Serie BFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Sao Bernardo FC SP2Cuiaba MT2

HT 2–2Sun 12 Jul 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 73%–27%ShotsShots 11–9On targetOn target 3–3CornersCorners 6–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Jul 2026, 11:12 · Europe/Bucharest

A tight promotion six-pointer between defensively solid sides points to a low-scoring affair.

The best value lies in first-half under 0.5 goals (+19.5% edge) and under 2.5 goals (high confidence, 72% probability), while the home win and first-half over 0.5 goals are traps. The draw offers a slim edge but carries risk given the stakes.

Context

São Bernardo are 6th on 25 points, holding the last playoff berth.
- The 2026 Série B sends 3rd-6th into promotion playoffs, with higher seed hosting the second leg and advancing if aggregate is tied.
- Cuiabá are 10th on 23 points, only two points behind, making this a direct gap-closing opportunity.
Cuiabá away goals conceded: 3 in 7 matches (0.43 per game).
- They kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Overall, Cuiabá average 0.9 goals conceded per game, matching São Bernardo's defensive solidity.
São Bernardo home goals: 7 in 8 matches (0.88 per game).
- They failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches overall.
- Recent home results: 0-1 vs Juventude, 0-0 vs Sport Recife, 1-1 vs Novorizontino.
São Bernardo first-half goals: 0.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game.
- Cuiabá first-half goals: 0.4 scored, 0.5 conceded per game.
- Both teams led at half-time in only 13% of matches, with 67% ending the first half level.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
São Bernardo's poor home form (only 2 wins in 8) combined with Cuiabá's solid away defensive record (3 goals conceded in 7 away games) and both teams' low-scoring trends make a draw the most likely outcome in this tight promotion six-pointer.
- São Bernardo home record: 2W-3D-3L (8 matches), only 2 wins at home this season.
- Cuiabá away record: 2W-3D-2L (7 matches), 3 draws in 7 away games.
- Last 5 matches: São Bernardo LLLDW (poor form), Cuiabá WDLWW (unbeaten in 5).
- Both teams average 0.9 goals conceded per game overall, indicating defensive solidity.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given São Bernardo's poor recent form and weak home record, coupled with Cuiabá's strong away defensive numbers and unbeaten run, Cuiabá are well-placed to avoid defeat.
- São Bernardo have lost 3 of their last 5 matches overall.
- Cuiabá are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches (WDLWW).
- São Bernardo home win rate only 25% (2/8), Cuiabá away loss rate only 29% (2/7).
- Cuiabá have conceded only 3 goals in 7 away games this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Cuiaba MTEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a strong tendency to be level at half-time, supported by low first-half goal averages, making a draw the most probable half-time result.
- São Bernardo half-time results: 67% draws in last 15 matches.
- Cuiabá half-time results: 67% draws in last 15 matches.
- São Bernardo first-half goals: 0.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game.
- Cuiabá first-half goals: 0.4 scored, 0.5 conceded per game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong defensive records and low-scoring trends, especially in home/away splits, making under 2.5 goals highly probable.
- São Bernardo home matches average 1.63 total goals (7 scored, 6 conceded in 8 games).
- Cuiabá away matches average 1.0 total goals (4 scored, 3 conceded in 7 games).
- Both teams average under 1 goal conceded per game overall (São Bernardo 0.9, Cuiabá 0.9).
- Last 5 H2H not available, but both teams' recent matches show 7 of last 10 combined under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
São Bernardo's home scoring struggles and Cuiabá's excellent away defensive record suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- São Bernardo failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Cuiabá kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- São Bernardo home goals: 7 in 8 (0.88 per game), Cuiabá away goals conceded: 3 in 7 (0.43 per game).
- Both teams average under 1 goal scored per game (São Bernardo 1.3 overall but only 0.88 at home, Cuiabá 0.9 overall).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cuiabá's strong away defensive form and São Bernardo's recent scoring difficulties increase the chance of an away clean sheet, though the low-scoring nature of the match keeps confidence low.
- Cuiabá kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Cuiabá away goals conceded: only 3 in 7 matches (0.43 per game).
- São Bernardo failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches overall.
- São Bernardo home goals: only 7 in 8 matches (0.88 per game).
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSao Bernardo FC SP not to scoreEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have very low first-half scoring rates and high draw percentages at half-time, making a goalless first half likely.
- São Bernardo average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game.
- Cuiabá average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game.
- São Bernardo led at half-time in only 13% of matches, trailed in 20%, drawn in 67%.
- Cuiabá led at half-time in 13% of matches, trailed in 20%, drawn in 67%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score the majority of their goals after half-time, and historical data shows a high likelihood of at least one second-half goal.
- São Bernardo average 1.0 second-half goals per game (1.3 total - 0.3 first half).
- Cuiabá average 0.5 second-half goals per game (0.9 total - 0.4 first half).
- Combined second-half goal average: 1.5 per game.
- Only 2 of last 10 combined matches had a goalless second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiabá's high corner count and São Bernardo's tendency to concede corners could push the total over 8.5, though São Bernardo's low corner numbers add uncertainty.
- Cuiabá average 5.6 corners per game overall, with 7+ corners in 4 of last 5 matches.
- São Bernardo average only 2.8 corners per game, but concede high opponent corners (e.g., 11 vs Sport Recife, 8 vs CRB).
- Combined average corners in Cuiabá matches: 5.6 + opponent corners (estimated ~4.5) = ~10.1.
- São Bernardo home matches have seen 8+ corners in 3 of last 5 with data.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent card counts, and the high-stakes promotion battle increases the likelihood of a physical, card-heavy match.
- São Bernardo average 3.0 yellow cards per game, Cuiabá average 2.3.
- Combined average yellow cards: 5.3 per game.
- São Bernardo home matches: 3+ yellow cards in 4 of last 5 with data.
- Cuiabá away matches: 2+ yellow cards in 4 of last 5 with data.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

