Waterford1Dundalk1

HT 1–1Fri 11 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 40%–60%ShotsShots 17–10On targetOn target 8–2CornersCorners 9–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 23:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Waterford or Draw at 1.50 is the top value bet, with a +5 point edge over the market.

Avoid Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes, as the odds overstate the likelihood of a high-scoring game given Dundalk's fatigue and possible missing forward.

Context

Waterford sit 8th in the Premier Division with 32 points from 29 matches.
Their recent league run includes a 3-1 home win over Bohemians on 9 August and a 2-0 away win at St Patrick's Athletic on 28 August. This form suggests they can compete with Dundalk, though their overall home record is modest with four wins and seven draws in 14 games.
- Waterford beat Bohemians 3-1 at home on 2026-08-09.
- Waterford won 2-0 away at St Patrick's Athletic on 2026-08-28.
- Waterford drew 0-0 away at Sligo Rovers on 2026-08-21.
Dundalk attacker D. Mullen has not appeared in the last five available team lists, with C. Dillon starting in his place each time.
His unresolved availability leaves Dundalk's central-forward selection uncertain. If Mullen remains out, Dillon is the established replacement, but no new update confirms either way for this match.
- Derry City's 4 September opposition preview reported that Mullen was out after an injury suffered in Dundalk's win over Castlebar Celtic.
- The Dundalk team list published after the 6 September Cup tie did not include D. Mullen among the starters or substitutes.
- D. Mullen started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- C. Dillon started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when D. Mullen did not start.
To watchSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 23:07 · Europe/BucharestDerry City FC: Eye on the Opposition — Dundalkwww.derrycityfc.net · 4 Sep 2026The Irish Times: Derry City brush aside Dundalk challenge to book place in FAI Cup semi-finalswww.irishtimes.com · 6 Sep 2026
Dundalk are 4th in the table with 40 points, but their away form has been inconsistent.
They have conceded 27 goals in 15 away games, an average of 1.8 per match. Recent away results include a 3-2 win at Drogheda United on 28 August and a 3-2 loss at Shamrock Rovers on 7 August. This suggests they may find it hard to keep a clean sheet at Waterford.
- Dundalk's away record: 4 wins, 7 draws, 4 losses in 15 matches.
- Dundalk lost 3-2 away at Shamrock Rovers on 2026-08-07.
- Dundalk won 3-2 away at Drogheda United on 2026-08-28.
Dundalk lost 4-2 at Derry City in the FAI Cup quarter-final on 6 September.
A second away match inside six days reduces recovery and preparation time, which can affect selection management and defensive organisation. The heavy defeat also shows recent defensive vulnerability, but it does not guarantee a repeat against Waterford.
- Derry City beat Dundalk 4-2 in the FAI Cup quarter-final on 6 September.
- Dundalk manager Ciarán Kilduff made a triple substitution in the second half while chasing the tie.
- Dundalk's late goal was scored by Leonardo Gaxha after Derry had already established a four-goal lead.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 23:07 · Europe/BucharestThe Irish Times: Derry City brush aside Dundalk challenge to book place in FAI Cup semi-finalswww.irishtimes.com · 6 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Waterford or Draw

