Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Ponte Preta0Gremio Novorizontino SP2

HT 0–1Mon 22 Jun 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–357%

Edges3–175%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Jun 2026, 17:39 · Europe/Bucharest

A low-scoring game is highly probable, with under 2.5 goals offering a strong 16.3-point edge (78% model vs.

61.7% implied). Under 9.5 corners also presents value at 2.05, with a 13-point edge. Avoid the away win at short odds and the both-teams-to-score 'No' market, where the edge is too thin given the risks.

Context

Ponte Preta officially announced Santana's departure on 26 May, citing results and family issues.
- The team has since played two matches, losing both, and sits 19th with only two wins in 13 games.
- No permanent replacement has been named, adding uncertainty to the home side's approach.
The club's 18 June training report confirmed all six players rejoined the squad after medical department stints.
- Careca and Tavinho add attacking options, while Oyama, Lora, and Brock reinforce the spine.
- Novorizontino are unbeaten in five league matches and sit 5th, with these returns boosting their push.
Ponte's council announced the meeting would solely address forming a SAF to avoid higher taxes from federal reform.
- The note stressed no investor proposal or asset sale was involved, but the timing coincides with a crucial relegation battle.
- Off-field structural changes can unsettle players and staff, especially with a new coach yet to be appointed.
Last three H2Hs: 0-1, 2-1, 1-0, all under 2.5 goals.
- Both teams failed to score in the two most recent encounters.
- Ponte Preta average 0.7 goals per game this season, while Novorizontino concede only 0.7 per away match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ponte's relegation form and coaching disruption contrast with Novorizontino's stable upper-table push and multiple player returns, giving the away side a clear edge.
- Ponte Preta form: LLDLL, 2 wins in 13, 19th place.
- Novorizontino form: DWDWD, 5th place, unbeaten in last 5.
- Ponte Preta home: 1 win in 7, -6 goal difference.
- Novorizontino away: 2 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss, +6 goal difference.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte's inability to win consistently (only 2 wins in 13) and Novorizontino's strong away form (only 1 loss in 7) make the away side avoiding defeat highly probable.
- Ponte Preta last 15: 2 wins, 2 draws, 11 losses.
- Novorizontino last 15: 5 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses.
- H2H last 5: Ponte 2 wins, Novorizontino 2 wins, 1 draw.
- Ponte Preta home: 1 win, 2 draws, 4 losses.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Gremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high first-half draw rates (Ponte 47%, Novorizontino 67%), and the H2H shows frequent level scores at the break, making a draw the most likely HT result.
- Ponte Preta last 15: led at HT in 13%, trailed in 40%, drawn in 47%.
- Novorizontino last 15: led at HT in 13%, trailed in 20%, drawn in 67%.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at HT.
- Ponte Preta home: 4 draws at HT in 7 games.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If the first half is drawn, Novorizontino's superior second-half performance and Ponte's tendency to fade (lost 7 of 9 when HT draw) support an away win in the second half.
- Novorizontino away: 4 draws at HT in 7, with 2 wins and 4 draws full-time.
- Ponte Preta home: 4 draws at HT in 7, but only 1 win full-time.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at HT, with Novorizontino winning 2 of those full-time.
- Ponte Preta last 15: lost 7 of 9 when drawing at HT.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Gremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance28%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Strong H2H low-scoring trend combined with Ponte's poor attack and Novorizontino's solid away defense makes under 2.5 highly likely.
- H2H: 15 of 18 meetings under 2.5 goals, last 3: 0-1, 2-1, 1-0.
- Ponte Preta last 15: avg 0.7 goals for, 1.7 against; 12 of 15 under 2.5.
- Novorizontino away: 5 of 7 under 2.5, conceding only 5 in 7 away games.
- Ponte Preta home: 5 of 7 under 2.5, scoring only 5 in 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte's scoring struggles (0.7 goals/game) and Novorizontino's away defensive record (5 conceded in 7) point to at least one side failing to score.
- H2H: both teams failed to score in last 2 meetings.
- Ponte Preta last 15: failed to score in 7 matches, including 3 of last 5.
- Novorizontino away: 4 clean sheets in 7 away games.
- Ponte Preta home: scored in only 4 of 7 home games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average only 0.5 first-half goals, and the H2H trend shows tight first halves, making under 1.5 first-half goals a strong play.
- Ponte Preta last 15: avg 0.5 first-half goals, 0.8 conceded; 12 of 15 under 1.5 FH goals.
- Novorizontino last 15: avg 0.5 first-half goals, 0.5 conceded; 13 of 15 under 1.5 FH goals.
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
- Ponte Preta home: 6 of 7 under 1.5 FH goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low-scoring pattern extends to second halves, with both teams rarely producing multiple goals after the break, supported by H2H and recent form.
- Ponte Preta last 15: 10 of 15 had under 1.5 second-half goals.
- Novorizontino last 15: 9 of 15 had under 1.5 second-half goals.
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 had under 1.5 second-half goals.
- Ponte Preta home: 5 of 7 under 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance68%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 5 corners per game, and the H2H trend shows low corner counts, making under 9.5 corners likely.
- Ponte Preta last 15: avg 5.7 corners, opponent 6.5; 10 of 15 under 9.5 total corners.
- Novorizontino last 15: avg 5.0 corners, opponent 4.7; 11 of 15 under 9.5 total corners.
- H2H last 5: total corners 7, 10, 9, 8, 5 (avg 7.8).
- Ponte Preta home: 5 of 7 under 9.5 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ponte's high card count (3.0 yellows/game) and the competitive nature of a relegation battle should push total cards over 4.5.
- Ponte Preta last 15: avg 3.0 yellow, 0.8 red; 11 of 15 over 4.5 cards.
- Novorizontino last 15: avg 2.2 yellow, 0 red; 8 of 15 over 4.5 cards.
- H2H last 5: card data unavailable, but both teams average 5+ cards combined in recent matches.
- Ponte Preta home: 6 of 7 over 4.5 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W0-1NovorizontinovPonte PretaJan 15, 2025PAU

