Waterford3Bohemians1

HT 3–0Sun 9 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 30%–70%ShotsShots 16–14On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 3–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Aug 2026, 23:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Bohemians' strong away form and H2H dominance make them favorites, but the odds are tight.

The top actionable insight is backing over 4.5 cards at 1.80, which offers a +4.4% edge based on consistent card counts in both teams' matches.

Context

Waterford's official site described the August 2 win over Shelbourne as boosting their Premier Division survival hopes.
- The club added midfield and defensive reinforcements in the summer window to strengthen the squad for the run-in.
Bohemians' away record: 8 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, with 24 goals scored and 13 conceded.
- They have won 4 of their last 5 league matches, including a 3-0 away win at Shelbourne.
Waterford's home record: 3 wins, 7 draws, 3 losses, with a negative goal difference.
- They have failed to win 10 of their 13 home matches, often dropping points from winning positions.
Last three league H2H results: 1-1, 0-1, 2-1, all with under 2.5 goals.
- Bohemians won 1-0 at Waterford in March 2026, controlling the game with 54% possession.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Bohemians

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Waterford have won only 3 of 13 home matches this season, while Bohemians have lost only 3 of 13 away, making Draw or Bohemians a high-probability outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bohemians' strong away form and H2H dominance over Waterford, combined with Waterford's weak home record, make an away win the most likely outcome despite Waterford's survival motivation.
- Bohemians are unbeaten in the last 3 H2H meetings (2 wins, 1 draw), including a 1-0 away win at Waterford in March 2026.
- Bohemians have the best away record in the league: 8 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 13 away matches, with 24 goals scored and 13 conceded.
- Waterford's home record is poor: only 3 wins in 13 home games, with 7 draws and 3 losses, and a negative goal difference at home (-13 overall).
- Bohemians' recent form (last 5 league matches): 4 wins, 1 draw, including a 2-0 away win at Drogheda and a 3-0 away win at Shelbourne.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBohemiansEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Waterford's inability to win at home (only 23% win rate) and Bohemians' strong away form (62% win rate) strongly support a double chance for Bohemians or draw.
- Waterford have won only 3 of 13 home matches this season, with 10 of 13 home games ending in a draw or loss.
- Bohemians have lost only 3 of 13 away matches, with 10 of 13 away games ending in a win or draw.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Waterford have won only once, with Bohemians winning 3 and 1 draw.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or BohemiansEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to be level at the break, with Waterford often starting cautiously at home and Bohemians not always taking early leads away, suggesting a draw at halftime is plausible.
- Waterford have been drawing at halftime in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Bohemians have been drawing at halftime in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 matches were level at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bohemians' stronger overall quality and ability to finish games strongly on the road give them an edge in the second half, though the evidence is not overwhelming.
- Bohemians have won the second half in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Waterford have lost the second half in 2 of their last 5 home matches, with 2 draws.
- Bohemians have a superior goal difference in the second half of away matches (+6) compared to Waterford's second-half home goal difference (-2).
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonBohemiansEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Bohemians win is a plausible scenario given Waterford's tendency to start slowly at home and Bohemians' strong second-half performances away, but the specific combination is not highly frequent.
- Waterford have drawn at halftime in 7 of 13 home matches, and Bohemians have won 8 of 13 away matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 2 matches were level at halftime with Bohemians winning at full time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/BohemiansEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are in good scoring form, and Waterford's home games tend to be high-scoring, while Bohemians' away matches also frequently exceed 2.5 goals, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Waterford's last 5 home matches have averaged 3.2 total goals, with 4 of 5 seeing over 2.5 goals.
- Bohemians' away matches average 2.85 total goals, with 8 of 13 away games having over 2.5 goals.
- Waterford have scored in 10 of their last 11 league matches, while Bohemians have scored in 11 of their last 12 league matches.
- The last 5 H2H meetings have averaged 2.8 goals, with 3 of 5 seeing over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are consistently finding the net, and with Waterford's defensive vulnerabilities (47 goals conceded in 26 games) and Bohemians' attacking strength, both teams scoring is a strong possibility.
- Waterford have scored in 10 of their last 11 league matches, and Bohemians have scored in 11 of their last 12 league matches.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Waterford's last 5 home matches, and in 7 of Bohemians' 13 away matches this season.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Waterford's consistent scoring at home and Bohemians' tendency to concede on the road make it unlikely that Bohemians will keep a clean sheet.
- Waterford have failed to score in only 1 of their last 11 league matches.
- Bohemians have kept only 3 clean sheets in 13 away matches this season.
- Waterford have scored in 10 of 13 home matches this season.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonWaterford to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see early goals, with Waterford's home games and Bohemians' away games frequently having first-half scoring, making over 0.5 first-half goals highly probable.
- Waterford's last 5 home matches have seen a first-half goal in 4 of 5, with an average of 1.2 first-half goals.
- Bohemians' away matches have seen a first-half goal in 10 of 13 games, with an average of 1.0 first-half goals.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 matches had a goal in the first half.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to generate a high number of corners in their respective home and away matches, and recent H2H meetings have also seen elevated corner counts, supporting over 9.5 corners.
- Waterford's home matches average 10.2 total corners, with 7 of 13 home games having over 9.5 corners.
- Bohemians' away matches average 9.8 total corners, with 6 of 13 away games having over 9.5 corners.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 matches had over 9.5 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a moderate disciplinary record, and their matches tend to see a combined card count exceeding 4.5, especially in Waterford's home games where cards are more frequent.
- Waterford's home matches average 5.2 total cards, with 8 of 13 home games having over 4.5 cards.
- Bohemians' away matches average 4.8 total cards, with 7 of 13 away games having over 4.5 cards.
- Waterford average 2.5 yellow cards per game overall, and Bohemians average 2.1 yellow cards per game.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Bohemians lead at half-time in only 40% of matches, and Waterford's first-half record at home is mixed, making the 2.20 odds unattractive.

Prediction history

Bohemians have been moderately reliable when projected to win

Bohemians have fulfilled 5 of 8 win predictions. The average estimated probability was 52.4%, with an expected 4.2 wins, so they slightly outperformed expectations. When they missed, it was mostly away from home, with 2 losses and 1 draw, and no wins.

Recent evidence for Bohemians8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·UEFA Europa Conference League