Operario11 – 3Sao Bernardo FC SP3

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Operario's strong home form and dominant H2H record, combined with São Bernardo's poor recent form, give the hosts a clear edge.

• Operario home record: 6W-3D-1L (15GF, 11GA) in 10 home matches this season.
• São Bernardo away record: 5W-1D-3L (15GF, 10GA) in 9 away matches, but recent away form is 2W-1D-2L in last 5.
• H2H: Operario won both home meetings 1-0 and the most recent meeting 2-1 away in April 2026.
• Operario form: 4W-1D-1L in last 6, São Bernardo form: 0W-2D-4L in last 6.

BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOperarioEstimated chance45%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Operario's strong home resilience and historical dominance make them unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance bet.

• Operario home record: only 1 loss in 10 home matches this season.
• São Bernardo away record: 3 losses in 9 away matches, but recent away form is inconsistent.
• H2H: Operario unbeaten in 3 of 4 meetings, including both home wins.

BetBugs · Double ChancelostOperario or DrawEstimated chance75%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

High draw rates at halftime for both teams and low first-half scoring suggest a stalemate at the break is the most likely outcome.

• Operario first half record: 20% lead, 33% trail, 47% draw at halftime.
• São Bernardo first half record: 27% lead, 20% trail, 53% draw at halftime.
• H2H: 2 of 4 meetings were 0-0 at halftime.
• Both teams average 0.7 first-half goals, indicating low scoring early.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Operario's tendency to score later in matches and São Bernardo's second-half defensive vulnerabilities give the hosts an edge after the break.

• Operario scored 53% of their goals in the second half (0.8 per game).
• São Bernardo conceded 62% of their goals in the second half (0.8 per game).
• Operario won 4 of last 6 matches, with 3 wins coming from second-half goals.
• H2H: Operario scored second-half goals in both home wins.

BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostOperarioEstimated chance40%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

A draw at halftime followed by an Operario win is a plausible scenario given both teams' halftime draw tendencies and Operario's second-half strength.

• Operario drew at halftime in 47% of matches and won 50% of home matches.
• São Bernardo drew at halftime in 53% of matches and lost 33% of away matches.
• H2H: One meeting was 0-0 at halftime with Operario winning 1-0.

BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/OperarioEstimated chance25%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Historical H2H trends and both teams' moderate scoring rates suggest a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 goals likely.

• All 4 H2H meetings finished with under 2.5 goals, with 3 ending 1-0 or 2-1.
• Operario home matches average 2.6 total goals (15GF, 11GA in 10 games), but 6 of 10 had under 2.5.
• São Bernardo away matches average 2.78 total goals, but 5 of 9 had under 2.5.
• Both teams have moderate scoring rates: Operario 1.5 goals per game overall, São Bernardo 1.4.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

H2H history shows mostly one-sided scoring, and both teams have shown defensive solidity in recent matches, making a clean sheet likely.

• In 4 H2H meetings, both teams scored only once (the 2-1 Operario win in April 2026).
• Operario kept 3 clean sheets in last 6 home matches.
• São Bernardo failed to score in 2 of last 5 away matches.
• Operario home clean sheet rate: 30% (3/10), São Bernardo away clean sheet rate: 22% (2/9).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Operario's historical ability to shut out São Bernardo at home, combined with the visitors' occasional scoring struggles, gives a moderate chance of a home clean sheet.

• Operario kept 3 clean sheets in 10 home matches this season.
• São Bernardo failed to score in 2 of last 5 away matches.
• H2H: Operario kept clean sheets in both home meetings (1-0 wins).

BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSao Bernardo FC SP not to scoreEstimated chance35%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a history of goalless first halves in H2H, supporting under 0.5 first-half goals.

• Operario first half goals: 0.7 per game overall, 0.6 at home.
• São Bernardo first half goals: 0.7 per game overall, 0.67 away.
• In 4 H2H meetings, first half goals were scored in only 2 matches, with 2 ending 0-0 at halftime.
• Operario leading at halftime in only 20% of matches, São Bernardo in 27%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams have moderate corner counts, and H2H history shows low total corners, making under 9.5 corners a strong possibility.

• Operario average 4.1 corners per game, conceding 5.5 opponent corners (total 9.6).
• São Bernardo average 4.5 corners per game, conceding 5.7 opponent corners (total 10.2).
• In last 5 H2H meetings (data available for 4), total corners were: 5, 7, 9, 3 (average 6.0).
• Operario home corners: 4.8 per game, São Bernardo away corners: 4.2 per game.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams consistently see matches with over 4.5 cards, and their combined averages support a card-heavy game.

• Operario average 2.5 yellow cards per game, opponents average 2.9 (total 5.4).
• São Bernardo average 2.6 yellow cards per game, opponents average 2.3 (total 4.9).
• In last 5 matches, Operario matches averaged 5.2 cards, São Bernardo matches averaged 4.8 cards.
• Referee data unavailable, but both teams have consistent card rates above 4.5.