Botafogo SP1Gremio Novorizontino SP3

HT 1–1Wed 9 Sept 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges4–0100%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 13–9On targetOn target 1–5CornersCorners 8–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 04:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Draw or Novorizontino at 1.45 (edge +3pts) and Over 2.5 goals at 2.38 (edge +13pts).

Avoid the match winner market on Novorizontino and the first-half Over 0.5 goals, as both are priced near or above fair value.

Context

Novorizontino are third in Serie B with 46 points and hold a promotion play-off place. Botafogo SP are 15th with 31 points, only two points above the relegation line.
Novorizontino's away record of five wins, five draws and three losses shows they can take points on the road. Botafogo SP's home record of five wins, three draws and four losses is not strong enough to make this a clear home advantage. This contrast suggests Novorizontino can compete for a result even away from home.
- Novorizontino away record: 5 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses in 13 matches.
- Botafogo SP home record: 5 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses in 12 matches.
Botafogo SP defender Patrick Brey had started 23 Série B matches before his suspension.
His absence removes a regular left-back and forces a change on that flank. Felipe Vieira is the reported replacement, which alters Botafogo-SP's left-sided defensive and attacking structure. The enforced change could affect the team's balance, though Vieira's recent return from suspension offers a direct replacement option.
- Brey received his third yellow card in the 1-0 loss at Náutico.
- He had started 23 Série B matches before the suspension.
- Felipe Vieira had completed his suspension and was reported as the likely replacement.
ReportedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 04:53 · Europe/Bucharestge: Patrick Brey desfalca Botafogo-SP no jogo contra Novorizontinoge.globo.com · 5 Sep 2026
Novorizontino are in a promotion play-off spot and have won four of their last five matches. Botafogo SP are 15th and have lost three of their last five.
Novorizontino's attack has been productive, with three goals against Avai and four against Athletic Club in recent away games. Botafogo SP have struggled to score, failing to find the net in three of their last five matches. This gap in scoring form could make it difficult for Botafogo SP to keep up if Novorizontino score early.
- Novorizontino last five matches: 3-1 vs Avai, 2-1 vs Sport Recife, 4-1 vs Athletic Club, 3-0 vs America Mineiro, 0-0 vs CRB.
- Botafogo SP last five matches: 0-1 vs Nautico Recife, 1-2 vs Cuiaba, 0-3 vs Atletico Goianiense, 1-1 vs Criciuma, 1-0 vs São Bernardo.
Botafogo-SP sit 15th with 31 points, only two points above the bottom four.
A home loss could drop them into the relegation zone if Ceará and Avaí win. This table situation raises the incentive to protect a home result rather than treat the fixture as routine. The pressure may influence Botafogo-SP's approach, though the exact tactical response remains uncertain.
- Botafogo-SP are 15th with 31 points after the 26th round.
- Ceará matched Botafogo-SP’s points and sit directly below on goal difference.
- A Botafogo-SP loss plus wins for Ceará and Avaí would place Botafogo-SP in the bottom four.
ReportedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 04:53 · Europe/Bucharestge: Botafogo-SP mantém posição, mas vê Z-4 cada vez mais pertoge.globo.com · 6 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's superior away form and Botafogo SP's poor recent results make the away side the most likely winner.
- Novorizontino away record: 5W-5D-3L, 22 goals scored, 10 conceded in 13 away matches.
- Botafogo SP home record: 5W-3D-4L, 21 goals scored, 15 conceded in 12 home matches.
- Novorizontino last 5 form: WWWWD (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 12 and conceding 3.
- Botafogo SP last 5 form: LLLDW (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses), scoring 3 and conceding 7.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Novorizontino's strong form with Botafogo SP's struggles, the away side avoiding defeat is highly likely.
- Novorizontino unbeaten in last 5 (4W,1D).
- Botafogo SP have lost 3 of last 5.
- H2H last 5: Novorizontino 2W, 2D, Botafogo 1W.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Gremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's tendency to lead at half-time gives them an edge in the first-half result.
- Novorizontino led at half-time in 53% of matches, trailed in 13%.
- Botafogo SP led at half-time in 20%, trailed in 27%.
- Novorizontino first-half goal difference: +0.5 per match; Botafogo SP: 0.0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostGremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's ability to lead early and hold on makes the HT/FT double a plausible but lower-probability outcome.
- Novorizontino won 4 of last 5 matches, leading at half-time in 3 of those.
- Botafogo SP lost 3 of last 5, trailing at half-time in 2 of those losses.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostGremio Novorizontino SP / Gremio Novorizontino SPEstimated chance30%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's high-scoring attack and Botafogo SP's defensive vulnerabilities suggest a match with at least three goals.
- Novorizontino average 2.0 goals scored per match overall, 1.69 away.
- Botafogo SP average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded overall, but home matches average 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded.
- Novorizontino last 5 matches: 3,2,4,3,0 goals scored (avg 2.4).
- Botafogo SP last 5 matches: 0,1,0,1,1 goals scored (avg 0.6), but conceded 1,2,3,1,0 (avg 1.4).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Botafogo SP's home scoring ability and Novorizontino's occasional away defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.
- Botafogo SP have scored in 4 of last 5 home matches.
- Novorizontino have conceded in 3 of last 5 away matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Novorizontino's strong first-half scoring record makes a first-half goal likely.
- Novorizontino average 0.9 first-half goals scored, 0.4 conceded.
- Botafogo SP average 0.3 first-half goals scored, 0.3 conceded.
- Novorizontino led at half-time in 53% of matches, Botafogo SP in 20%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Novorizontino average 1.1 second-half goals scored (2.0 total - 0.9 first half).
- Botafogo SP average 0.9 second-half goals scored (1.2 total - 0.3 first half).
- Combined second-half average: 2.0 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, making over 9.5 total corners a reasonable expectation.
- Botafogo SP average 5.7 corners per match, concede 7.3 (opponent corners).
- Novorizontino average 6.7 corners per match, concede 5.5.
- Combined average corners: 12.4 per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages suggest a total above 8.5 is achievable.
- Botafogo SP average 3.7 shots on target per match, concede 4.0.
- Novorizontino average 5.9 shots on target per match, concede 2.5.
- Combined average shots on target: 9.6 per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The disciplinary averages point to a match with several cards, making over 3.5 cards a reasonable bet.
- Botafogo SP average 2.1 yellow cards per match, opponents 1.9.
- Novorizontino average 1.7 yellow cards per match, opponents 2.1.
- Combined average cards: 3.8 per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 38% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; the price already reflects the directional read and the edge is below the 5-point threshold for MEDIUM confidence.

Prediction history

Gremio Novorizontino SP has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Gremio Novorizontino SP has fulfilled 2 of 4 win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 45.8% and an expected fulfilment of 1.8. The missed predictions included one draw and one loss, while the current probability of 45% sits within the historical range of 45-48%. Away from home, they have fulfilled 1 of 1 predictions, suggesting recent away performance aligns with projections.

Recent evidence for Gremio Novorizontino SP4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jul·Serie B