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Predictions graded

Criciuma1Sao Bernardo FC SP0

HT 1–0Sat 27 Jun 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–357%

Edges3–175%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Jun 2026, 16:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Criciúma’s home solidity meets São Bernardo’s perfect away record in a low-scoring promotion clash.

The best value is the first-half draw at 2.05 (6-point edge), but avoid the home win and double chance markets, which heavily overrate Criciúma. The suspiciously high 2.50 odds on under 0.5 first-half goals suggest caution despite strong statistical support.

Context

Criciúma's official site confirmed the América-MG away match on 23 June and the São Bernardo home match on 27 June.
- The club posted about final training before traveling for the América trip on 21 June, confirming the tight schedule.
- São Bernardo last played on 21 June at home, giving them two extra rest days.
São Bernardo away record: W5 D1 L0, 13 goals scored, 5 conceded.
- They have scored in all six away matches, averaging 2.17 goals per away game.
- Criciúma have conceded in four of six home games, though only four total goals.
The 2026 Série B regulation changed access: top two promoted directly, 3rd–6th to playoffs.
- As of 23 June, São Bernardo were 2nd and Criciúma 8th, per Criciúma's official site.
- Both teams need points for promotion or playoff positioning, raising the stakes.
Criciúma home record: W3 D3 L0, 8 goals scored, 4 conceded.
- They have drawn three of their last five home matches.
- Possession averages 52.4% at home, but they only score 1.33 goals per home game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's strong home form and São Bernardo's perfect away record create a tight contest, but Criciuma's home unbeaten streak and slight possession edge give them a narrow advantage, supported by motivation from promotion stakes.
- Criciuma unbeaten at home this season (W3 D3 L0, 8GF 4GA in 6 home matches)
- São Bernardo unbeaten away (W5 D1 L0, 13GF 5GA in 6 away matches)
- Criciuma last 5 form: DWWDD (7GF 4GA), São Bernardo last 5: LDWDW (5GF 5GA)
- Criciuma home possession avg 52.4%, shots 13.1 per game; São Bernardo away possession 47.3%, shots 10.2
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCriciumaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's solid home defensive record (0.67 goals conceded per home game) and unbeaten home streak make a home loss unlikely, while São Bernardo's away form suggests they can compete, but the double chance heavily favors the home side.
- Criciuma home record: 3W 3D 0L, 83% unbeaten at home
- São Bernardo away record: 5W 1D 0L, but facing a top-8 home side
- Criciuma last 5 home matches: 2W 3D, conceded only 4 goals in 6 home games
- H2H historical: Criciuma unbeaten in 2 meetings (1W 1D)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCriciuma or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high draw rate at halftime for both teams, especially São Bernardo's 80% in last 5, indicates a cautious start, likely resulting in a level score at the break.
- Criciuma leading at HT in 33% of matches, trailing in 20%
- São Bernardo leading at HT in 13% of matches, trailing in 7%
- Criciuma last 5: 2W 3D at HT; São Bernardo last 5: 1W 4D at HT
- Combined HT draw rate in recent matches: 60% for Criciuma, 80% for São Bernardo
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's tendency to improve in the second half at home, combined with São Bernardo's vulnerability after the break, suggests a possible draw-to-win scenario, though confidence is low due to São Bernardo's overall away resilience.
- Criciuma has won 3 of 6 home matches, with 2 of those wins coming after a drawn first half
- São Bernardo has drawn 4 of 6 away matches at HT, but only lost 1 away game overall
- Criciuma's second-half performance: scored 60% of goals after HT in last 15
- São Bernardo's second-half performance: conceded 60% of goals after HT in last 15
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / CriciumaEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong defensive records, with Criciuma conceding only 4 in 6 home games and São Bernardo conceding 5 in 6 away games, suggesting a low-scoring affair, reinforced by recent under trends.
- Criciuma home goals avg: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded; 4 of 6 home games under 2.5
- São Bernardo away goals avg: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded; 3 of 6 away games under 2.5
- Both teams average total goals in recent form: Criciuma 1.9, São Bernardo 1.6 over last 15
- Criciuma's last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite both teams' ability to score, Criciuma's strong home defense and São Bernardo's occasional away clean sheets point to a higher chance of at least one side failing to score, especially given the promotion pressure.
- Criciuma home clean sheets: 2 in 6 matches; conceded in 4 but only 4 total goals
- São Bernardo away clean sheets: 2 in 6 matches; scored in all 6 away games
- Criciuma last 5 home: both teams scored in 3 of 5
- São Bernardo last 5 away: both teams scored in 3 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a high frequency of goalless first halves in recent matches, making a scoreless first half likely.
- Criciuma first-half goals avg: 0.5 scored, 0.3 conceded; 7 of last 15 matches 0-0 at HT
- São Bernardo first-half goals avg: 0.3 scored, 0.2 conceded; 9 of last 15 matches 0-0 at HT
- Criciuma last 5 home: 3 of 5 were 0-0 at halftime
- São Bernardo last 5 away: 3 of 5 were 0-0 at halftime
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, with a majority of their matches seeing multiple goals after the break, but the overall low-scoring trend tempers confidence.
- Criciuma second-half goals avg: 0.6 scored, 0.5 conceded in last 15
- São Bernardo second-half goals avg: 1.0 scored, 0.6 conceded in last 15
- Criciuma home second-half goals: 4 of 6 home games had over 1.5 second-half goals
- São Bernardo away second-half goals: 4 of 6 away games had over 1.5 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance48%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's home matches tend to produce high corner counts, and São Bernardo's away games also average over 10 corners, but missing corner data in some recent São Bernardo matches reduces confidence.
- Criciuma home corners avg: 6.2 per game; opponent corners avg: 5.1
- São Bernardo away corners avg: 3.3 per game; opponent corners avg: 6.8
- Combined average corners in Criciuma home games: 11.3; in São Bernardo away games: 10.1
- Last 5 Criciuma home matches: 4 of 5 had over 9.5 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
São Bernardo's away matches see higher card counts, and the promotion stakes could increase intensity, but Criciuma's home discipline keeps this a borderline over.
- Criciuma home yellow cards avg: 2.0 per game; opponent avg: 2.0
- São Bernardo away yellow cards avg: 2.9 per game; opponent avg: 2.3
- Combined average cards in Criciuma home games: 4.0; in São Bernardo away games: 5.2
- Last 5 Criciuma matches: 3 of 5 had over 4.5 cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance53%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Criciuma	13	5	6	2	15-11	21	DWWDD
2	Sao Bernardo FC SP Promotion	14	7	4	3	20-11	25	LDWDW

