Premier DivisionFull time

Predictions graded

Galway United2Bohemians3

HT 1–0Fri 11 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 27%–73%ShotsShots 13–35On targetOn target 5–8CornersCorners 1–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 23:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Bohemians are slight favourites but fatigued from a 120-minute cup tie, and Galway's home draws make the match closer than the market suggests.

No value exists on the away win, double chance, or goal markets; the best approach is to avoid betting or look for alternative angles.

Context

Bohemians are third in the Premier Division with 50 points from 29 matches, six points behind leaders Shamrock Rovers.
Their recent league form is strong: a 3-0 home win over Sligo Rovers on 28 August and a 5-3 home win over Derry City on 21 August. They also beat Drogheda United 2-0 away on 3 July. This suggests they can create chances and score goals, but their away record is mixed with four losses in 14 away matches.
- Bohemians beat Sligo Rovers 3-0 at home on 28 August 2026.
- Bohemians beat Derry City 5-3 at home on 21 August 2026.
- Bohemians beat Drogheda United 2-0 away on 3 July 2026.
Bohemians' September 5 FAI Cup quarter-final against St Patrick's Athletic went to extra time and penalties, with five substitutions used.
The 120-minute match six days before kickoff adds recovery demands and can affect selection management for this away league fixture. The penalty shoot-out win after 18 kicks may also influence which players are rested or rotated.
- Bohemians drew 1-1 with St Patrick's Athletic after extra time in the September 5 FAI Cup quarter-final.
- Bohemians won the penalty shoot-out 8-7 after 18 kicks.
- Bohemians used five substitutions during the match.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 23:10 · Europe/BucharestBohemians hold their nerve in penalty shoot-out to secure FAI Cup semi-final spotwww.irishtimes.com · 5 Sep 2026
Galway United are seventh in the Premier Division with 34 points from 28 matches.
Their home record is 5 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses. Recent home results include a 1-1 draw with Shelbourne on 28 August and a 0-0 draw with Drogheda United on 7 August. They have not won at home since beating Sligo Rovers 3-2 on 11 July.
- Galway United drew 1-1 at home with Shelbourne on 28 August 2026.
- Galway United drew 0-0 at home with Drogheda United on 7 August 2026.
- Galway United's home record is 5 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses.
The teams drew 1-1 at Bohemians on 2 August 2026.
Bohemians controlled the ball and created many chances, but Galway United defended deep and scored with their only shot on target. This pattern may repeat, but Galway's home form is poor and Bohemians have improved since then.
- On 2 August 2026, Bohemians had 72% possession and 27 shots against Galway United, but the match ended 1-1.
- Galway United had only 4 shots and 1 shot on target in that match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Bohemians

1.79fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 56%

0.0ppshort

Bohemians' away record is strong, but the market price already reflects that, leaving no value at 1.80.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Bohemians

1.25fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

The double chance price is too short given Galway's home resilience and Bohemians' recent cup exertions.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' home/away goal averages and recent H2H suggest a decent chance of at least three goals, though not overwhelming.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.65fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high scoring and conceding rates in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score and concede in the first half, and H2H history supports early goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bohemians' stronger away form and higher league position give them the edge, though Galway's home resilience and H2H balance keep confidence medium.
- Bohemians away record: 8W 2D 4L, 25 goals scored, 16 conceded in 14 away matches.
- Galway home record: 5W 5D 4L, 20 goals scored, 21 conceded in 14 home matches.
- Bohemians recent form: WWLDW (last 5), Galway recent form: DWDDD (last 5).
- H2H last 5: Bohemians 2W, Galway 2W, 1D; Bohemians won last meeting 4-2 away.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBohemiansEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bohemians are less likely to lose given their away form and Galway's inconsistent home results, making Draw or Bohemians a solid double chance.
- Galway home win rate: 36% (5/14), Bohemians away win rate: 57% (8/14).
- Galway home draws: 5/14 (36%), Bohemians away draws: 2/14 (14%).
- Combined probability of Bohemians win or draw based on recent form and H2H.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or BohemiansEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first half profiles with a high draw rate, making a level first half plausible.
- Galway leading at half time: 33%, trailing: 20%, drawing: 47%.
- Bohemians leading at half time: 33%, trailing: 33%, drawing: 34%.
- H2H last 5: 3 matches were level at half time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A full draw is possible given Galway's home draw rate and Bohemians' occasional away draws, but not highly likely.
- Galway home draws: 5/14 (36%), Bohemians away draws: 2/14 (14%).
- H2H last 5: 1 draw (1-1).
- Both teams have moderate draw tendencies.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance15%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away goal averages and recent H2H suggest a decent chance of at least three goals, though not overwhelming.
- Galway home matches average 2.93 total goals (20 scored + 21 conceded in 14).
- Bohemians away matches average 2.93 total goals (25 scored + 16 conceded in 14).
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams average over 1.3 goals per game overall.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring and conceding rates in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- Galway scored in 11 of 14 home matches (79%), Bohemians scored in 12 of 14 away matches (86%).
- Galway conceded in 11 of 14 home matches (79%), Bohemians conceded in 10 of 14 away matches (71%).
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score and concede in the first half, and H2H history supports early goals.
- Galway first half goals per match: 0.7, first half goals conceded: 0.7.
- Bohemians first half goals per match: 0.8, first half goals conceded: 0.7.
- Combined first half goal average: 1.45 per match.
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 matches had a first half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring rates are moderate, but the line of 1.5 is a coin flip given the averages.
- Galway average second half goals: 0.8 (1.5 total - 0.7 first half), Bohemians average second half goals: 1.1 (1.9 total - 0.8 first half).
- Galway average second half goals conceded: 0.6 (1.3 - 0.7), Bohemians average second half goals conceded: 0.6 (1.3 - 0.7).
- Combined second half goal average: 1.55 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages hover around the 9.5 line, making this a near coin flip.
- Galway average corners per match: 4.6, opponent corners: 6.0 (total 10.6).
- Bohemians average corners per match: 5.4, opponent corners: 4.9 (total 10.3).
- Combined average total corners: 10.45.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is right at the line, so over/under is essentially even.
- Galway average shots on target per match: 3.8, opponent shots on target: 4.5 (total 8.3).
- Bohemians average shots on target per match: 4.5, opponent shots on target: 4.0 (total 8.5).
- Combined average shots on target: 8.4.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' card averages suggest a slight lean toward over 3.5 total cards.
- Galway average yellow cards per match: 2.0, opponent yellow cards: 2.1 (total 4.1).
- Bohemians average yellow cards per match: 1.9, opponent yellow cards: 2.1 (total 4.0).
- Combined average total cards: 4.05.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 56% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Bohemians have been moderately reliable when projected to win

Bohemians have fulfilled 5 of 8 recent win projections. Their average estimated probability was 52.4%, with an expected 4.2 wins, so they slightly outperformed expectations. Missed projections included one draw and two losses, with no subject wins in those misses.

Recent evidence for Bohemians8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·UEFA Europa Conference League