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Predictions graded

Gremio Novorizontino SP2Vila Nova1

HT 1–1Fri 26 Jun 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges3–0100%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 12–5On targetOn target 3–2CornersCorners 2–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Jun 2026, 02:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Both Teams to Score Yes at 2.00 for the best value, with an 8-point edge over implied odds, driven by high BTTS rates for both sides (83% home, 71% away) and a 60% H2H trend.

First-half Over 0.5 goals at 1.40 is a safer, high-confidence play with a 4-point edge. Avoid the match winner draw market despite its likelihood, as the odds are efficient.

Context

Novorizontino's 20 June preview described them as 5th with 21 points, four off the leaders, and needing to keep winning.
- Vila Nova's Guto Ferreira said after the 4-3 win over Nautico that 'every game is a final' and pointed to this match.
- Serie B 2026 sends the top 2 up directly and places 3rd-6th into promotion playoffs, so both sides have meaningful incentives.
The club's official site confirmed Nicolas Careca, Tavinho, Diego Mathias, Luis Oyama, Jhilmar Lora, and Eduardo Brock returned from the medical department.
- Brock is a centre-back, strengthening a key defensive area.
- The returns give Moreira more rotation options ahead of a tight schedule.
On 19 June, ge reported Vila Nova had lined up four reinforcements and still wanted a centre-back and two wide attackers.
- The registration window runs until 20 July, so more changes are possible.
- Integrating new players quickly can be challenging, especially in a promotion race.
On 22 June, the club announced a 'Vem pro Jorjao' push with a scooter raffle if attendance exceeds 2,500.
- Cheap tickets and free entry for under-12s were also offered.
- This is a deliberate attempt to create a hostile environment for the league leaders.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Gremio Novorizontino SP or Draw

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Novorizontino have lost only 1 of 6 home matches this season, while Vila Nova have won just 3 of 7 away, supporting a high probability of the home side avoiding defeat.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are in strong promotion-motivated form, but Novorizontino's high draw rate at home (50%) and recent H2H draw pattern suggest a stalemate is likely, especially with Vila Nova's solid but not dominant away record.
- Novorizontino home record: 3W-2D-1L (6 matches), 50% draws at home
- Vila Nova away record: 3W-2D-2L (7 matches), 29% draws away
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 2 Novorizontino wins, 1 Vila Nova win; last meeting 1-1 draw
- Novorizontino last 5 form: D-W-D-W-D (3 draws in 5); Vila Nova last 5: W-L-W-W-W (1 draw in 5)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's strong home resilience (only 1 loss) and historical H2H edge at their ground, combined with Vila Nova's imperfect away form, make the home side avoiding defeat highly probable.
- Novorizontino home losses: only 1 in 6 (17%)
- Vila Nova away wins: 3 in 7 (43%), but 2 losses
- H2H at Novorizontino: 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses for home side in last 3
- Novorizontino unbeaten in 4 of last 5 home matches (all comps)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGremio Novorizontino SP or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be level at half-time in their respective splits, and recent H2H shows a balanced first-half dynamic, supporting a draw at the break.
- Novorizontino home half-time results: 13% lead, 20% trail, 67% draw (overall avg, but home likely similar)
- Vila Nova away half-time: 33% lead, 20% trail, 47% draw (overall avg)
- Last 5 H2H half-time: 2 draws, 2 Novorizontino leads, 1 Vila Nova lead
- Novorizontino last 5 home matches half-time: 3 draws, 1 lead, 1 trail
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a full draw is plausible given both teams' cautious approach in high-stakes games, the specific HT/FT draw combination is less frequent, but supported by the pattern of tight first halves and balanced second halves in H2H.
- Novorizontino home: 2 of 6 matches ended in draw (33%), but half-time draws more common
- Vila Nova away: 2 of 7 draws (29%)
- H2H: 2 of last 5 were draws, both 1-1
- Both teams have high draw tendencies in tight promotion matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's home matches trend high-scoring (4 of last 5 over 2.5), and H2H history shows 60% over 2.5, while both teams have motivation to attack in a promotion six-pointer.
- Novorizontino home goals avg: 1.5 scored, 1.33 conceded (6 matches) -> 2.83 total avg
- Vila Nova away goals avg: 1.14 scored, 1.0 conceded (7 matches) -> 2.14 total avg
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals (60%)
- Novorizontino last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently score and concede in their respective home/away splits, and the promotion stakes encourage attacking intent, making BTTS a strong likelihood.
- Novorizontino home: scored in 5 of 6, conceded in 5 of 6 (83% BTTS rate)
- Vila Nova away: scored in 5 of 7, conceded in 5 of 7 (71% BTTS rate)
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5 (60%)
- Novorizontino overall BTTS in last 15: 60%; Vila Nova overall: 53%
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H and recent home/away first-half stats show a consistent pattern of early goals, with 80% of last 5 meetings and 80% of Novorizontino's recent home games seeing a first-half goal.
- Novorizontino home first-half goals: 0.5 avg scored, 0.5 conceded -> 1.0 total avg
- Vila Nova away first-half goals: 0.8 avg scored, 0.5 conceded -> 1.3 total avg
- Last 5 H2H: 4 of 5 had first-half goals (80%)
- Novorizontino last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
H2H history shows a strong trend of second-half goals (80% over 1.5), and Novorizontino's home second halves are high-scoring, outweighing Vila Nova's lower away second-half output.
- Novorizontino home second-half goals: 1.0 avg scored, 0.83 conceded -> 1.83 total avg
- Vila Nova away second-half goals: 0.34 scored, 0.5 conceded -> 0.84 total avg (but overall team second-half avg 1.0)
- Last 5 H2H second-half goals: 2, 1, 2, 1, 2 -> avg 1.6, 4 of 5 over 1.5
- Novorizontino last 5 home second halves: 3 of 5 over 1.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages hover near the 9.5 line, with Vila Nova's away matches slightly higher, but limited H2H corner data makes this a low-confidence lean toward over based on team tendencies.
- Novorizontino home corners avg: 5.0 for, 4.0 against -> 9.0 total (from available data)
- Vila Nova away corners avg: 5.4 for, 4.7 against -> 10.1 total (from available data)
- Last 5 H2H corner data incomplete, but available matches show 9, 10, 9 corners
- Both teams average around 5 corners per game overall
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have above-average card counts, especially Vila Nova away (6.1 total cards per away game), and the high-stakes nature of the match should push the total over 4.5 cards.
- Novorizontino home yellow cards avg: 2.2, opponent avg: 2.5 -> 4.7 total
- Vila Nova away yellow cards avg: 3.3, opponent avg: 2.8 -> 6.1 total
- Both teams average over 2.5 cards per game overall
- Promotion six-pointer context likely increases disciplinary actions
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

