Premier DivisionFull time

Predictions graded

Dundalk2Shelbourne3

HT 1–1Fri 18 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions6–746%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 14–16On targetOn target 3–5CornersCorners 1–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 07:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Dundalk are marginal favourites at home, but the market overprices them: the 2.20 home win implies 45% versus a 38% model estimate.

Goals markets also offer negative value, with Over 2.5 and BTTS both priced above the model's probabilities. Best approach is to avoid these markets and wait for team news on Dundalk's fitness doubts and Shelbourne's captain Barrett.

Context

Shelbourne are 7th in the Premier Division with 36 points from 30 matches.
They are only two points above the relegation play-off place, currently held by Drogheda United. A loss here could drag them closer to that danger zone, so they have a clear reason to chase a result.
- Shelbourne are 7th with 36 points from 30 matches.
- Drogheda United in 9th have 34 points, only two fewer.
- The relegation play-off spot is 9th place.
Dundalk's manager Ciarán Kilduff reported a demanding Friday–Monday–Friday schedule and said two players required late fitness checks.
The unresolved checks could force rotation in Dundalk's defensive or midfield setup after the short turnaround. Until the team is named, the exact impact on availability remains uncertain.
- Dundalk’s official preview placed St Patrick’s Athletic on Monday 14 September and Shelbourne at Oriel Park on Friday 18 September.
- Ciarán Kilduff said the schedule had been demanding and that the group had picked up a few knocks.
- Kilduff said two players needed late fitness checks.
To watchSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 07:03 · Europe/BucharestDundalk FC: Preview: Dundalk FC v St Patrick's Athleticwww.dundalkfc.com · 14 Sep 2026Irish Examiner: St Pat's close on summit as Dundalk eye Europewww.irishexaminer.com · 14 Sep 2026
Dundalk are 4th in the Premier Division with 41 points.
Their last five league results are L, D, W, L, L. The most recent was a 4-0 home loss to St Patrick's Athletic on 14 September. That heavy defeat suggests defensive problems that Shelbourne could try to exploit.
- Dundalk lost 0-4 at home to St Patrick's Athletic on 14 September 2026.
- They drew 1-1 away to Waterford on 11 September 2026.
- They lost 2-4 away to Derry City in the FAI Cup on 6 September 2026.
Shelbourne defender P. Barrett has started none of the five recent team fixtures with available lineups and was omitted from the squad at Galway United.
Head coach John Russell described Barrett's absence as a selection decision rather than an injury and gave no guarantee of a return. His unresolved status could alter Shelbourne's defensive selection and organisation until the match squad is confirmed.
- Russell said P. Barrett was not injured after he was omitted from Shelbourne’s squad at Galway United.
- The same report noted that P. Barrett had also missed the Conference League second leg against Ajax.
- Russell gave no guarantee that P. Barrett would return to his plans for the rest of the season.
- P. Barrett started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 07:03 · Europe/BucharestRTÉ Sport: Russell offers no guarantees Barrett will return to foldwww.rte.ie · 3 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Dundalk

2.20fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 45.5%

0.0ppshort

Dundalk's home record is mediocre (6W-3D-6L) and Shelbourne are solid away (5W-7D-2L), so the market's 45% implied probability is actually higher than our 38% estimate.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Dundalk or Draw