1.35fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Waterford's first-half home record is solid (40% lead, 40% draw) and Dundalk's first-half away form is mixed, but the odds are slightly short relative to our estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records and the H2H pattern strongly supports goals at both ends.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Waterford's strong recent home form and Dundalk's inconsistent away record give the hosts a slight edge, supported by the latest H2H result.
- Waterford home record: 4W-7D-3L, 19 goals for, 16 against in 14 home league matches.
- Waterford last 5 league form: W-D-W-W-D (unbeaten in 5).
- Dundalk away record: 4W-7D-4L, 23 goals for, 27 against in 15 away league matches.
- H2H last meeting: Waterford won 3-2 away at Dundalk on 26 June 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostWaterfordEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Waterford's solid home form and Dundalk's mixed away results make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Waterford home record: 4W-7D-3L, 19 goals for, 16 against in 14 home league matches.
- Waterford last 5 league form: W-D-W-W-D (unbeaten in 5).
- Dundalk away record: 4W-7D-4L, 23 goals for, 27 against in 15 away league matches.
- H2H last meeting: Waterford won 3-2 away at Dundalk on 26 June 2026.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonWaterford or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first-half scoring rates are close, and the H2H shows a mix of outcomes, making a draw at the break plausible.
- Waterford led at half-time in 40% of recent matches, trailed in 20%, drew in 40%.
- Dundalk led at half-time in 47% of recent matches, trailed in 33%, drew in 20%.
- H2H last 5 meetings half-time results: 1 draw, 2 away leads, 2 home leads.
- Waterford average 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.5 against; Dundalk average 1.1 for and 0.8 against.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Waterford's slightly better second-half defensive record and recent H2H edge give them a marginal advantage after the break.
- Waterford average 1.1 second-half goals for and 0.5 against in recent matches.
- Dundalk average 1.0 second-half goals for and 0.8 against in recent matches.
- H2H last 5 meetings second-half results: Waterford won 2, Dundalk won 1, 2 draws.
- Waterford have scored in the second half in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostWaterfordEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Waterford win is a plausible sequence given their second-half strength and recent comeback ability.
- Waterford drew at half-time in 40% of recent matches.
- Waterford won 4 of their last 5 league matches overall.
- Dundalk drew at half-time in 20% of recent matches.
- H2H last meeting: Waterford won 3-2 after trailing 1-2 at half-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/WaterfordEstimated chance18%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown consistent dominance across both halves, and the H2H pattern shows no team winning both halves.
- Waterford led at half-time in only 40% of recent matches.
- Dundalk led at half-time in 47% of recent matches.
- H2H last 5 meetings: no team won both halves.
- Both teams have similar first-half scoring rates.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Waterford's strong first-half home record and Dundalk's mixed first-half away form make a home lead or draw at the break likely.
- Waterford led at half-time in 40% of recent matches, drew in 40%, trailed in 20%.
- Dundalk led at half-time in 47% of recent matches, drew in 20%, trailed in 33%.
- H2H last 5 meetings half-time results: Waterford led 2, drew 1, trailed 2.
- Waterford average 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.5 against.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonWaterford or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
High-scoring H2H history and Dundalk's leaky away defense point to goals, with both teams likely to score.
- Waterford home league matches average 2.5 total goals (19 for, 16 against in 14).
- Dundalk away league matches average 3.3 total goals (23 for, 27 against in 15).
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3, 6, 5, 3, 2 goals (average 3.8).
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and the H2H pattern strongly supports goals at both ends.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- Waterford home league matches: 19 goals for, 16 against in 14 (both teams scored in 9 of 14).
- Dundalk away league matches: 23 goals for, 27 against in 15 (both teams scored in 10 of 15).
- Waterford average 1.9 goals per match overall; Dundalk average 2.1 goals per match overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, and the H2H first-half average is just above the line, but the margin is thin.
- Waterford average 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.5 against in recent matches.
- Dundalk average 1.1 first-half goals for and 0.8 against in recent matches.
- H2H last 5 meetings first-half goals: 1, 3, 2, 1, 1 (average 1.6).
- Dundalk led at half-time in 47% of recent matches; Waterford in 40%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H second-half scoring average is well above the line, and both teams maintain attacking output after the break.
- Waterford average 1.1 second-half goals for and 0.5 against in recent matches.
- Dundalk average 1.0 second-half goals for and 0.8 against in recent matches.
- H2H last 5 meetings second-half goals: 2, 3, 3, 2, 1 (average 2.2).
- Both teams have scored in the second half in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H first-half scoring pattern and Waterford's solid first-half defense make it unlikely both teams score before the break.
- Waterford average 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.5 against.
- Dundalk average 1.1 first-half goals for and 0.8 against.
- H2H last 5 meetings first-half: both teams scored in only 1 of 5.
- Waterford kept a first-half clean sheet in 60% of recent matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance60%