' high shot volume could push it over.
- Bohemians average 5.1 shots on target, Drogheda 3.3.
- Combined average shots on target: 8.4.
- Recent matches show variability in shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average is slightly below the line, but match intensity could lead to more cards.
- Bohemians average 1.7 yellow cards, Drogheda 1.6.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.3.
- Recent H2H meetings have seen moderate card counts.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 75% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Bohemians have been inconsistent in over 9.5 corners projections

Bohemians have fulfilled 3 of 6 over 9.5 corners predictions, a 50% success rate. The average estimated probability was 58.3%, so expected fulfilments were 3.5, indicating slight underperformance. Their current probability of 50% is below the historical range of 55-60%, suggesting lower confidence than past projections.

Recent evidence for Bohemians6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

3 Jul·Premier Division