Bohemians5Derry City3

HT 0–1Fri 21 Aug 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 16–7On targetOn target 7–5CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Aug 2026, 23:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Bohemians’ strong home form and Derry’s poor away record make the home double chance likely, but at 1.25 there is no value.

The best betting angles are Over 2.5 goals (edge +2.6pts) and Both Teams to Score (edge +0.9pts), while the match winner and first-half goals markets are overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Derry away record: 1W-7D-5L
- Only 8% away win rate
- Seven away draws show they often stay in games but fail to close them out
Bohemians home record: 4W-6D-3L
- 46% of home matches ended level
- Only four home wins in 13 attempts
12 June 2026: Derry City 4-1 Bohemians
- Derry scored four goals despite only 43% possession
- Bohemians had 57% possession but managed only two shots on target
Bohemians average 1.0 second-half goals scored
- Derry average 1.1 second-half goals scored
- All five recent H2H meetings had second-half goals

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bohemians or Draw

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Bohemians are unbeaten in 10 of 13 home matches and Derry have only one away win all season, making the home double chance a strong statistical play despite the negative edge.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Bohemians

1.95fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 51%

0.0ppshort

Bohemians' home form and Derry's away struggles support a home lean, but the market price implies a higher probability than our model, leaving no value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, with Bohemians particularly strong early at home.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bohemians' stronger home form and Derry's poor away record, combined with Bohemians' recent winning momentum, give them the edge despite the mixed H2H.
- Bohemians home record: 4W-6D-3L, 17 goals for, 15 against in 13 home matches
- Bohemians overall form: LDWWW in last 5, 12W-8D-7L overall
- Derry City away record: 1W-7D-5L, 12 goals for, 16 against in 13 away matches
- H2H last 5: Bohemians 1W, Derry 2W, 2D; but Bohemians won the most recent home fixture 1-0 in Feb 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBohemiansEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Derry's away struggles and Bohemians' solid home form make a Bohemians win or draw highly likely.
- Bohemians home record: 4W-6D-3L (77% unbeaten at home)
- Derry City away record: 1W-7D-5L (only 1 away win all season)
- H2H at Bohemians: Bohemians won 1-0 in Feb 2026, drew 1-1 in May 2026
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBohemians or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bohemians' stronger first-half scoring at home gives them a slight edge, but Derry's resilience makes this a low-confidence pick.
- Bohemians led at half-time in 40% of matches overall
- Derry City trailed at half-time in 40% of matches overall
- Bohemians average 0.7 first-half goals at home vs Derry's 0.4 away
- H2H last 5: Bohemians led at half-time in 2 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBohemiansEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A Bohemians half-time/full-time double is possible but not strongly supported by the data.
- Bohemians have won both halves in only 2 of 13 home matches
- Derry City have lost both halves in 3 of 13 away matches
- H2H last 5: Bohemians led at half-time and won full-time only once (Feb 2026)
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostBohemians/BohemiansEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and recent H2H meetings have often produced goals, supporting over 2.5.
- Bohemians average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match overall
- Derry City average 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match overall
- H2H last 5: 4-1, 1-1, 1-0, 4-3, 1-1 (3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals)
- Bohemians home matches average 2.46 total goals; Derry away matches average 2.15 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have consistent scoring records and the H2H shows frequent goals at both ends.
- Bohemians have scored in 11 of 13 home matches this season
- Derry City have scored in 9 of 13 away matches this season
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5 meetings
- Both teams average over 1.3 goals per game overall
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, with Bohemians particularly strong early at home.
- Bohemians average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded
- Derry City average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded
- H2H last 5: first-half goals in 4 of 5 meetings
- Bohemians led at half-time in 40% of matches; Derry trailed at half-time in 40%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as both teams push for results, especially with Derry needing points.
- Bohemians average 1.0 second-half goals scored (total 1.7 minus 0.7 first-half)
- Derry City average 1.1 second-half goals scored (total 1.5 minus 0.4 first-half)
- H2H last 5: second-half goals in all 5 meetings
- Both teams concede more in second half: Bohemians 0.7, Derry 0.7
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate and concede corners at a high rate, and their meetings often exceed 9.5 corners.
- Bohemians average 5.6 corners per match overall, Derry City average 5.6
- Bohemians home matches average 5.8 corners for, 4.5 against (total 10.3)
- Derry away matches average 5.2 corners for, 5.5 against (total 10.7)
- H2H last 5: corner totals 9, 14, 8, 9, 7 (average 9.4)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages and H2H history suggest a moderately high card count, though not extreme.
- Bohemians average 2.2 yellow cards per match, Derry City average 2.4
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.6 per match
- H2H last 5: total cards 5, 5, 3, 4, 5 (average 4.4)
- Referee tendencies unknown, but both teams are disciplined enough to avoid excessive cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 51% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Bohemians' Over 2.5 goals projections have been inconsistent

Bohemians' Over 2.5 goals projections have been fulfilled in 4 of 7 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 58.6%, with an expected 4.1 fulfilled predictions, so the actual 4 is close to expectation. However, home matches have been more reliable, with 3 of 4 fulfilled, while away matches have only 1 of 3 fulfilled.

Recent evidence for Bohemians7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·UEFA Europa Conference League