L2-1NovorizontinovPonte PretaOct 1, 2024SER

W1-0Ponte PretavNovorizontinoJun 15, 2024SER

D1-1Ponte PretavNovorizontinoMar 3, 2024PAU

L2-0NovorizontinovPonte PretaOct 28, 2023SER

Ponte Preta: 2 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
19	Ponte Preta Relegation	13	2	2	9	10-25	8	LLDLL
5	Gremio Novorizontino SP Promotion Play-offs	13	5	6	2	20-13	21	DWDWD

13pt gap between teamsPonte Preta in relegation zone

Recent Form

Ponte Preta

L0-3JuventudeJun 14SER

L1-2CuiabaJun 9SER

D0-0Botafogo SPJun 1SER

L2-4CRBMay 24SER

L1-4LondrinaMay 18SER

L1-3Sport RecifeMay 9SER

L0-3São BernardoMay 3SER

W1-0America MineiroApr 24SER

W2-1AvaiApr 18SER

L0-1Vila NovaApr 11SER

L0-1Nautico RecifeApr 4SER

D1-1CearaApr 2SER

L1-2Athletic ClubMar 22SER

L0-1Atletico GoianienseMar 18COP

W1-0Guarany de BagéMar 11COP

Gremio Novorizontino SP

D2-2Nautico RecifeJun 14SER

W4-0GoiasJun 10SER

D1-1São BernardoMay 31SER

D2-2Chapecoense-scMay 27COP

W2-1CearaMay 23SER

L0-2Chapecoense-scMay 20COP

D0-0CuiabaMay 16SER

W1-0Botafogo SPMay 10SER

W2-1Volta RedondaMay 7COP

D3-3AvaiMay 3SER

L1-2AvaiApr 30COP

L0-1Sport RecifeApr 25SER

W2-1Athletic ClubApr 19SER

D1-1Operario-PRApr 15COP

W3-0America MineiroApr 12SER

Squad & Injuries

Ponte Preta

50 available

Attackers12

Midfielders15

Defenders20

Goalkeeper3

Gremio Novorizontino SP

55 available

Attackers16

Midfielders19

Defenders13

Goalkeeper7

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

Draw

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Draw or Gremio Novorizontino SP

Gremio Novorizontino SP

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Under 1.5

Ponte Preta

Ponte Preta at half-time / Ponte Preta at full-time

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Ponte Preta

Gremio Novorizontino SP

Squad & Injuries

Ponte Preta

Gremio Novorizontino SP