Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Sao Bernardo FC SP1Nautico PE1

HT 0–0Sun 23 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 15–10On targetOn target 3–2CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 04:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect a tight, low-scoring match with a high chance of a draw.

The only clear betting value is over 4.5 cards at 7.00, which our model rates at 60% probability versus the implied 14.3%. Avoid the double chance and first-half under 1.5 goals, as they are heavily overpriced.

Context

Sao Bernardo home record: 2W-5D-5L in 12 home matches (42% draws).
- Recent home matches include draws against Avai, Cuiaba, Sport Recife, Novorizontino, and America Mineiro.
- They have scored only 13 goals in 12 home games, averaging 1.08 goals per match.
Nautico away record: 3W-4D-5L in 12 away matches (33% draws).
- They have drawn away against Ponte Preta, Criciuma, and Novorizontino in recent matches.
- Nautico have scored 17 goals in 12 away games, averaging 1.42 goals per match.
Last 5 H2H: 3 draws, 1 away win each.
- The most recent draw was 1-1 in August 2025.
- The 2024 meeting also ended 1-1.
Sao Bernardo average 2.5 yellow cards per match, Nautico average 2.9.
- Nautico received 6 yellow cards in their last home match against Ceara.
- Sao Bernardo received 5 yellow cards in an away match against Criciuma.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

3.10fair 3.13

BetBugs 32% · Market 32.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high draw rates in their respective home/away splits and recent H2H shows frequent stalemates, making a draw the most likely single outcome.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Sao Bernardo FC SP or Draw

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Sao Bernardo's home unbeaten rate and Nautico's away struggles to win support the home side avoiding defeat.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.10fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 47.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams often go into half time level, with Sao Bernardo's high draw rate and Nautico's tendency to trail or draw.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.70fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Sao Bernardo's home games average only 2.25 total goals and both teams have moderate scoring rates, supporting a low-scoring match.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.33fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, with combined average well below 1.5 goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates in their respective home/away splits and recent H2H shows frequent stalemates, making a draw the most likely single outcome.
- Sao Bernardo home record: 2W-5D-5L in 12 home matches (42% draws)
- Nautico away record: 3W-4D-5L in 12 away matches (33% draws)
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws, 1 away win each
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sao Bernardo's home unbeaten rate and Nautico's away struggles to win support the home side avoiding defeat.
- Sao Bernardo home record: 2W-5D-5L (58% unbeaten at home)
- Nautico away record: 3W-4D-5L (58% not winning away)
- Sao Bernardo overall form: 8W-6D-8L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSao Bernardo FC SP or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into half time level, with Sao Bernardo's high draw rate and Nautico's tendency to trail or draw.
- Sao Bernardo leading at half time in 27% of matches, trailing in 20%
- Nautico leading at half time in 33%, trailing in 47%
- Both teams have high draw rates at half time (Sao Bernardo 53%, Nautico 20% but many draws)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half time and full time is plausible given the high draw tendencies, but specific HT/FT combinations are inherently low probability.
- Sao Bernardo home draws: 5 in 12 (42%)
- Nautico away draws: 4 in 12 (33%)
- H2H last 5: 3 draws
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and Sao Bernardo's home games tend to be low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Sao Bernardo home matches average 2.25 total goals (13 scored, 14 conceded in 12)
- Nautico away matches average 2.92 total goals (17 scored, 18 conceded in 12)
- Combined season averages: Sao Bernardo 1.3 goals for/against, Nautico 1.2 for/1.3 against
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high rates of scoring and conceding in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- Sao Bernardo scored in 10 of 12 home matches (83%)
- Nautico scored in 9 of 12 away matches (75%)
- Both teams conceded in most matches: Sao Bernardo home conceded in 10/12, Nautico away conceded in 10/12
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, with combined average well below 1.5 goals.
- Sao Bernardo first half goals: 0.7 for, 0.5 against per match
- Nautico first half goals: 0.5 for, 0.7 against per match
- Combined first half average: 1.2 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to see more goals as teams open up, but the average is still below 1.5, making this a low-confidence lean.
- Sao Bernardo second half goals: 0.6 for, 0.8 against per match (total 1.4)
- Nautico second half goals: 0.7 for, 0.6 against per match (total 1.3)
- Combined second half average: 1.35 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance48%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, with combined averages around 11, slightly favoring over 9.5.
- Sao Bernardo average corners: 5.1 for, opponent corners 5.9 (total ~11)
- Nautico average corners: 6.3 for, opponent corners 4.9 (total ~11.2)
- Combined average total corners: ~11
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high disciplinary records, with combined yellow card averages exceeding 4.5.
- Sao Bernardo average yellow cards: 2.5 per match
- Nautico average yellow cards: 2.9 per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 5.4
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 77% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Sao Bernardo FC SP has matched Over 4.5 cards in only 2 of 5 recent projections

Sao Bernardo FC SP has fulfilled 2 of 5 Over 4.5 cards predictions, a 40% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability was 60.6%, with an expected 3 fulfilled predictions, indicating underperformance relative to expectation. The current prediction of 60% sits within the historical range of 58-65%, but recent outcomes have fallen short more often than not.

Recent evidence for Sao Bernardo FC SP5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Serie B