1.38fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 72.5%

−4.5ppshort

The market prices Dundalk or Draw at 72% implied, but our estimate is only 68%, so there is no value despite the predictor's medium confidence.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average over 3.5 combined goals per match and H2H history supports scoring, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams score and concede regularly, but the odds are shorter than our probability estimate, leaving no value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Combined first-half goal average is 1.7, but the odds are extremely short and offer negative value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's home advantage and slightly better recent form give them a narrow edge, but Shelbourne's solid away record keeps the match competitive.
- Dundalk home record: 6W-3D-6L, 23 goals for, 22 against in 15 home matches.
- Shelbourne away record: 5W-7D-2L, 18 goals for, 15 against in 14 away matches.
- Dundalk last 5 league form: L-D-L-W-L (4 points from 15).
- Shelbourne last 5 league form: L-L-D-D-L (2 points from 15).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDundalkEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's home advantage and Shelbourne's poor recent form make a home win or draw the most likely outcome.
- Dundalk home record: 6W-3D-6L, 23 goals for, 22 against in 15 home matches.
- Shelbourne away record: 5W-7D-2L, 18 goals for, 15 against in 14 away matches.
- Dundalk last 5 league form: L-D-L-W-L (4 points from 15).
- Shelbourne last 5 league form: L-L-D-D-L (2 points from 15).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDundalk or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's stronger first-half scoring record gives them a slight edge, but the probability remains low due to Shelbourne's resilience.
- Dundalk led at half-time in 33% of matches, trailed in 40%.
- Shelbourne led at half-time in 20% of matches, trailed in 40%.
- Dundalk average 1.1 first-half goals scored vs Shelbourne's 0.6.
- Shelbourne average 0.9 first-half goals conceded vs Dundalk's 1.0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDundalkEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's home advantage and slightly better second-half scoring record give them a marginal edge, but the outcome is uncertain.
- Dundalk average 0.8 second-half goals scored vs Shelbourne's 0.7.
- Shelbourne average 0.8 second-half goals conceded vs Dundalk's 0.8.
- Dundalk home record: 6W-3D-6L, 23 goals for, 22 against in 15 home matches.
- Shelbourne away record: 5W-7D-2L, 18 goals for, 15 against in 14 away matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDundalkEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dundalk's home advantage and Shelbourne's poor recent form make a home win with a half-time lead possible, but the probability is low.
- Dundalk led at half-time in 33% of matches and won 33% of matches overall.
- Shelbourne trailed at half-time in 40% of matches and lost 33% of matches overall.
- Dundalk home record: 6W-3D-6L, 23 goals for, 22 against in 15 home matches.
- Shelbourne away record: 5W-7D-2L, 18 goals for, 15 against in 14 away matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDundalk/DundalkEstimated chance22%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches recently, and their head-to-head history supports over 2.5 goals.
- Dundalk average 1.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match in last 15.
- Shelbourne average 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match in last 15.
- Combined average goals per match: 3.7 (Dundalk 1.9 + Shelbourne 1.8).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 3, 3, 5, 3, 0 goals (average 2.8).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making both teams scoring likely.
- Dundalk have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches.
- Shelbourne have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Dundalk have conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Shelbourne have conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Dundalk average 1.1 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded in last 15.
- Shelbourne average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded in last 15.
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.7 per match.
- Dundalk led at half-time in 33% of matches, trailed in 40%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is common in matches involving these teams, with both sides likely to find the net after the break.
- Dundalk average 0.8 second-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded in last 15.
- Shelbourne average 0.7 second-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded in last 15.
- Combined second-half goal average: 1.5 per match.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 3, 3, 5, 3, 0 goals (average 2.8).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, making over 9.5 corners a coin-flip proposition.
- Dundalk average 5.8 corners per match, Shelbourne average 5.0 corners per match.
- Combined average corners per match: 10.8.
- Dundalk average 5.8 corners for and 3.9 opponent corners against.
- Shelbourne average 5.0 corners for and 5.0 opponent corners against.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce a high volume of shots, making over 24.5 shots a plausible outcome.
- Dundalk average 16.6 shots per match, Shelbourne average 12.5 shots per match.
- Combined average shots per match: 29.1.
- Dundalk average 16.6 shots for and 12.3 opponent shots against.
- Shelbourne average 12.5 shots for and 12.5 opponent shots against.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 24.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate shots on target numbers, making over 8.5 shots on target a borderline call.
- Dundalk average 3.9 shots on target per match, Shelbourne average 3.5 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target per match: 7.4.
- Dundalk average 3.9 shots on target for and 3.9 opponent shots on target against.
- Shelbourne average 3.5 shots on target for and 3.5 opponent shots on target against.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to accumulate cards, making over 4.5 cards a reasonable possibility.
- Dundalk average 2.3 yellow cards per match, Shelbourne average 3.0 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards per match: 5.3.
- Dundalk average 12.3 fouls per match, Shelbourne average 10.2 fouls per match.
- Combined average fouls per match: 22.5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 45% leaves no cushion vs our 38% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Dundalk has been moderately reliable on Over 9.5 corners

Dundalk has fulfilled 4 of 8 recent Over 9.5 corners predictions. The average estimated probability was 55.6%, with 4.5 expected fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment is close to expectation. Home and away splits are even at 2 of 4 each, and the current 50% probability sits within the historical range of 50–60%.

Recent evidence for Dundalk8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Premier Division