Gremio Novorizontino SP0Juventude1

HT 0–0Sun 9 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 15–10On targetOn target 4–1CornersCorners 8–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Aug 2026, 00:18 · Europe/Bucharest

A low-scoring Série B promotion battle is likely, with under 2.5 goals and a goalless first half strongly supported by H2H trends and defensive stats.

The best value is first-half under 0.5 goals (+18pt edge), while markets like over 3.5 goals and first-half BTTS should be avoided due to poor pricing.

Context

Juventude lost 1-0 at home to Atlético-MG on 4 August, ending their Copa do Brasil run.
- The club's official site states the team now turns full attention to the Série B trip to Novorizontino.
- Juventude were in the automatic promotion places (2nd, 35 points) before the cup tie.
Gabriel Pires joined on a permanent deal on 30 July, and Luis Amarilla arrived on loan on 29 July.
- Both players were integrated into first-team training, and Amarilla appeared as a substitute against Atlético-MG.
- Juventude have scored only 7 goals in 9 away games this season, so the new signings could change their attacking output.
The four H2H results: 0-0, 0-2, 1-0, 1-0.
- Three of the four matches saw under 2.5 goals.
- The only meeting at Novorizontino's ground ended 1-0 to the home side.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown inconsistency in their respective home/away splits, and with promotion stakes high, a cautious approach could lead to a stalemate.
- Novorizontino home: 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses – not dominant.
- Juventude away: 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses – struggles on the road.
- H2H: 1 draw in 4 meetings, but the most recent league clash ended 0-0.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's home resilience and Juventude's poor away record make the home side avoiding defeat a strong probability.
- Novorizontino home: only 2 losses in 9 home games.
- Juventude away: only 2 wins in 9 away games.
- Novorizontino overall: 9 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses – solid form.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostGremio Novorizontino SP or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The low first-half scoring and balanced H2H record point to a high chance of the teams being level at half-time.
- Novorizontino: led at half-time in only 27% of matches.
- Juventude: led at half-time in 33% of matches.
- H2H: 3 of 4 meetings were level at the break.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams evenly matched and likely to cancel each other out, the second half could also end level, though a narrow win for either side is possible.
- Novorizontino: second-half performance is mixed, with no clear dominance.
- Juventude: similarly balanced second-half record.
- Overall: both teams have similar goal differences in the second half.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is a plausible outcome given the defensive strengths and lack of clear superiority, though not highly probable.
- H2H: 1 draw in 4 meetings, but the most recent league game was 0-0.
- Both teams have a high draw rate: Novorizontino 6 draws, Juventude 5 draws in 20 games.
- Low-scoring trends support a stalemate.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern strongly favors low-scoring games, and both teams' recent form and season-long stats indicate a tight, defensive contest, especially with Juventude's solid defensive record.
- H2H: all 4 recorded meetings had 2 goals or fewer, with 3 finishing under 2.5.
- Juventude away: only 7 goals scored in 9 away matches, averaging 0.78 goals per game.
- Novorizontino home: 14 goals in 9 home games (1.56 per game), but Juventude's away defense is strong (11 conceded in 9).
- Juventude overall: only 22 goals scored in 20 matches, with 12 conceded – a clear low-scoring profile.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juventude's defensive solidity, especially away from home, combined with a low-scoring H2H trend, makes it likely that at least one side will be shut out.
- Juventude away: kept clean sheets in 4 of 9 away matches, conceding only 11 goals.
- Novorizontino home: failed to score in 2 of 9 home games, and Juventude's overall defense is the best in the league (12 conceded in 20).
- H2H: in 3 of 4 meetings, at least one team failed to score.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, and the H2H history shows a pattern of goalless first halves, suggesting a cautious opening period.
- Novorizontino: first half goals average 0.7, with 27% leading at half-time.
- Juventude: first half goals average 0.5, with 33% leading at half-time.
- H2H: 3 of 4 meetings were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the low first-half scoring trends, goals are more likely to come in the second half as the game opens up, especially with promotion implications.
- Novorizontino: 1.6 goals per game overall, with many coming after the break.
- Juventude: 1.3 goals per game, but only 0.5 in the first half, indicating second-half scoring.
- Recent form: both teams have scored in the second half in most of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, and the expected cautious play could limit attacking width, keeping total corners under 10.
- Novorizontino: average 5 corners per game, conceding 5.6 opponent corners.
- Juventude: average 4.9 corners per game, conceding 4.3 opponent corners.
- Combined average: around 9.9 corners, but recent matches show lower totals.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The importance of the match could lead to more fouls and cards, pushing the total over 4.5, though the baseline is borderline.
- Novorizontino: average 2 yellow cards per game.
- Juventude: average 2 yellow cards per game.
- Combined average: 4 cards, but high-stakes promotion clash may increase discipline issues.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 21.1% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of ~15%; odds too short for a low-probability event.

Prediction history

Gremio Novorizontino SP has struggled to fulfil Under 2.5 goals predictions

In 8 matches, Under 2.5 goals was fulfilled only 3 times. The average estimated probability was 63.5%, expecting around 5 fulfilled predictions, but actual results fell short. Notably, at home only 1 of 3 predictions matched, while away it was 2 of 5.

Recent evidence for Gremio Novorizontino SP8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Serie B