Gremio Novorizontino SP2Sport Recife1

HT 1–0Fri 28 Aug 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 42%–58%ShotsShots 22–7On targetOn target 7–0CornersCorners 8–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 23:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Sport Recife's strong H2H record (4 wins in 7) and solid away defence make them a dangerous underdog against an overpriced Novorizontino.

The home win and double chance are value traps, while under 2.5 goals is fairly priced with no edge. Expect a tight, low-scoring contest.

Context

Sport won 1-0 in the reverse fixture this season.
- Sport kept clean sheets in three of the last five H2H matches.
- Novorizontino scored zero in three of those five games.
Home record: 6W-2D-3L, 17 goals scored, 11 conceded.
- Lost at home to Juventude and Criciuma.
- Sport away record: 4W-4D-3L, only 8 goals conceded.
President Matheus Souto Maior backed Dal Pozzo on 3 August.
- The club's 25 August update still has Dal Pozzo leading training.
- Sport have been competitive on the road, losing only three of eleven away games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Gremio Novorizontino SP or Draw

1.14fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

The market price is far too short for the home double chance; our 72% estimate is well below the 88% implied, so this is a value trap rather than an edge.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Gremio Novorizontino SP

1.67fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 60%

0.0ppshort

The home win is heavily overpriced by the market; our 42% estimate is far below the 60% implied, so there is no value on the favourite.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.35fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams are slow starters with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals highly probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's strong home form and superior goal difference give them a slight edge, but Sport's solid away record and H2H dominance temper confidence.
- Home record: 6W-2D-3L, 17 goals scored, 11 conceded in 11 home matches
- Overall form: 10W-7D-6L, 35 goals scored, 20 conceded (best goal difference +15 in league)
- Last 5 home matches: 3W-1D-1L, including 3-0 vs America Mineiro and 3-0 vs Atletico Goianiense
- Sport away record: 4W-4D-3L, 10 goals scored, 8 conceded in 11 away matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Novorizontino's strong home form with Sport's moderate away win rate, the home side avoiding defeat is highly likely.
- Novorizontino home unbeaten rate: 8/11 (73%)
- Sport away win rate: 4/11 (36%)
- H2H last 5: Sport won 3, Novorizontino won 1, Draw 1
- Novorizontino overall draw rate: 7/23 (30%)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGremio Novorizontino SP or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles with frequent draws, and the H2H supports a level score at the break.
- Novorizontino leading at half time: 33% of matches
- Sport leading at half time: 33% of matches
- Both teams draw at half time in 34% of matches combined
- H2H last 5: 3 matches were level at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A plausible scenario given Novorizontino's ability to push for wins at home, but low probability due to Sport's resilience.
- Novorizontino home wins after drawing at half time: 2 in last 5 home matches
- Sport away losses after drawing at half time: 1 in last 5 away matches
- Overall draw at half time rate: 34%
- Novorizontino home win rate: 55%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Gremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have solid defenses and the H2H trend shows low-scoring encounters, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Novorizontino home matches average 2.55 total goals (17+11 in 11 games)
- Sport away matches average 1.64 total goals (10+8 in 11 games)
- H2H last 5: 3 matches had under 2.5 goals
- Both teams average under 1.2 goals conceded per game overall
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to keep clean sheets, and the H2H pattern includes multiple shutouts, making BTTS No a reasonable pick.
- Novorizontino home clean sheets: 4/11 (36%)
- Sport away clean sheets: 5/11 (45%)
- H2H last 5: 3 matches ended with one team failing to score
- Sport away goals scored: 10 in 11 (0.91 per game)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are slow starters with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals highly probable.
- Novorizontino first half goals per game: 0.8, conceded 0.5
- Sport first half goals per game: 0.5, conceded 0.5
- H2H last 5: only 2 first-half goals total across all matches
- Both teams average under 1.0 first-half goals combined
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slight lean toward second-half goals based on scoring patterns, but low confidence due to overall defensive solidity.
- Novorizontino second half goals per game: 0.9 (1.7 total - 0.8 first half)
- Sport second half goals per game: 0.6 (1.1 total - 0.5 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.5 goals
- H2H last 5: 4 second-half goals in 5 matches (0.8 per game)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, and the combined average exceeds the 9.5 line.
- Novorizontino average corners per game: 6.0, opponent corners: 5.5
- Sport average corners per game: 4.9, opponent corners: 6.1
- Combined average corners: 11.0 per match
- H2H last 5: average corners 9.8 per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate disciplinary records, and the combined average suggests over 4.5 cards is likely.
- Novorizontino average yellow cards: 1.9, opponent: 2.1
- Sport average yellow cards: 2.6, opponent: 2.0
- Combined average cards per match: 4.5+
- Recent meetings have seen multiple bookings
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 88% leaves no cushion vs our 72% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Gremio Novorizontino SP has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Gremio Novorizontino SP has fulfilled 2 of 4 win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 45.8% and 1.8 expected wins. The two missed predictions resulted in one draw and one loss, while the current probability of 42% sits below the historical range of 45-48%. At home, they have fulfilled 1 of 3 predictions, indicating recent home win projections have been less dependable.

Recent evidence for Gremio Novorizontino SP4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jul·Serie B