Gremio Novorizontino SP3Avai1

HT 3–1Sat 5 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–282%

Edges7–188%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 18–7On targetOn target 8–4CornersCorners 8–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 16:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Novorizontino are strong home favorites, but the odds offer no value on the win.

The best betting edges are in the goals markets: Over 2.5 goals (+3pts), Both Teams to Score (+10pts), and especially Second Half Over 1.5 goals (+18pts).

Context

Novorizontino are 4th in Serie B and in the promotion play-off places. Avai are 16th and only one point above the relegation line.
Novorizontino's home record is strong: 7 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in 12 home matches, with 19 goals scored and 12 conceded. Avai's away record is weak: 3 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses in 12 away matches, with 13 goals scored and 18 conceded. This contrast suggests Novorizontino are likely to control the match at home, but Avai's recent away win at Ponte Preta shows they can still compete.
- Novorizontino home record: 7 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 12 matches, 19 goals for, 12 against.
- Avai away record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses in 12 matches, 13 goals for, 18 against.
Novorizontino are 4th in Serie B and in the promotion play-off places. They have won three of their last five league matches.
Novorizontino have scored 9 goals in their last three league matches: 2-1 vs Sport Recife, 4-1 at Athletic Club, and 3-0 vs America Mineiro. This scoring run shows they are creating and converting chances effectively. Avai have conceded 18 goals in 12 away matches, so Novorizontino's attack could find space.
- Novorizontino 2-1 Sport Recife on 2026-08-28.
- Novorizontino 4-1 Athletic Club on 2026-08-24.
- Novorizontino 3-0 America Mineiro on 2026-08-20.
Avai are 16th in Serie B and only one point above the relegation line. They have won three of their last five league matches.
Avai's away record is weak overall: 3 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses in 12 away matches. However, they won 2-0 at Ponte Preta on 2026-08-23, which shows they can pick up points on the road. Novorizontino have lost 3 of 12 home matches, so Avai may have a chance if they defend well.
- Avai away record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses in 12 matches.
- Avai won 2-0 at Ponte Preta on 2026-08-23.
Avaí midfielder Daniel Penha missed the 30 August match against Atlético-GO while accompanying his wife during treatment in Belo Horizonte.
His availability for this fixture remains unresolved, which narrows Avaí's midfield selection and adds uncertainty around their chance-creation options. Without a confirmed return, the team may need to rely on alternative midfielders, though no specific replacement has been identified.
- GE reported that Daniel Penha was in Belo Horizonte accompanying his wife during treatment.
- The report states that he did not play in Avaí's 30 August match against Atlético-GO.
To watchSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 16:30 · Europe/BucharestGEge.globo.com · 31 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's strong home record and superior overall stats, combined with Avai's poor away form, make a home win likely.
- Home form: 7W-2D-3L at home, 19 goals scored vs 12 conceded in 12 home matches.
- Overall form: 12W-7D-6L, 41 goals scored vs 22 conceded, +19 goal difference.
- Avai away form: 3W-2D-7L, 13 goals scored vs 18 conceded in 12 away matches.
- H2H last 5: Novorizontino 1W-3D-1L, but Avai's only win came in Copa Sul-Sudeste; last Serie B home meeting ended 1-1.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Novorizontino's strong home form and Avai's struggles away, the double chance heavily favors the home side.
- Novorizontino home unbeaten rate: 9/12 (75%) with 7 wins and 2 draws.
- Avai away win rate: only 25% (3/12).
- H2H: 4 of last 5 meetings ended in draw or Novorizontino win.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGremio Novorizontino SP or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's tendency to lead at halftime and Avai's vulnerability early give the home side an edge.
- Novorizontino leading at halftime in 47% of matches.
- Avai trailing at halftime in 33% of matches.
- Novorizontino first half goal difference: +0.4 per match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win with a halftime lead is plausible given Novorizontino's home dominance and Avai's away struggles.
- Novorizontino home win rate: 58%.
- Novorizontino leading at halftime in 47% of matches.
- Avai away loss rate: 58%.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonGremio Novorizontino SP / Gremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance40%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits suggest a moderate goal expectation, with H2H supporting over 2.5.
- Novorizontino home matches average 2.58 total goals (19+12)/12.
- Avai away matches average 2.58 total goals (13+18)/12.
- Recent H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making BTTS likely.
- Novorizontino home: scored in 10/12, conceded in 8/12.
- Avai away: scored in 9/12, conceded in 10/12.
- H2H: both teams scored in 4 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half scoring rate suggests a decent chance of at least one goal before halftime.
- Novorizontino first half goals: 0.8 per match, conceded 0.4.
- Avai first half goals: 0.4 per match, conceded 0.5.
- Combined first half average: 1.05 goals per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to produce more goals for both teams, supporting over 1.5.
- Novorizontino second half goals: 1.1 per match (1.9-0.8).
- Avai second half goals: 0.9 per match (1.3-0.4).
- Combined second half average: 2.0 goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages suggest a total above 9.5 is slightly more likely.
- Novorizontino average corners: 6.2 per match, opponent corners: 5.6.
- Avai average corners: 3.9 per match, opponent corners: 6.3.
- Combined average corners: 11.0 per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is close to the line, making this a coin flip.
- Novorizontino average shots on target: 5.5 per match, opponent: 3.2.
- Avai average shots on target: 3.4 per match, opponent: 4.1.
- Combined average shots on target: 8.1 per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined yellow card average slightly favors over 3.5 cards.
- Novorizontino average yellow cards: 1.7 per match, opponent: 2.1.
- Avai average yellow cards: 1.9 per match, opponent: 1.7.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.7 per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%