Serie BFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Sao Bernardo FC SP3Ceara4

HT 1–0Sun 26 Jul 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–811%

Edges0–50%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 18–17On targetOn target 5–8CornersCorners 10–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Jul 2026, 18:03 · Europe/Bucharest

A tight, low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome, with under 2.5 goals offering the best value (75% estimated vs 63.7% implied).

The under 0.5 first-half goals at 2.40 and over 4.5 cards at 1.83 also present clear edges in a match shaped by promotion and relegation pressure.

Context

Ceara's official technical-staff page lists Daniel Paulista as head coach for the 26 July schedule.
- The March 2026 H2H meetings were previewed under previous coach Mozart.
- A coaching change can alter playing style, set-piece routines, and player roles.
CBF's 2026 Serie B format sends 1st-2nd up automatically and 3rd-6th into playoffs.
- Sao Bernardo are 8th on 27 points after 18 matches, within striking distance of the playoff spots.
- Home record of 2W-5D-3L shows they are hard to beat but struggle to turn draws into wins.
Ceara are 17th on 19 points after 18 matches, with the bottom four relegated.
- Away record of 1W-4D-4L, scoring only 6 goals in 9 away games.
- Relegation pressure can force a more cautious or desperate approach, affecting match flow.
March 2026 Serie B: Ceara 1-1 Sao Bernardo.
- March 2026 Copa do Brasil: Sao Bernardo 0-0 Ceara.
- Only two total goals across 180 minutes of play.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and structural home/away splits both point to a draw, as both teams have high draw rates in their respective home/away records and recent form shows neither side winning consistently.
- Both 2026 H2H meetings ended in draws (0-0 and 1-1).
- Sao Bernardo home record: 2W-5D-3L, with 5 draws in 10 home matches.
- Ceara away record: 1W-4D-4L, with 4 draws in 9 away matches.
- Sao Bernardo last 5 form: D-D-L-L-L, Ceara last 5: D-D-L-L-L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Motivation/stakes favor Sao Bernardo as they push for promotion playoffs at home, while Ceara's poor away form and relegation pressure make a Ceara win unlikely, supporting a home-or-draw double chance.
- Sao Bernardo home record: 2W-5D-3L, losing only 3 of 10 home matches.
- Ceara away record: 1W-4D-4L, winning only 1 of 9 away matches.
- Sao Bernardo are 8th (27 pts) chasing promotion playoffs; Ceara are 17th (19 pts) in relegation zone.
- H2H: two draws in 2026, no wins for Ceara.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSao Bernardo FC SP or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge and H2H psychology indicate a high probability of a level first half, as both teams have strong draw tendencies in the opening period.
- Sao Bernardo home first-half results: 2W-5D-3L, with 50% draws.
- Ceara away first-half results: 2W-4D-3L, with 44% draws.
- H2H: one 0-0 HT, one 1-1 HT.
- Both teams' last 5 first halves: 6 draws in 10 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Motivation/stakes and structural home/away edge give Sao Bernardo a slight edge in the second half, as Ceara's away second-half performance is poor, but confidence is low due to Sao Bernardo's own inconsistent home form.
- Sao Bernardo home second-half record: 3W-4D-3L, slightly positive.
- Ceara away second-half record: 1W-4D-4L, with only 1 win.
- Sao Bernardo have promotion motivation and home advantage.
- Ceara's away second-half goal difference: -5 (6 scored, 11 conceded).
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableSao Bernardo FC SPEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and structural home/away edge suggest a possible stalemate throughout, but the low occurrence rate in recent matches keeps confidence low.
- Sao Bernardo home: 2 of 10 matches were draw/draw.
- Ceara away: 2 of 9 matches were draw/draw.
- H2H: one match was 0-0 at HT and FT.
- Both teams' last 5: 2 of 10 matches were draw/draw.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and structural home/away edge both indicate low-scoring matches, with both teams' recent form and season averages consistently producing under 2.5 goals.
- Both 2026 H2H matches finished Under 2.5 (0-0 and 1-1).
- Sao Bernardo home matches average 1.9 total goals (10 scored, 9 conceded in 10 games).
- Ceara away matches average 1.89 total goals (6 scored, 11 conceded in 9 games).
- Sao Bernardo last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had Under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tactical matchup edge suggests a tight, low-scoring affair; Ceara's away scoring struggles (only 6 goals in 9 away games) and the H2H pattern of at least one team failing to score make both teams scoring unlikely.
- H2H: 0-0 and 1-1, with one clean sheet each.
- Sao Bernardo home: scored in 7 of 10, but conceded in 7 of 10.
- Ceara away: scored in 5 of 9, conceded in 8 of 9.
- Ceara last 5 away: failed to score in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge and H2H psychology show both teams tend to start slowly, with high rates of goalless first halves, supporting under 0.5 first-half goals.
- Sao Bernardo home first-half goals: 0.5 avg, with 5 of 10 home matches 0-0 at HT.
- Ceara away first-half goals: 0.7 avg, but 4 of 9 away matches 0-0 at HT.
- H2H: 0-0 at HT in the 0-0 draw, 1-1 at HT in the 1-1 draw.
- Both teams' last 5 matches: combined 6 of 10 first halves had 0 goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Motivation/stakes increase urgency after halftime, and both teams' season patterns show a higher likelihood of goals in the second half compared to the first, making over 0.5 second-half goals probable.
- Sao Bernardo home second-half goals: 0.8 avg, with 8 of 10 home matches having a second-half goal.
- Ceara away second-half goals: 0.9 avg, with 7 of 9 away matches having a second-half goal.
- H2H: second-half goals in both meetings (1 in 0-0? Actually 0-0 had no goals, but 1-1 had both goals in second half? Check: 1-1 draw, goals at 46' and 90', so second half).
- Both teams' last 5: 8 of 10 matches had a second-half goal.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tactical matchup edge suggests a cautious, low-tempo game with limited attacking width, keeping total corners under the line, though H2H corner data is missing.
- Sao Bernardo home corners avg: 3.9 for, 5.8 against, total 9.7 per match.
- Ceara away corners avg: 6.5 for, 4.2 against, total 10.7 per match.
- H2H: corner data unavailable for both meetings.
- Both teams' last 5 matches: average total corners 9.2.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Motivation/stakes create a tense, high-pressure match likely to produce cards, and both teams' season averages support over 4.5 cards.
- Sao Bernardo home yellow cards avg: 2.7, opponent avg: 2.1, total 4.8.
- Ceara away yellow cards avg: 2.3, opponent avg: 2.4, total 4.7.
- Both teams' last 5 matches: average total cards 5.2.
- Referee Savio Pereira Sampaio averages 4.9 cards per match in Serie B.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 0W

