Londrina1Cuiaba MT0

HT 1–0Tue 20 Oct 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 35%–65%ShotsShots 12–24On targetOn target 2–7CornersCorners 2–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Oct 2026, 23:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Round 34 pits relegation-threatened Londrina, without a permanent head coach since 10 October, against a Cuiabá side chasing the G6.

The draw or a Cuiabá win is the likeliest result, and at 1.45 it carries some appeal; the first half to end level at 2.05 and a Cuiabá win at 2.60 also offer something.

Context

Micale's removal came with the club inside the relegation zone, so this fixture falls inside an unsettled technical period rather than a normal week. The loss of both assistants as well means the entire senior staff changed, not just the figurehead, which can affect training patterns and the starting XI. Because no permanent successor has been announced in the club's own feed, Londrina's tactical plan for Cuiabá is unclear and expected lineups are harder to project.
- Londrina announced on 10 October 2026 that head coach Rogério Micale had left the club by mutual agreement.
- Assistants Joelton Urtiga and Dênis Alves departed in the same announcement.
- Londrina drew 2-2 at Athletic in round 33 on 13 October, its first match after the departures.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 23:47 · Europe/Bucharest
The two clubs arrive at opposite ends of the table, which shapes how each is likely to approach a Tuesday night at the Estádio VGD. Cuiabá carry the cushion to chase a result on the road, while Londrina's position makes a home win disproportionately valuable in their survival fight. The standings are from early October, before rounds 32 and 33, so the points gap may have moved by kickoff.
- As of 3 October 2026, Londrina were 18th on 28 points, inside the relegation zone.
- The same standings placed Cuiabá 10th on 46 points, outside the G6 playoff positions.
- Cuiabá lost 1-0 at home to Avaí on 11 October 2026, with Daniel Penha scoring.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 23:47 · Europe/Bucharest
Kauan's scoring run arrives during Cuiabá's late push for the G6 and gives a low-scoring side an in-form young outlet in the attacking third. It matters to this fixture because the visitors' threat may run through him rather than through a settled senior striker. The output is a short seven-match snapshot, so whether he starts and how Londrina handle him remains the relevant variable.
- Scout Pelo Mundo reported on 3 October 2026 that Cuiabá's Kauan Cristtyan had four goals and one assist in his previous seven Série B games.
- Sub-20 tracking posts list Kauan Cristtyan (born 2006) among Cuiabá players starting in rounds 30-32.
ReportedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 23:47 · Europe/Bucharest
The bulletin is the club's most recent squad-health update before the match and names Cachoeira among the players being managed by the medical department. A finger fracture rarely rules an attacker out of a league fixture, so its practical effect on Londrina's options is likely limited. It is the only fitness item the club published in the week of the game, which leaves the rest of the squad status unstated.
- Londrina's medical bulletin dated 13 October 2026 listed Guilherme Cachoeira as in treatment after fracturing the fourth finger of his left hand.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 23:47 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.60
The read
Cuiaba are clearly the stronger side over the season while Londrina sit in the relegation zone without a permanent coach.
- Cuiaba are 6W-5D-4L on 47 points, 18 clear of Londrina
- Cuiaba score 1.2 and concede 0.87 per game overall
- Londrina are 1W-2D-4L at home and concede 1.43 per home match
- Cuiaba have lost only 4 of 15 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCuiaba MTEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Both teams produce very little before half-time, making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Londrina average 0.53 first-half goals and 1.0 against
- Cuiaba average 0.4 first-half goals and 0.33 against
- Cuiaba's away first-half goals against is 0.43
- Neither side averages more than 0.6 first-half goals
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is moderate and evenly split, keeping a level half common.
- Londrina average 0.6 second-half goals and 0.6 against
- Cuiaba average 0.8 second-half goals and 0.53 against
- Londrina's home second-half goals for and against are both 0.71
- Combined second-half expectations sit near 1.5 goals
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Two low-scoring teams, one of them draw-heavy on the road, point toward a tight contest. Cuiaba are clearly the stronger side over the season while Londrina sit in the relegation zone without a permanent coach.
- Cuiaba have drawn 7 of their 16 away league games
- Londrina drew 2-2 at Athletic in round 33
- Cuiaba are 6W-5D-4L on 47 points, 18 clear of Londrina
- Cuiaba score 1.2 and concede 0.87 per game overall
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Cuiaba MTEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce very little before half-time, making a level first half the most likely outcome. Londrina's habit of conceding before the break gives Cuiaba a slight first-half edge.
- Londrina average 0.53 first-half goals and 1.0 against
- Cuiaba average 0.4 first-half goals and 0.33 against
- Londrina concede 1.0 first-half goals per game
- Londrina concede 0.71 first-half goals at home
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Cuiaba MTEstimated chance78%