League Table

Serie B 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Sao Bernardo FC SP Promotion Play-offs	16	7	4	5	21-14	25	LLLDW
10	Cuiaba MT	16	5	8	3	12-9	23	WDLWW

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Sao Bernardo FC SP

L1-2Vila NovaJul 6SER

L0-1CriciumaJun 27SER

L0-1JuventudeJun 21SER

D0-0Sport RecifeJun 14SER

W3-2CRBJun 7SER

D1-1NovorizontinoMay 31SER

W1-0Atletico GoianienseMay 24SER

D1-1America MineiroMay 16SER

W3-1LondrinaMay 12SER

D1-1CaxiasMay 7COP

W3-0Ponte PretaMay 3SER

D2-2TombenseApr 30COP

W1-0GoiasApr 26SER

W3-0Nautico RecifeApr 18SER

L0-1CianorteApr 15COP

Cuiaba MT

W1-0America MineiroJul 2SER

D2-2LondrinaJun 25SER

L0-1AvaiJun 21SER

W1-0Vila NovaJun 14SER

W2-1Ponte PretaJun 9SER

W2-0CRBMay 31SER

L0-1Nautico RecifeMay 22SER

D0-0NovorizontinoMay 16SER

D0-0Athletic ClubMay 9SER

D1-1CriciumaMay 2SER

L0-4AnápolisApr 29COP

D1-1Botafogo SPApr 23SER

W2-0GoiasApr 19SER

L2-3Porto VitóriaApr 15COP

D0-0Operario-PRApr 12SER

Squad & Injuries

Sao Bernardo FC SP

37 available

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders13

Goalkeeper4

Cuiaba MT

35 available

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 0.5

Over 4.5

Draw or Cuiaba MT

No

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Sao Bernardo FC SP

Over 0.5

League Table

Recent Form

Sao Bernardo FC SP

Cuiaba MT

Squad & Injuries

Sao Bernardo FC SP

Cuiaba MT