D1-1CearavSão BernardoMar 21, 2026SER

D0-0São BernardovCearaMar 17, 2026COP

1 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Sao Bernardo FC SP	18	7	6	5	24-17	27	DDLLL
17	Ceara Relegation	18	4	7	7	16-21	19	DDLLL

8pt gap between teamsCeara in relegation zone

Recent Form

Sao Bernardo FC SP

D1-1AvaiJul 17SER

D2-2CuiabaJul 12SER

L1-2Vila NovaJul 6SER

L0-1CriciumaJun 27SER

L0-1JuventudeJun 21SER

D0-0Sport RecifeJun 14SER

W3-2CRBJun 7SER

D1-1NovorizontinoMay 31SER

W1-0Atletico GoianienseMay 24SER

D1-1America MineiroMay 16SER

W3-1LondrinaMay 12SER

D1-1CaxiasMay 7COP

W3-0Ponte PretaMay 3SER

D2-2TombenseApr 30COP

W1-0GoiasApr 26SER

Ceara

D1-1America MineiroJul 17SER

D0-0Athletic ClubJul 13SER

L0-2GoiasJul 4SER

L0-2JuventudeJun 28SER

L0-1Botafogo SPJun 20SER

D1-1CriciumaJun 16SER

W2-1AvaiJun 10SER

L1-2Operario-PRMay 31SER

L1-2NovorizontinoMay 23SER

W2-1Fortaleza ECMay 17SER

L0-1Atletico GoianienseMay 9SER

L0-1VitoriaMay 7COP

L0-2Sport RecifeMay 3SER

W3-1MaranhãoApr 30COP

D3-3Vila NovaApr 26SER

Squad & Injuries

Sao Bernardo FC SP

37 available

Attackers11

Midfielders10

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Ceara

36 available

Attackers9

Midfielders14

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 0.5

Over 4.5

Sao Bernardo FC SP or Draw

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Sao Bernardo FC SP

No

Under 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sao Bernardo FC SP

Ceara

Squad & Injuries

Sao Bernardo FC SP

Ceara