Goals7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both attacks are modest and Cuiaba's defence is the tightest part of the evidence.
- Cuiaba concede only 0.87 goals per game overall
- Londrina have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 home matches
- Londrina average 1.13 goals scored per game
- Cuiaba average 1.0 goals per away match
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Each defence is capable of a shutout and Cuiaba's away scoring is limited.
- Cuiaba kept 5 clean sheets in 15 matches
- Londrina kept 3 clean sheets in 7 home matches
- Cuiaba only scored in 4 of 7 away matches
- Londrina failed to score in 5 of 15 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina's attack is modest and Cuiaba's defence is the strongest unit in the evidence.
- Londrina average 1.29 goals at home
- Londrina scored in only 4 of 7 home matches
- Cuiaba concede 0.87 goals per game overall
- Londrina average 1.13 goals scored overall
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonLondrina under 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiaba's away output stays around a single goal, and Londrina have kept home clean sheets.
- Cuiaba average 1.0 goals per away match
- Cuiaba scored in only 4 of 7 away matches
- Cuiaba average 1.2 goals overall
- Londrina kept 3 clean sheets in 7 home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCuiaba MT under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Combined first-half scoring near one goal makes at least one goal before the break more likely than not.
- Londrina concede 1.0 first-half goals per game
- Londrina average 0.53 first-half goals
- Cuiaba average 0.4 first-half goals
- Combined first-half expectations sit near one goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.14
The read
First-half scoring from both teams is rare given the low early goal rates.
- Neither team averages more than 0.6 first-half goals
- Cuiaba concede 0.33 first-half goals per game
- Cuiaba score 0.29 first-half goals away
- Londrina average 0.53 first-half goals
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined second-half scoring is modest and often falls short of two goals.
- Londrina average 0.6 second-half goals and 0.6 against
- Cuiaba average 0.8 second-half goals and 0.53 against
- Cuiaba's away second-half goals against is 0.86
- Londrina's home second-half goals for and against are both 0.71
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina's home games and their latest match sit below the line.
- Londrina average 5.8 corners, opponents 4.6
- Cuiaba average 6.2 corners, opponents 4.93
- Londrina's home matches average about 10.3 combined corners
- Londrina's latest match produced 7 corners in total
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 11.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiaba's away matches and their low shot output pull combined totals below the line.
- Cuiaba average 11.67 opponent shots against
- Cuiaba away average 11.71 shots for and 16.14 against
- Cuiaba's away matches average about 27.9 combined shots
- Londrina average 13.93 opponent shots against
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 30.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Londrina's on-target output keeps combined totals near the line, and recent games have pushed higher.
- Londrina average 4.53 on target, opponents 4.07
- Cuiaba average 3.73 on target, opponents 3.07
- Cuiaba away average 2.71 on target and 4.43 against
- Londrina's recent matches have produced several double-digit on-target totals
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Cuiaba MT: 2/4 recent winner projections matched

2 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Cuiaba MT matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Cuiaba MT4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

3 Jul·Serie B