Gremio Novorizontino SP0Sao Bernardo FC SP0

HT 0–0Fri 25 Sept 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 17–6On targetOn target 3–1CornersCorners 9–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 12:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Third plays eleventh, with Novorizontino trying to climb back into the top two after losing at Ceara, against a Sao Bernardo side that has won its last two without conceding and has taken eight of 14 away league games.

The home win is the likelier result, but at 1.55 it asks more than this fixture justifies. The prices that hold up are Sao Bernardo to win or draw at 2.38, Sao Bernardo to win at 5.25 and under 2.5 goals at 1.95.

Context

Novorizontino begin round 30 third on 50 points, level with Juventude and two behind the joint leaders Vila Nova and Fortaleza, after a 2-1 loss at Ceara on 19 September ended their spell on top. A home fixture against a mid-table visitor is the cleanest route back into the automatic places, so the table position, rather than any tactical nuance, sets the stakes. The race is compressed, though: several clubs sit within a point of the leaders' pace, so one round can move Novorizontino in or out of the top two.
- After round 29, Novorizontino sit third on 50 points, level with Juventude and two points behind Vila Nova and Fortaleza, who share 51.
- Novorizontino led 1-0 at half-time away to Ceara on 19 September before losing 2-1, dropping off the top of the table.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 12:18 · Europe/Bucharest
Sao Bernardo won 2-0 at America-MG on 14 September and then 1-0 against Atletico-GO at the Primeiro de Maio on 19 September, a second successive victory that carried them clear of the relegation places. Two clean sheets in a row give the visitors a defensible base for a trip to the league's most productive attack. Both results came against sides below them in the table, though, so the run is encouraging rather than a demonstration that they can hold the leaders at the Jorgao.
- Sao Bernardo won 2-0 at America-MG on 14 September, with goals from Fabricio Daniel and Pedro Vitor.
- Sao Bernardo beat Atletico-GO 1-0 on 19 September, Felipe Garcia converting a 65th-minute penalty, a second successive victory that moved them clear of the relegation places.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 12:18 · Europe/Bucharest
The visitors' results travel far better than their mid-table league position suggests.
São Bernardo's away record carries a positive goal difference, which makes a trip to a top-three side less of a mismatch than 11th versus 3rd looks on paper. Their home form, 3 wins in 15, is the opposite picture, so the split is a specific away strength rather than a general one. This is a 29-match season sample, larger than any recent-form window used for this fixture.
- Standings as of 21 September 2026, after 29 Serie B rounds: São Bernardo away 14 played, 8 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses, 24 goals for, 14 against.
- Same table: São Bernardo home 15 played, 3 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses, 16 goals for, 17 against.
- Season total: 29 played, 11 wins, 8 draws, 10 losses, 41 points, 11th place.
Novorizontino have spent several Serie B seasons without reaching the top flight, and in 2023, 2024 and 2025 they were in contention before fading, finishing fifth, fifth and seventh. That record gives this home fixture a particular weight, because games like this against a mid-table visitor are the ones the club has been expected to win during past run-ins. It is background rather than a current playing condition, and the 2026 team is a different group under the same coach, so the history explains the pressure rather than the likely result.
- Novorizontino finished fifth in 2023 and 2024 and seventh in 2025, missing out on promotion in each season.
- Novorizontino are among the clubs with the most Serie B appearances never to have played in Serie A, and 2026 is another top-of-the-table campaign.
ReportedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 12:18 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino have the stronger home record and an unbeaten recent run in this fixture, and they have won four of their last six.
- Novorizontino home league record 8W-3D-3L (23 goals for, 14 against)
- Sao Bernardo away league record 8W-2D-4L
- Novorizontino unbeaten in the last four head-to-head meetings (2 wins, 2 draws)
- Novorizontino sit 3rd on 50 points; Sao Bernardo 11th on 41
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.38
The read
Both sides concede little before the break and level half-time scorelines have been common for Sao Bernardo.
- Sao Bernardo have conceded 0.625 first-half goals per away game
- Novorizontino concede 0.375 first-half goals at home
- Sao Bernardo were level at half-time in four of their last six
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates on both sides are low, so the after-break scoreline is often level.
- Both sides concede well under one second-half goal per relevant split
- Novorizontino's home split shows 0.75 second-half goals for
