Sao Bernardo FC SP1Londrina2

HT 1–1Thu 10 Sept 2026, 23:50 Predictions graded

Predictions2–1017%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 13–18On targetOn target 1–7CornersCorners 4–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 04:46 · Europe/Bucharest

São Bernardo are overpriced at 1.80 (implied 56%) given their weak home form and the model's 42% estimate.

Londrina's missing forward Gilberto and doubtful midfielder Lucas Marques further support a low-scoring game, but Under 2.5 goals offers no edge at 1.73. Best approach: avoid the home win and double chance, and consider live betting if the first half stays goalless.

Context

Londrina is 18th in Serie B with 22 points from 26 matches, sitting in the relegation zone.
Their away record is a major weakness: 2 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses in 13 away games, with 14 goals scored and 22 conceded. This suggests they struggle to control matches outside their home stadium. Sao Bernardo, despite their own home issues, will likely find opportunities against a team that has been consistently beaten on the road.
- Londrina away record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 9 losses in 13 matches.
- Londrina has conceded 22 goals away from home this season.
- Londrina's recent away form: lost to Ceara 1-2 on 2026-08-22, lost to Sport Recife 1-2 on 2026-08-14, lost to Goias 0-1 on 2026-08-10.
Sao Bernardo is 14th in Serie B with 35 points, comfortably mid-table but with a poor home record.
Their home record shows 2 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses in 13 matches, with 14 goals scored and 15 conceded. This indicates they often fail to dominate at home, which could give Londrina hope despite their own away struggles. The match may be more balanced than the table suggests.
- Sao Bernardo home record: 2 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses in 13 matches.
- Sao Bernardo has scored 14 goals and conceded 15 at home this season.
- Recent home results: lost to Botafogo SP 0-1 on 2026-08-14, drew with Nautico Recife 1-1 on 2026-08-23, lost to Ceara 3-4 on 2026-07-26.
Londrina has 22 points from 26 matches, with a goal difference of -8.
They are seven points behind the relegation line, which adds pressure to every remaining match. This urgency may lead to a more attacking approach, but it could also expose them defensively. Sao Bernardo, with less at stake, might exploit that desperation.
- Londrina rank 18th with 22 points, 7 points behind 17th-placed Avai (29 points).
- Londrina's recent form: LDLDL in their last five matches.
- Londrina has lost 14 of 26 matches this season.
Londrina forward Gilberto started the 6 September league match against Operário.
His suspension removes a recent starting option from Londrina's attack for the trip to São Bernardo. The club must adjust its forward selection without a like-for-like replacement named in the available evidence.
- Folha de Londrina reported that Gilberto received a yellow card during the first-half altercation with Operário and will be suspended for the 10 September match at São Bernardo.
- Data F.C.'s current match page lists Gilberto as suspended against São Bernardo for three yellow cards.
ReportedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 04:44 · Europe/BucharestFolha de Londrina — Londrina lose to Operáriowww.folhadelondrina.com.br · 6 Sep 2026Data F.C. — São Bernardo vs Londrina previewwww.datafc.com.br · 8 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Sao Bernardo FC SP

1.79fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 56%

0.0ppshort

Despite the predictor's 42% estimate, the market's 56% implied probability overvalues the home side given their weak home form.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sao Bernardo FC SP or Draw

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

The market's 82% implied probability leaves no value against the predictor's 70% estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.36fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, but the odds are heavily juiced, leaving no value despite the directional lean.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sao Bernardo's superior away form and recent H2H win, combined with Londrina's poor away record, give the hosts a moderate edge despite their own weak home form.
- Sao Bernardo home record: 2W-6D-5L, 14 goals for, 15 against in 13 home matches
- Londrina away record: 2W-2D-9L, 14 goals for, 22 against in 13 away matches
- Last 5 H2H: Sao Bernardo 1W, 3D, 1L; most recent meeting Sao Bernardo won 3-1 away
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSao Bernardo FC SPEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sao Bernardo's home unbeaten rate and Londrina's poor away form support a high probability that the hosts avoid defeat.
- Sao Bernardo home record: 2W-6D-5L (62% unbeaten at home)
- Londrina away record: 2W-2D-9L (31% unbeaten away)
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 ended in draw or Sao Bernardo win
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSao Bernardo FC SP or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into half-time level, and Londrina's tendency to trail is offset by Sao Bernardo's low first-half scoring.
- Sao Bernardo leading at half time: 27% of matches
- Londrina trailing at half time: 47% of matches
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sao Bernardo's slightly better second-half performance and home advantage give them a small edge.
- Sao Bernardo second half goal difference: +0.2 per game
- Londrina second half goal difference: -0.1 per game
- Sao Bernardo home second half record: 5W-4D-4L
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostSao Bernardo FC SPEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Sao Bernardo win is a plausible but low-probability sequence given their home struggles.
- Sao Bernardo home HT draw rate: 46% (6 of 13)
- Sao Bernardo home FT win rate: 15% (2 of 13)
- Londrina away HT draw rate: 38% (5 of 13)
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Sao Bernardo FC SPEstimated chance18%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring rates are modest, and Sao Bernardo's home games tend to be low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Sao Bernardo home matches average 2.23 total goals (14 for, 15 against in 13)
- Londrina away matches average 2.77 total goals (14 for, 22 against in 13)
- Combined recent form: Sao Bernardo last 5 home games had 1,2,1,1,0 goals; Londrina last 5 away had 2,0,2,0,2
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina's away scoring struggles and Sao Bernardo's decent home defensive record make a clean sheet for either side plausible.
- Sao Bernardo home clean sheets: 4 in 13 (31%)
- Londrina away failed to score: 5 in 13 (38%)
- Londrina away goals per game: 1.08; Sao Bernardo home conceded per game: 1.15
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Sao Bernardo first half goals per game: 0.6, conceded 0.5
- Londrina first half goals per game: 0.5, conceded 0.8
- Combined first half average: 1.2 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slightly higher scoring in second halves for both teams, but the edge is marginal.
- Sao Bernardo second half goals per game: 0.7 (1.3 total - 0.6 first half)
- Londrina second half goals per game: 0.7 (1.2 total - 0.5 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.4 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average suggests a near coin-flip for over 9.5.
- Sao Bernardo average corners per game: 5.7, opponent corners: 5.5
- Londrina average corners per game: 5.1, opponent corners: 5.9
- Combined average corners: 11.2
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average is exactly at the line, making this a marginal call.
- Sao Bernardo average shots on target per game: 4.7, opponent: 4.3
- Londrina average shots on target per game: 3.8, opponent: 4.1
- Combined average shots on target: 8.5
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate disciplinary records, and the combined average is close to the line.
- Sao Bernardo average yellow cards per game: 2.1, opponent: 2.0
- Londrina average yellow cards per game: 2.2, opponent: 2.4
- Combined average cards: 4.3
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 56% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Sao Bernardo FC SP has struggled to convert win projections

Sao Bernardo FC SP has fulfilled 1 of 4 win projections. The average estimated probability was 49.3%, but only one match ended in a win, with two draws and one loss among the misses. At home, none of the three projections were fulfilled, while the single away projection succeeded.

Recent evidence for Sao Bernardo FC SP4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

18 Jul·Serie B