D1-1NovorizontinovVila NovaSep 28, 2025SER

W0-1Vila NovavNovorizontinoMay 30, 2025SER

L2-0NovorizontinovVila NovaAug 31, 2024SER

L2-1Vila NovavNovorizontinoMay 14, 2024SER

L3-1NovorizontinovVila NovaJul 30, 2023SER

2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Gremio Novorizontino SP	13	5	6	2	20-13	21	DWDWD
1	Vila Nova Promotion	14	8	4	2	22-15	28	WLWWW

7pt gap between teamsVila Nova leads the league

Recent Form

Gremio Novorizontino SP

D2-2Nautico RecifeJun 14SER

W4-0GoiasJun 10SER

D1-1São BernardoMay 31SER

D2-2Chapecoense-scMay 27COP

W2-1CearaMay 23SER

L0-2Chapecoense-scMay 20COP

D0-0CuiabaMay 16SER

W1-0Botafogo SPMay 10SER

W2-1Volta RedondaMay 7COP

D3-3AvaiMay 3SER

L1-2AvaiApr 30COP

L0-1Sport RecifeApr 25SER

W2-1Athletic ClubApr 19SER

D1-1Operario-PRApr 15COP

W3-0America MineiroApr 12SER

Vila Nova

W4-3Nautico RecifeJun 20SER

L0-1CuiabaJun 14SER

W1-0Botafogo SPJun 8SER

W1-0LondrinaMay 31SER

W2-1America MineiroMay 24SER

W2-0AvaiMay 17SER

L0-1GoiasMay 9SER

D1-1Athletic ClubMay 4SER

W2-1AraguaínaApr 29COP

D3-3CearaApr 26SER

W2-1Operario-PRApr 18SER

D0-0Capital BrasiliaApr 16COP

W1-0Ponte PretaApr 11SER

D2-2Primavera MGApr 8COP

W2-1Atletico GoianienseApr 4SER

Squad & Injuries

Gremio Novorizontino SP

55 available

Attackers16

Midfielders19

Defenders13

Goalkeeper7

Vila Nova

38 available

Attackers11

Midfielders12

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 0.5

Yes

Gremio Novorizontino SP or Draw

Draw

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Yes

Over 4.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Gremio Novorizontino SP

Vila Nova

Squad & Injuries

Gremio Novorizontino SP

Vila Nova