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Criciuma

D1-1CearaJun 16SER

W1-0LondrinaJun 6SER

W2-1AvaiMay 30SER

D1-1Operario-PRMay 24SER

D1-1Atletico GoianienseMay 17SER

D0-0JuventudeMay 10SER

D1-1CuiabaMay 2SER

W3-1CRBApr 26SER

L2-3Fortaleza ECApr 19SER

W1-0Botafogo SPApr 10SER

L0-1GoiasApr 7SER

D1-1Athletic ClubApr 2SER

W1-0Nautico RecifeMar 22SER

L0-1CamboriúMar 4CAT

W1-0BrusqueFeb 28CAT

Sao Bernardo FC SP

L0-1JuventudeJun 21SER

D0-0Sport RecifeJun 14SER

W3-2CRBJun 7SER

D1-1NovorizontinoMay 31SER

W1-0Atletico GoianienseMay 24SER

D1-1America MineiroMay 16SER

W3-1LondrinaMay 12SER

D1-1CaxiasMay 7COP

W3-0Ponte PretaMay 3SER

D2-2TombenseApr 30COP

W1-0GoiasApr 26SER

W3-0Nautico RecifeApr 18SER

L0-1CianorteApr 15COP

L0-1Fortaleza ECApr 12SER

L0-1NovorizontinoApr 9COP

Squad & Injuries

Criciuma

38 available

Attackers9

Midfielders12

Defenders13

Goalkeeper4

Sao Bernardo FC SP

37 available

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders13

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 0.5

Criciuma or Draw

No

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Criciuma

Criciuma or Draw

Under 0.5

League Table

Recent Form

Criciuma

Sao Bernardo FC SP

Squad & Injuries

Criciuma

Sao Bernardo FC SP