Gremio Novorizontino SP1Cuiaba MT1

HT 1–1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–736%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 25–9On targetOn target 6–2CornersCorners 10–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 17:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Novorizontino are favored at home but the win odds offer no value; the best betting edge is Over 2.5 goals at 2.25 (+13.6 points) and Both Teams to Score at 2.20 (+9.5 points), while avoiding the first-half Over 0.5 at 1.44.

Context

Novorizontino are third in Serie B with 46 points and are in the promotion playoff places.
They have won their last four home games, scoring three goals in three of them. Their recent home wins include a 3-1 victory over Avai on September 5 and a 3-0 win over America Mineiro on August 20. This shows they are comfortable creating chances at home, but Cuiaba's away defense has been solid, conceding only 12 goals in 13 away matches.
- Won 3-1 vs Avai on 2026-09-05 at home.
- Won 3-0 vs America Mineiro on 2026-08-20 at home.
- Won 2-1 vs Sport Recife on 2026-08-28 at home.
Novorizontino sit second on 49 points after 27 rounds, holding a direct-promotion place, while Cuiabá are ninth on 39 and chasing the top six for the play-offs.
The table positions give both teams a concrete reason to pursue points, but from different positions in the promotion race. Novorizontino can protect their top-two standing, while Cuiabá need to close the gap to the play-off places. The format means a draw is more useful to the home side than to the visitors, who may have to take more risk late if the match is level.
- The CBF table updated on 10 September lists Novorizontino second after 27 matches and Cuiabá ninth after 27 matches.
- The CBF's 2026 format gives direct promotion to the top two, with teams placed third through sixth entering play-offs for the remaining promotion places.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 17:03 · Europe/BucharestCBF — Série B standingswww.cbf.com.br · 10 Sep 2026CBF — Série B promotion-race previewwww.cbf.com.br · 3 Sep 2026
Cuiaba are ninth in Serie B with 39 points and have a balanced away record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses.
They have lost only one of their last five away games, winning 2-1 at Botafogo SP on August 29 and 3-1 at Ceara on August 15. Their away defense has been solid, conceding just 12 goals in 13 away matches. This suggests they can compete away from home, but Novorizontino's strong home attack will test them.
- Won 2-1 at Botafogo SP on 2026-08-29.
- Won 3-1 at Ceara on 2026-08-15.
- Drew 1-1 at Sport Recife on 2026-07-27.
Novorizontino head coach Enderson Moreira has described his side's preferred game as keeping the ball on the ground and controlling possession.
That preference shapes how Novorizontino will try to manage the match, especially against a Cuiabá side that has improved through quick transitions after regaining possession. If Novorizontino dominate the ball, their rest defence will need to be sharp to prevent the visitors from attacking the spaces left behind.
- Moreira said Novorizontino made the ball stay on the ground and returned to its usual game in the second half of the 3-1 win at Botafogo-SP.
- The report confirms that Novorizontino host Cuiabá on 13 September in round 28.
ReportedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 17:03 · Europe/Bucharestge — Enderson on Novorizontino's fifth straight winge.globo.com · 10 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Strong home form and recent scoring form, combined with a positive H2H record, give Novorizontino the edge.
- Home record: 8W 2D 3L in 13 home matches, 22 goals scored, 13 conceded.
- Recent form: 4 wins and 1 draw in last 5 matches, scoring 12 goals.
- H2H: Novorizontino won 3-0 at home in June 2025 and 1-0 away in October 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's strong home form and Cuiaba's mediocre away record make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Home record: 8W 2D 3L, with only 3 home defeats.
- Cuiaba away record: 4W 5D 4L, with 9 matches without a win.
- H2H: Cuiaba have not beaten Novorizontino in the last 3 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGremio Novorizontino SP or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's superior first-half scoring and half-time lead record make them the most likely first-half leader.
- Novorizontino led at half-time in 53% of matches.
- Cuiaba trailed at half-time in 33% of matches.
- Novorizontino average 0.9 first-half goals vs Cuiaba's 0.3.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win with a half-time lead is plausible given Novorizontino's first-half dominance, but the probability remains moderate.
- Novorizontino led at half-time in 53% of matches and won 50% overall.
- Cuiaba trailed at half-time in 33% and lost 22% overall.
- H2H: Novorizontino won 3-0 at home in 2025.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostGremio Novorizontino SP / Gremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance35%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's attacking output at home and Cuiaba's need to chase the game should produce at least three goals.
- Novorizontino average 2.0 goals scored per match overall and 1.7 at home.
- Cuiaba average 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.
- Novorizontino's last 5 home matches: 3, 2, 3, 0, 4 goals scored.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiaba's consistent scoring and Novorizontino's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.
- Cuiaba have scored in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Novorizontino have conceded in 5 of their last 10 matches.
- Cuiaba average 1.2 goals scored per match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's tendency to score early and Cuiaba's first-half vulnerability support at least one first-half goal.
- Novorizontino average 0.9 first-half goals per match.
- Cuiaba average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Novorizontino led at half-time in 53% of matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, but the line is high and confidence is limited.
- Novorizontino average 1.1 second-half goals per match (2.0 total - 0.9 first half).
- Cuiaba average 0.9 second-half goals per match (1.2 total - 0.3 first half).
- Combined second-half average is 2.0 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, making over 9.5 corners likely.
- Novorizontino average 6.7 corners per match, Cuiaba 6.3.
- Combined average is 13.0 corners per match.
- Recent home matches for Novorizontino: 8, 9, 5, 13, 7 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce a solid number of shots on target, supporting over 8.5.
- Novorizontino average 5.9 shots on target per match, Cuiaba 4.1.
- Combined average is 10.0 shots on target.
- Novorizontino's recent home matches: 8, 9, 8, 2, 4 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card average is near the line, and the competitive stakes may increase card count.
- Novorizontino average 1.7 yellow cards per match, Cuiaba 1.7.
- Combined average is 3.4 yellow cards per match.
- Recent matches show occasional spikes in cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%