- Sao Bernardo's away split shows 0.875 second-half goals for
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino have the stronger home record and an unbeaten recent run in this fixture, and they have won four of their last six. Both teams draw roughly one game in four and the two most recent head-to-head meetings were level.
- Novorizontino home league record 8W-3D-3L (23 goals for, 14 against)
- Sao Bernardo away league record 8W-2D-4L
- Novorizontino have drawn 8 of 29 league games this season
- Sao Bernardo have drawn 8 of 29 league games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGremio Novorizontino SP or DrawEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino start games strongly at home while Sao Bernardo have scored only 0.5 first-half goals away. Both sides concede little before the break and level half-time scorelines have been common for Sao Bernardo.
- Novorizontino average 1.0 first-half goals for and 0.375 against at home
- Sao Bernardo average 0.5 first-half goals for away
- Sao Bernardo have conceded 0.625 first-half goals per away game
- Novorizontino concede 0.375 first-half goals at home
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonGremio Novorizontino SP or DrawEstimated chance79%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both defences have been solid at the relevant end of the pitch, which points to a game short of three goals.
- Novorizontino concede 0.75 goals per home game in this window
- Sao Bernardo have kept three clean sheets in their last six
- Novorizontino's away-split games average 2.5 goals against a 2.5 total line
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Novorizontino's recent games have seen both teams score every time and both sides carry a regular scorer.
- Both teams scored in each of Novorizontino's last six matches
- Novorizontino have scored in all six of their last six matches
- Sao Bernardo have scored in 5 of their 8 away matches in this window
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sao Bernardo's away defence has been hard to break down, making a single home goal or none the likelier outcome.
- Sao Bernardo concede 1.125 goals per away game in this window
- Sao Bernardo have kept three clean sheets in their last six
- Sao Bernardo allowed only 4.25 shots on target per away game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonGremio Novorizontino SP under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino give up very little at home, so Sao Bernardo are unlikely to score twice.
- Novorizontino concede 0.75 goals per home game in this window
- Novorizontino allow 1.75 shots on target per home game
- Sao Bernardo scored 1 or 0 in 4 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSao Bernardo FC SP under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Novorizontino score in the first half of most of their games, so a goal before the break is likely.
- Novorizontino average 1.0 first-half goals for in the 15-match window
- Novorizontino average 1.0 first-half goals for at home
- Novorizontino scored in the first half in five of their last six matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences tighten after the break, keeping the second-half total more often below two goals.
- Novorizontino concede 0.375 second-half goals at home
- Sao Bernardo concede 0.5 second-half goals away
- Novorizontino average 0.8 second-half goals for across the window
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sao Bernardo's away matches produce few corners and their recent totals have stayed in single figures.
- Sao Bernardo average 5.625 corners for and 5.125 against away
- Sao Bernardo's last six matches averaged 10.7 corners
- The two sides' combined season corner averages total about 12.4 per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 13.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot totals across both teams' split and recent data sit just below the line.
- Novorizontino's home split averages 28.1 total shots
- Sao Bernardo's last six matches averaged 28.2 total shots
- Sao Bernardo allow 16.1 shots per away game
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 29.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's home defence limits opposition shots on target, keeping the combined count low.
- Novorizontino allow 1.75 shots on target per home game
- Novorizontino's home split averages 7.875 total shots on target
- Sao Bernardo's last six matches averaged 8.2 shots on target in total
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's matches have consistently produced around four cards, mostly for the opposition.
- Novorizontino's matches average 4.27 cards including opposition bookings
- Novorizontino's last six matches averaged 4.3 cards
- Novorizontino's opponents average 2.6 yellow cards per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance51%

Prediction history

Gremio Novorizontino SP: 2/4 recent winner projections matched

2 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Gremio Novorizontino SP matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Gremio Novorizontino SP4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jul·Serie B